Sitemap - 2024 - The BondBeat

2024: Fed CUTS 100bps, 10s rip 100bps; SURPRISE(s)! UST DEMAND revival (MS); 10s '4.50% +/- 25bps in 2025' -Yardeni and more ...

while WE slept: USTs bull steepen, light volume, w/RM buyin' 20s; 10yr streak; bond vigilantes engaged; a few 'fav charts' and more. happy holidays and new year!

while WE slept: steepening continues; 'For What It's Worth'; SPY/TLT > 50dMA (still); AND from 10s TO 6% to, "...Risk To 3.248/2.514" and more ...

while WE slept: 'USTs are relatively contained'; "FED PLOTLINES"; 'Exp for lwr yields at 2-year low' -FMS; MARG & more

while WE slept: USTs down, moving w/UK, Ger data flow; bonds 'agitated by Fed'; "...Treasury Yields at 6% on Fiscal Risks" -TROW; GROWTH > value; #2025DartBoard

while WE slept: USTs rangebound ahead of PMIs; ... "Inflation Rising Again"; cover indicator ...

weekly observations (12.16.24): #2025 dart thrown by best in show, "Range-Bound, not Forgotten" and "Lament of a Bear" (Rosie)

while WE slept: risk ON, rates cheaper, light volumes; "...most bonkers chart of the year goes to…"; and "Economic Growth Downgraded in 2025" -WFC

while WE slept: SNB SURPRISE! CUT, USTs offered; 'mkt is here' (higher growth & equities, lower 'flation, ylds a positive supply shock -DB); something new / different for those 'huntin yield'

while WE slept: USTs a touch cheaper (China Yuan story, then 'rugpull'); "The GFC's long shadow" -DB; "110-year history of U.S. inflation and global conflicts" -PIMCO

while WE slept: RATES aggressively unch, RBA 'dovish hold'; IF Dec AND Jan cuts, THEN buy FF -MS (via BBG); "...the 10yr heads for 5%+ in 2025" -ING; does CRB=flation?

while WE slept: risk ON, USTs 'off', thanks, China; no DEC Santa PAUSE (but on hold ALL of 2025 -BNP) and more ...

weekly observations (12.09.24): URATE UP, yields down; UST "Liquidity has deteriorated moderately over the past two months"; 2025 surprise -- a Japan BID for bonds?

while WE slept: USTs touch lower ahead of NFP; "Bitcoin's 2025 Outlook" -Opening Bell; (JPM clients) outright LONGS highest in year; 'Earls home on the RANGE

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly bear-steepening after yesterday's Waller induced bull-steepening'; "Less is more"; #2025 dart-throwing (UBS, lower rates)

while WE slept: USTs MIXED, Wall-E = Santa PAUSE grinch as he 'leans' towards Dec CUT

while WE slept: USTs weaker (belly) on light (55% 10d) volumes

weekly observations (12.02.24) and a monthly chart; "Happy bonds = happy stocks in 2025" -BAML

happy thanksgiving (and #2025 by JPM)

while WE slept: equity futures lower, bonds BID; #2025 dart-throwing exercise continues (BAML rates); "Option Traders Bet on Deep Treasury-Market Selloff Within Weeks"

while WE slept: UST futs volume ~80% of 10d avg; #2025 dart-throwing exercise continues (DB, stocks)

while WE slept: stocks / bonds BID, USD pressured; "Navigating Trump 2.025" (-DB #2025 dart-throwing continues); "Bond Market Halts Brutal Run as Buyers Pounce on 4.5% Yields"

weekly observations (11.25.24): "Fixed income funds are still underweight duration vs the benchmark", '25 inflation boom & more #2025 dart-throwing contestants

while WE slept: (EZ) Bonds soar in reaction to dire EZ PMIs, USTs catch bid;

while WE slept: 'contained' start for USTs; 2yy 'More signs of trend exhaustion' (CitiFX); 2025 dart-throwing contest continues (#2025 -Wells and #BeachBoys)

while WE slept: bonds on the 'backfoot'; 2025 dart-throwing contest continues (#2025 -GS); ALSO "Bond Yields are Too HIGH!" and #ZweigRules ...

while WE slept: USTs cheapening ('consolidation mode') o/n; USTs 2024 'gains dwindle' (Santa Pause?); 2025 dart-throwing contest continues (#2025 -MS)

weekly observations (11.18.24): ...and the 2025 dart-throwing contest begins...; holidays and soft landing scenario analysis

while WE slept: USTs under pressure as Santa PAUSE; "Could Trump be Deflationary?"

while WE slept: USTs soft, GILTS underperforming; sticky CPI recaps and victory laps and a message (from gold) and a key chart (on tariff impacts)

while WE slept: USTs are 'incrementally firmer' ahead of CPI; #Got$TMF?

while WE slept: USTs soft; BITC 'eyes 100k'; (yield uptrend)'signs of exhaustion'

while WE slept: USTs, Oil softer, eq, DXY BID, on thin, holiday trading; "Fed Expectations Are Wrong" -Apollo; 'US bond returns fading'

weekly observations (11.11.24): TLINEs tested (BAML); '3' handle 10s coming (BMO, TD); long 5y breaks (BNP); long 5s (UBS); Apollo: "A Rebound in Growth Is Coming"

while WE slept: bonds are BID as MOFCOM (China)disappoints; watch the FRIs; 'US Bond Yields Nearing ‘Alert Level’ For Stocks' -Amundi and more ...

while WE slept: US equity and bond yields calm ahead of rate CUT; 2yy vs 4.25%; 'bout that risk of (CRE)'double defaults'; "Kamilton" -Cembalest

while WE slept: USTs cheaper / steeper as Trump trade (re)grips markets

while WE slept: USTs aggressively UNCH on 'Back to the Future' Day; "Stock Valuations Reasonable"; 10yy "engulfing candlestick"; 60/40 STILL not dead yet

while WE slept: "DXY and US yields softer as Trump trades unwind after weekend polls..."

weekly observations (11.04.24): 10s oversold, rate risks 'asymmetrically skewed to the downside', "Awaiting Clarity, Avoiding Treasuries?" and more to read / consider into days / week ahead

while WE slept: equitiues firm (AMZN, INTC), bonds UNCH into the (NFP)breach; #30yyMONTHLY (momentum vs support); bond vol keeps rising...

while WE slept: equity futures and bond yields down; growth defying FOMC projections; issuance; UK vigilantes and '...ratio of gold to USTs show“Trump Effect” crushin' bonds...'

while WE slept: USTs (and NYY) stayin' alive (sorry, not sorry); IF Fed ruled by rules; 'tis season to be easin'; bonds relief rally ...

while WE slept: USTs are cheaper / steeper; history lessons from US elections; index extensions; 2yr BREAKS; debt delinq probs for higher inc folks 8.43% (FRBNY)

while WE slept: geopolitical risk premia removed, supply on tap, USTs under pressure; 'Recent bear steepening appears election-related' (BNP); AI says more dovish FOMC stmts (DB)

weekly observations (10.28.24): NFP precaps, dipORtunities, event risks and Statue of Liberty visits keeping pace ...

while WE slept: USTs are flat; HIMCO (policy tightest in 22yrs) vs RBA (tight policy ≠ tight liquidity) -- you choose

while WE slept: USTs bid(following Bunds, Gilts); Munis hit, "In late 1971, the Fed declared victory over inflation" & more ...

while WE slept: USTs under modest pressure ahead of 20y auction; daily declines (S&P) and a streak; the NEXT 10yrs of returns; magazine covers and this MOVEs for you!

while WE slept: bonds on backfoot; "Bond traders get it wrong again" -BBG; 55wMA > 200dMA (CitiFX);

while WE slept: USTs modestly lower on below avg volumes; (stk)mkts rotating towards Trump win scenario as global money supply on the rise (MS)

happy Crash(and Glue Factory)-A-versary

weekly observations (10.21.24): The First National Bank of Lindsay, OK (is, well, NOT okay), 10s vs 200dMA (DipOrTunity?), "No Landing Continues" -Apollo

while WE slept: FI contained, Gilts hit on data, EGBs & USTs attempt to move higher; ReSale's TALL Tales; 10yy WEEKLY near support (will shorts cover?); ample reserve regime ... and the curve

while WE slept: bonds build on gains (UK gilts lead, CPI); HOPE springs eternal (BAML FMS on growth expectations); and a shop moves neutral small vs large caps

while WE slept: Waller + Earl = bond bid; happy flash (yield)Crash-A-Versary (2014)

while WE slept: UST (futs)tight range, low (holiday) volumes; #GotSteepeners? unwind of TBILL bubble? not JUST UoMICH inflation fears, see 5yr infl swaps

weekly observations (10.14.24): "Time to leave cash?"

while WE slept: markets FLAT; Fed (Bostic) contemplates PAUSE? 'bout that there 'SuperCore'; Goldilocks on recession (and more...)

while WE slept: USTs are modestly lower; FOMC mins 'most hawkish since April.'; did you catch the move in The Move?

while WE slept: 'Bonds are incrementally firmer'; only thing certain is uncertainty (NFIB?);"Short Treasury Bets Emerge as Big Rate Cut Expectations Vanish"

while WE slept: bonds are flat; over extended longs (Barclays); when get to (four)forks in the road, take them (and by THEM, DB means EXIT from short 10s)

while WE slept: 10yy above 4% (highest since 8/8th); 'bond traders buckle up for 'no landing''; surprise; (and a h/t to reader for pointing out mislabeled visual)

weekly observations (10.07.24): when the facts change (JPM changes a call...); Multiple job holders hit record high; spec net SHORT 10s hit record high ...

while WE slept: USTs flat; "Traders Unwind Long Treasury Bets..."

while WE slept: USTs firmer (back TO pre JPOW levels); "...over time..."; #Got5s?; "Central Banking Beauty Contest" -FRBNY

while WE slept: bonds 'modestly softer'; BONDs still NOT dead, 'bottom line ... 60/40 at an all-time high" -BBG visual; SP500 biggest YTD advance of the 21st century -DB and...

weekly observations (09.30.24): month-end coming…#GotBONDS?; "...The 10y UST yield may be too low" (BNP); learning from history of steepeners (JPM); some 10y shorts covered (move out to BONDS)

while WE slept: USTs UNCH (lagging EZ); NFP precaps and some more insights on China ahead of data...

while WE slept: USTs, EZ bid (hope for ECB cut); UST investors message, "Chill!" (10s sub 2%) -Rosie; "Biggest Futures Trade on Record Notched in SOFR Market" -EBB

while WE slept: USTs bid ahead of 5s; 2yy on verge of 50bps DROP? FRBNY on UST liquidity in / around month-end...

while WE slept: USTs cheaper as risk ON 'round the world (sponsored by China); "4 risks that markets are still concerned about" (DB); 'bout askin' better question (Hussman); FRBNY on UST liquidity

while WE slept:

weekly observations (09.23.24): Bowman SAYS; Global Wall's latest (re)calibrations and updated f'casts ... what, ME worry?

while WE slept: bonds weaker on heels of BoJ, Bowman (dissenter) to speak; Mfg "Bouncing back"; WHY rate cut = bad (for bonds) …

while WE slept: USTs 'bout UNCH; "Sell the fact..." (BMO); "An emergency cut without an emergency" (UBS) and more FOMC recaps / victory laps ...

while WE slept: USTs are lower; startgin cutting cycles IN election years -RTRS; "Record Wagers on Fed Cuts at Risk If Powell Fails to Go Big"

while WE slept: USTs flat; mkts perception of 50; no news = 50;

while WE slept: USTs '...essentially unchanged...'; Dudley SAYS Fed to go BIG (50); reasons to be optimistic (Global 60/40 at all time highs -DB)

weekly observations (09.16.24): steepener profits booked, 2yy shorts stopped, specs increase shorts and ... Lehman

while WE slept: USTs are bid; Nicky T offers up a 'Faust 50', Williams concurs and so, 25bps vs 50bps cut back up to a coinflip

while WE slept:

while WE slept: USTs bid on heels of oil slide, 3yr auction, rate cutting ahead of CPI and Harris; About Last Night ...

while WE slept: USTs backing up a touch, within yesterday's range, calm b4 (debate)storm; #Got3s?; shifting steepeners exposure (JPM); tech analysis

while WE slept: USTs pulling back; "A lower low in 10y yields" (CitiFX), stock jockeys (MS) watchin' Fed and bonds and, "The Great Rate Divide" (10s and FFs)

weekly observations (09.09.24): "Equipoise"? POSITIONS matter as specs net short FV, TY and equity flows "Choppy"; stay with steepeners. NFP recaps, victory laps...

while WE slept: USTs bid, lag EZ; 'Bonds vs commods: Bottomed and turning up' bonds for the win (BAML); another (2yy)threshold breached (NAUTILUS)

while WE slept: USTs flat; "Cheering the Yield Curve? Not So Fast" -BBG; 50bp bets on rise -BBG; cheering 'pump joy' ... yes!

while WE slept: USTs 'slightly firmer'; "Blackout pricing and the September cut" (DB) and "...Japan has already converged back with the US…" (Edwards)

while WE slept: USTs flat ahead of mfg PMI, bunds bid, JGBs under pressure; "biggest inversion between FF1 and FF12 futures in 36 years, at -193bps. This suggests the market expects a ~2ppt cut"

weekly observations (09.03.24): calm before NFP, staying with steepeners, getting short 2s IF and stayin' short 10s; 'Fed Pivots and Baby Aspirin' and oh, just 'throw the stick' ...

while WE slept: bonds firm on EZ 'flation data; 'USTs longest 'winning' streak since 2021'

while WE slept: USTs bid, follow EZ; 'Macro HFs turned long on USTs while fund flows into bonds outpacing equity flows recently…'; "T-bill and chill" NOT such a no-brainer anymore...

while WE slept: USTs under 'modest pressure' BUT...; "Going short UST10Y" (DB); "The Sausage Indicator" (Bespoke); "Pensions versus stock market holdings of US household" (FRED)

while WE slept: USTs FLAT; "Party Conventional Wisdom" (think bull steepener) ...

weekly observations (08.26.24): ‘the time has come’ (met w/the largest spec net short 10s EVER…?)

while WE slept: USTs in 'holding pattern'; the economics of college football; "MORTGAS Misery" and 'Professor 2yr UST' weigh in ...

while WE slept: bonds are lower (PMIs); Happy BDAY Long Bonds! -818k = Benchmark revisions recaps, victory laps (& 'official' lack of response); 'bond mkt best economist on the planet' -Goncalves

while WE slept: bonds are flat; "Bond Traders Amassing Historic Level of Risk on Rate-Cut Bets"; 5bps of action from Jackson?

while WE slept: USTs 'contained' w/i 6tick range; "...the recent rebound in risk sentiment would, all else equal, argue against more aggressive action..." -DB

while WE slept: USTs bid (lag BUNDS); Daly supports cuts (FT); BIGger net short 10s; Goldilocks' updated (lower) recession call (and on Team 25bps ONLY)

weekly observations (08.19.24): fade Harris trades; UST liquidity remains 'orderly'; stay in / with steepeners; REAL FF rates; econ FINE, spoos best week since Oct;

while WE slept: USTs contained, quarter point 'will do'; Global Wall takes latest econ inkblot test results & FREDdy Fed says econ resilience

while WE slept: markets are quiet, USTs 'contained' ahead of ReSale TALES; CPI 'as expected' and 'lookin' good (or up 50th straight month)

while WE slept: USTs UNCH; NZ surprises, UK 'flation cooperates, US clears inflation decks and Bostic not YET buyin' in; HF Mount Lucas fades bond bid

while WE slept: USTs in narrow RANGE; NFIB UP (but); a dip to buy? -CitiFX; map of dot plot mavericks and their net hawkishness -DB; just say NO (to Fed put)

while WE slept: PBOC v bond bulls; 'a blessedly quiet start' (Japan OUT); bonds are BACK (as a hedge); Tails at auctions are BACK (at auctions)...

weekly observations (08.12.24): downward RATES revisions, sky's NOT fallin' and finally the trade of the year(s) -- the steepener -- workin!! #GotDURATION?

while WE slept: USTs recovering; "a 4% 10 year yield, even in a 2.5% inflation environment still represents pretty good value long term versus equities or cash.” -PIMCOs Ivascyn

while WE sleep: bonds BID ahead of claims and auction; 100yrs of VIX (BNP); 'enter the bond vigilantes' (BBG) and "Watch The (Modified) Duncan Leading Index" (EPB)

while WE slept: Uchida sticksave (2011 ECB analog?)

while WE slept: all is well ... remain calm now 'only' 75% chance of 50bp CUT; Too far, too fast? (BNP)

while WE slept: adult swim, NIKKEI's no good very bad day; FOMCs 7 cuts behind (and other rules...); The Labor Market Cracks - What's Next? (EPB Macro)

weekly observations (08.05.24): it's the end of the world as we know it ... "Got that Sahm-ertime Sadness" -DB; 'change of call' (pretty much everyone)

while WE slept: bonds BID (ISM, INTC) ahead of NFP; '3' handle is the new '4' handle ... 10yy biggest 1d drop this year!

while WE slept: USTs firm, GILTS leading o/n; happy downgradeAversary; FOMC recap / victory laps as S&P has best FOMC DAY in 2yrs

while WE slept: BoJ HIKES, EZ CPI spikes; "10y yields tend to decline around Chair Powell’s press conferences" -DB; it's time to CUT -Sahm

while WE slept: EZ GDP beat (BUT); "175 in 18?" (DB on rate CUTS); a steepening trigger (2s10s > 3yMA -Nautilus)

while WE slept: ; "There is a slowdown, but it is not a slump" -MS; USTs set for 3rd monthly gain (longest streak since 2021)

weekly observations (07.29.24): bullish tech setup (BAML); REAL funds TIGHT, to be cut (BREAN); stay LONG 5s (BMO) & more; PCE 'awkwardly stagnant at elevated levels' ... TESLA motorcycle?

while WE slept: USTs rangebound ahead of PCE; Global Wall on GDP, NFP, Sahm rule and some"R-Stargazing" ...

while WE slept: USTs FLAT ahead of flash PMIs; "The facts have changed, so I’ve changed my mind ..." -DUDLEY (Fed should cut rates NOW)

while WE slept: USTs are steady in quiet newsflow; "... constrictive monetary and fiscal factors..." (=lower yields -HIMCO) vs "Where Is the Slowdown?" (Apollo)

weekly observations (07.22.24): market pricing = rate cuts already (WFC visual); 30% population w/LARGE equity portfolio (supporting consumption -Apollo); Dr. Copper on rates; CrowdSTRUCK'd

while WE slept: USTs steady, equities under pressure; "Fed priced to be MOST dovish in world" (may be wrong -DB) and this same pricing driving historical EQUITY price action ...

while WE slept: Bonds bid following JPOW; Trump trade (bull / bear steepener?); "The earlier reactions point to a potential increase of ~15bp in 10y UST…" -DB; "Why wait?" -GS

while WE slept: USTs dipped on open but then dragged off lows by EGBs; Trump trades vs 'What Does Falling Inflation Mean for Stocks?'

weekly observations (07.15.24): change of Fed call; buy 5s on dip; longs of 10s and ...

while WE slept: USTs give back some CPI gains; future of the '60/40'; 'Treasuries Wipe Out This Year’s Loss as Traders Bet on Rate Cuts' -BBG

while WE slept: bonds are 'flat/lower' ahead of CPI; "The Kuiper Belt.." (DB on 100yrs of BAA vs 3m TBILL yld); 'Bond Traders Built Bets on a Treasury Rally Each Day in July' -BBG

while WE slept: USTs modestly firmer ahead of JPOW, supply ; policy rules = SEPT cut; "...it is starting to look like rate cuts are too late" -UBS; 2s to 2% ?

while WE slept: USTs softer ahead of JPOW, supply; FOMC mins NLP Analysis: Weakened consensus (Barclays); immigration lowered infl (25-50bps, DB); 2yy 3.70% tgt

while WE slept: USTs slightly underperforming Bunds/Gilts; "Wall Street’s Big Bond Bet Revives Before Pivotal Inflation Data" (Citi, JPM and TD targets)

weekly observations (07.08.24): NFP recaps and (Team Rate CUT) victory laps (REVISIONS); CPI precaps; Monetary Policy Report ...

while WE slept: USTs a touch firmer, steeper ahead of NFP. Williams on uncertainty, the Sahm RULE and "Schrödinger’s excess savings" (ABN)

while WE slept: positions squared (shorts covered, flatteners stopped out) ahead of NFP, long weekend; 10yy YTD annotated (JPM)

while WE slept: 'Treasuries lower but above Tuesday's 109-07 base'; Trump Re-election Odds & 30y Realz (Citi); "Taking time means tightening" (UBS) and ... {WSL ELECTION<Go>}

while WE slept: USTs 'incrementally firmer' ahead of JPOW & JOLTS; USTs pricing Trump2.0 (DB, Yardeni, BBG, ING ...)? Maybe it's just 'UPflation' (BBG)

while WE slept: FI down (OAT strength faded) USTs following; Q2 in review (DB); "Elections Have Consequences" (MS); "Fed’s Rate-Cut Delay Won’t Hold Back the Tide of Global Easing" (BBG)

weekly observations (07.01.24): flatteners and short breaks (BMO); skewed risks into NFP (BNP); steepeners (MS) ... something for everyone

while WE slept: USTs 'moderately cheaper', steeper on ~95% 30d volumes

while WE slept: Bonds modestly softer in a continuation of the prior day’s losses; month-end extensions recon; BI says: awaiting bull steepening, 10s TO 3.79 by y/e & 1st CUT in NOV

while WE slept: FI softer in to supply; "Bond Traders Boldly Bet on 300 Basis Points of Fed Cuts by March"; #Got5s?

while WE slept: bonds rangebound ahead of confidence, supply and DESPITE Daly; BBB-3m TBILLS FLAT -DB; "On track for a soft landing" -UBS; "Deciphering the Disinflation Process" -FRBNY; bonds cheap

while WE slept: Bonds mixed, USTs contained, Bunds to session lows; "How Long Will High Rates Last? Bond Markets Say Maybe Forever" -BBG; bonds signal stock correction -ASC

weekly observations (06.24.24): Buyers on DIPS, staying SHORT and/or NEUTRAL … a range of RATES views and increasing S&P f’cast; who buys USTs in QT (hint: NOT HFs)

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly firmer' into PMI and Barkin; triple-witchin' watchin'; BIG rate CUT bets; “good news is good news” -Jimmy P

while WE slept: bonds are at lower end of range; "US Rates: Lower yields, but caution is warranted" -CitiFX; bonds are ALMOST back -BBG; 60/40 STILL not dead -BBG

while WE slept: USTs flat on light volumes; 2s10s steepeners(BNP); R* trendin' higher (DB); 'Is 60-40 still dead? Absolutely not!' (AOR?) and WMTs recession signal...

while WE slept: USTs cheaper / steeper on 105% 30d volumes; Global Wall getting flat / short 10s, 5s) as DATA > Fedspeak

weekly observations (06.17.24): some gettin' SHORT 10s others sellin' to get FLAT;'2-year T-Note yield says that the Fed Funds target rate is more than half a point too high.'

while WE slept: USTs bull FLATTENING (geopolitical risk OFF) on above avg volumes; 'PPI missed but details stronger' and 'Treasuries Head Toward Late 2023 Highs in Relief Rally' (total return)

before I hit the lights...CPI and FOMC reCAP and Global Wall Street's victory lap A thon ...

while WE slept: belly BID on ~110% vol; "Bond Traders Quick to Abandon Long Wagers Before Fed Meeting, CPI Data"(BBG)

while WE slept: USTs bid on strong vol; "Narrative fallacy" (HSBC) and stocks always better than bonds BUT ... valuations?

while WE slept: USTs cheaper on strong volumes; 10s back to 1800 (look cheap relative TO MA); JPMs updated call ...

weekly observations (06.10.24)

while WE slept: USTs ~ unch on light vol; "Cutting into an upturn"; 1st cut now JULY (vs Sept -Tchir); "Global Economic Outlook Improving"

while WE slept: USTs 'marginally' weaker on light volumes; "10-Year Treasury Yield is Too High" (Paulsen); 'Long-Term Yields Are About To Spike Again' (Goldilocks)

while WE slept: USTs marginally lower in QUIET pre ADP trading (volumes ~70% avg); "are we all just tradin' energy?"; "Is the Fed Put Back?" (Yardeni chart); today vs 1950s (DB)

while WE slept: USTs 'creeping' higher, belly leading on firm volumes; "Enthralling noise" and "Fed Expectations Moving Around a Lot"

while WE slept: USTs xtend gains (flattening) on light volumes; here we go again (GME); a nuanced lean LONG, "... via equi-notional 2s/5s flatteners..." (JPM)

weekly observations (06.03.24): 'better late than never' (BAML), PCEs rounding exercise (everyone :)), equity positions rangezilla (DB); specs NET LONG BONDS!?!

while WE slept: USTs lower/flatter (EU CPI touch hot) on light volumes; gentle reminder: #4pm is the new 3pm

while WE slept: USTs 'modest' bid on light volumes; Bostic and Duds SAY? Techs Thurs; "Bonds Are Still Crashing"; large language models = FED HIKE b4 CUT

while WE slept: USTs cheaper / steeper on avg volumes; "A proxy for R-Star" and "The Fed Cut Reflexivity Paradox" ...

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly twisting steeper'; 'mkt removing CB CUTs'; "Disinflation Dissipating: reflation risk rising..."

weekly observations (05/28/24): Rational exuberance (BNP on US consumer); flattening floundering (BMO) and ... Fed’s Favorite Underlying Inflation Gauge Is Seen Cooling (HOPE springs eternally...)

while WE slept: USTs UNCH; 'Moving 1st CUT back to SEPT' -Goldilocks; "There Are No Easy Bond Trades Is 2024's Lesson" and "Atlas shrugged as bonds steal Nvidia's thunder" -BBG

while WE slept: USTs 'aggressively UNCH' on light volumes (earlier Hamptons Hedge?); Supercore trending higher and ... "The golden rule of Maurice Allais"

while WE slept: belly leads USTs cheaper on light volumes; "Bond Traders Trim Fed Rate Cut Bets With Treasury Shorts Revived"; #Got20s?

while WE slept: USTs higher, light volumes; "Long bond futures positioning back to all-time highs" and shelter 'flation may be on the rise ...

while WE slept: USTs steeper w/quiet start; 'Anything But Bonds’ stratEgery 'bout over; HOPE — not a strategy — springs eternally; MSs midyear (S&P) mark2mkt

weekly observations (05/20/24): 30s on track for 3rd worst ann return since 1919 (BAML); get NEUTRAL (BARCAP covers short) and Scottie Scheffler showing up to Valhalla today ...

while WE slept: USTs steeper/cheaper; FED to markets, 'higher for longer', MARKETS to Fed, 'pivot 2.0 party fires up bond bulls'

while WE slept: USTs 'twisting flatter' on strong volumes; better data not yet good but (BAD NEWS = GOOD and so) victory laps surely will be taken ...

ahead of CPI and ReSale TALES ...

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly bull-steepening after another somnambulant session', 50% 30d avg volumes literally defining calm before the storm...

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly bull steepening on 65-70% 30d volume'; 'Half of 10-year yield increase this year come on CPI days'

weekly observations (05.13.24): CPI of the tiger (BAML), ROUNDING error (BMO) and more on CPI; "High-Risk Options Bet on Bond Rally At Risk of Losing Millions"

while WE slept: USTs richer, longer end leadin'; AND...the 'ole 'Frying pan pattern'

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly cheaper and steeper' on LIGHT volumes; "...we project 10s down 85bps by mid 2025"; "Signs of Struggle"

while WE slept: USTs cheaper/steeper (concession?)on above avg volumes; RIKS cuts, Earl SKIDS and USTs in a "Dead Zone"

while WE slept: USTs in tight range w/modest gains on above avg volumes; Fed f'casts almost ALWAYS wrong 'bout path of FF; 'Bond seasonals turn positive in mid-May...'

while WE slept: USTs bid on light (Japan, UK hols); happy Flash Crash-A-versary; $125bb brick wall

weekly observations (05/06/24): NFP -- game changer or ... ? clues from 2s? buybacks in some context and Fed leanin' or leaDin' against wind (L.A.W.)?

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly bull flattening' on light volumes; Watchin’ 2s for clues

while WE slept: USTs better bid (belly) on strong (~110%) volumes; 1y1y triple tops? (HSBC); moar YenTERvention ...

a quick note ... how to trade FOMC; NO hike (issuance 'Tsunami'); 'T-bill and chill is here to stay' and...

while WE slept: USTs modestly lower on strong (~130%)volumes; "Treasury Yields to Stay Elevated on Supply Deluge, Barclays Says"

while WE slept: USTs higher / flatter (post YenTERvention) - see RTRS annotated visual of “Japan’s history of supporting yen”; "Almost Priced Out"

weekly observations (04/29/24): a few updated calls and ... FRBK ?

while WE slept: USTs 'mildly' steeper on light (~70%) volumes; That ‘70s Show

while WE slept: USTs mixed, 'hair' steeper on strong volumes; some (2y, 10y) levels to watch; reasons for econ resilience w/higher rates; could Fed HIKE?

while WE slept: USTs lower (BELLY leading, thanks Aussie CPI, "Crikey!") on light (65%) volumes; #Got5s?

while WE slept: USTs lower (gPMIs good) on light volumes; "Treasury Refunding Preview: Taking a Breather"; this day in '79

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly' lower / steeper on light volumes; "Bond Traders Look to Record Auction for Sign 5% Yield Is Peak"

What the Government Isn't Telling You About Inflation with Danielle DiMartino Booth ...

weekly observations (04/22/24): remain SHORT (10s) and get long (5s) with updated calls (yep, here we go again); MWDL + NNS = favor LONGS in bonds

while WE slept: USTs higher, belly bid (F2Q) on STRONG (~250%) volumes; #HIMCO Q1 2024

while WE slept: USTs higher, led by GILTS on above avg volumes; "Worst of Both Worlds: Are the Risks of Stagflation Elevated?"; "What Went Wrong With US Inflation"; and ... cloud seeding?

while WE slept: USTs higher on strong volumes; '... almost 4x the yield in TBills rather than US Large Cap stks...in the last 100 years ...'

while WE slept: USTs lower on below avg volumes; TINA schmina (10s vs stocks); 10s vs 'flation over longrun

while WE slept: USTs trackin' Gilts, Bunds lower on avg volumes o/n; "...Rates Matter Again for Equities" -MS (who's also updated 2024 econ outlook...)

weekly observations (04/15/24): global wall's calls TRUMPED by the news, "Iran seizes cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz after threats to close waterway"

while WE slept: USTs higher, belly BID (middle east tensions flare) on strong volumes; Williams still sees them as 'bumps' (and so, SSGAs 50bps rate cut comin'?); demark 13 s/t exhaustion (10yy)

while WE slept: USTs mixed/steeper on strong volumes (so, indecision?); June too soon! (updated calls); 10s biggest move since 9/22/22 and more ...

while WE slept: USTs unch on light vol; #Fitch on China; SOFR BLOCK (trade) party? Food + Energy CPI index = X, please solve for X; recession probs falling

while WE slept: USTs higher (tracking bunds, gilts) on strong volumese; #NFIB small biz optimism S(t)INKS

while WE slept: USTs cheaper, belly leading on above avg volumes; "A Market Chart Or A Rorschach Test"

weekly observations (4/08/23): front-end stops triggered and others leaning long; Longest 2s10s Curve Inversion…Ever: 459 days and counting; RedHeads & #Elves

while WE slept: USTs 'hair cheaper' on light volumes; Neel + Israel = latest markets scapegoats;

while WE slept: USTs 'a hair cheaper' on below avg volumes (chart of 2s!); Global Wall's buyin' front-end dip and why not, w/ 'Jay to the Rescue' ...

"No Rate Cuts This Year?" (stocks TRUMPED bonds for 40mo) -Bespoke; A tentative ID of the 2024 dots -DB & a few other things...

while WE slept: USTs cheaper / steeper on strong volumes (5yy ascending triangle); RRP and risk assets; NAPM victory laps

while WE slept: USTs twisting steeper around an UNCH 10yy on extremely light volumes; JPOW reiterated ...

Powell Reiterates Fed Doesn’t Need to Be In Hurry to Cut Rates -BBG ... and another thing(s)

weekly observations (4/01/24): PCE boosts GDP and most of Global Wall not yet to weigh in, stay tuned; Bond (bullish) seasonals

while WE slept: USTs bear flatten (Wall-E) on above avg vols; "There’s Still No Rush" -Wall-E

while WE slept: USTs little changed on light vol; they are sayin QTR end to be BULLISH FI

while WE slept: USTs higher/flatter on avg vol; CBO warns; Apollo reminds and Team Rate CUTS workin' hard to defend...

while WE slept: USTs modestly lower on very light volumes; ... if at first you don't succeed, continue to bet on CUTS 'til Fed cooperates (?)

weekly observations: stay short 10s, higher yield f'casts, be patient before buying DIP and more ... conflicting calls; Bostic SAYS (#FOMC101); Bill Gross in steepener; wazoo

while WE slept: USTs 'drifting higher BUT underperf Gilts/Bunds and on light volumes; "Longest inversion ever..." (and why to care...)

while WE slept: belly BID (SNB cut) on strong volumes; "Federal Reserve marks UP longer-run view on rates"; "Disinflation despite a bumpy road" ... and so, JUNE it is, then; MAYbe, butt...

while WE slept: USTs higher on light vol; DOTS darts <GO>; "No Landing = Stocks Beat Bonds"; ... and, "Time to worry again about rising interest rates? Stay tuned!" (a MONTHLY look at 10yy)

while WE slept: USTs bull steepen on strong volumes (RBA unch and BoJ ends NIRP, maintains JGB purchasing pace); #Got20s?; 5 reasons narrative 'bout to shift (again)

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly steeper' on light volumes; UPgraded econ and downgrading CUT 'casts

how tight is The Fed? maybe NOT as tight as you might have thought (WSJ); ALSO a few other things (upwardly revised yield f'casts, rates of change and 11 charts of the 'stunning recovery' ...

weekly observations (03/18/24): Happy Anniversary(s?); longs stopped, dip buyers still out there, who's buyin' USTs; "Higher Rates = Opposite of Lower Rates" and #MagCover alert

while WE slept: USTs a touch higher / flatter on avg volumes; "Treasuries torpedoed"; what 'they' said in 1995 CUTTING cycle; "Complacency is dangerous"

while WE slept: USTs mixed 'twisting steeper 'round 7yy' on average volume (BUT 2yy saw 200% avg...); UNLIKELY this note is brief ...

while WE slept: USTs a 'hair' higher, flatter on avg volumes; "US 10y yields trading slightly too low"; a longer-term technical framework from a friend #StewTaylor

while WE slept: USTs mixed, curve twisting flatter on light volumes; sellers of 10s; geopolitics matter; and how a, "Dovish Fed could create another spike in inflation"

happy PPT-a-versary

weekly observations (03/11/24): Happy yield lows-A-versary! auction concessions; buyers on dips (if CPI cooperates); Barrons cover...

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly higher' (on light volumes)following EGB post ECB and ahead of NFP; 60/40 'bout to face some "massive" liquidity and issuance 'music'

while WE slept: USTs aggressively UNCH on light volumes; STAGflationary NAPM led to F2Q (so bad was NOT good?); reasons for strong NFP

while WE slept: USTs higher / flatter on strong volumes; "All Aboard the Equities Express"; signs of 'froth building'; happy curve inversion-ersary ...

while WE slept: USTs modestly lower, steeper on light volumes; 20s overbought; stocks UP 16 of 18 weeks (1st time since 1971); mag cover indicator...

weekly observations (03/04/24); BMO stopped OUT short 10s; JPM remains long 5s; MS neutral; Wall-E > Bianco + Slok (for now...)

while WE slept: USTs bid on ~110% avg volumes; bullish momentum; U a "super user"? "The Fed Will Not Cut Rates in 2024" -Apollo

while WE slept: USTs are lower ahead of PCE and on heels of BoJ; steepener 'floppin'; WallE; 2yr BREAKs broke

while WE slept: UST belly bid, outperf Bunds, Gilts on LIGHT volumes; bad = good; 10s vs 4.25; Don Regan; bond traders capitulate ...

while WE slept: USTs higher on strong volumes; Japan CP(h)I(gh); 7yr auction; f'casts raised; TAIL WAGS DOG (HSBC) and more...

while WE slept: USTs mixed / flatter on ~90% avg volumes; a bearish techAmental setup; a coming shutdown; stocks UP 15 of last 17wks (only happened 1x in last 50yrs...)

on this day in 2021 ...

weekly observations (02/26/24): Uncle Warren's got lots of cash; rates forecasts were meant to be revised (thats why I never made 'em...)

while WE slept: USTs modestly lower, belly underperforming on LIGHT volumes; May cut has left the building ... leaving 'bonds in gloom'

while WE slept: USTs little changed (on avg volumes) DESPITE NVDA; do you believe in miracles (hockey fans and N225 investors do); positioning STRETCHED; soft landings

while WE slept: USTs bid / steeper on LIGHT volumes; "...reducing inflation can be the hardest..."; are cuts needed?

while WE slept: USTs mixed / steeper on LIGHT volumes; 10s to 4.5%? "Increasing S&P 500 Target to 5400" (UBS following Goldilocks, last week) and somewhat more...

On this day in 2009; fiscal accident waiting to happen; waitin' for THE overshoot (2yy)

weekly observations (02/20/24): price action led to stops (profits & losses booked), buyers lurking ...

while WE slept: USTs lower on light vol; 'Past 20yrs suggests disinflation, but the past 100 warrants caution'; Cash is KING; Bostic speaks, another 10bps cuts OUT; 4.55% 10s by March?

while WE slept: USTs higher / flatter (2 of G7 in recession) on LIGHT VOLUMES; USTs hit / bounce from 23.6% fibbo and pushin' higher; BNPL (Fed's watchin...)

while WE slept: USTs rebound / steepen on SOLID (165%) volumes; "...SuperCore Soared"; Global Wall reacts, "Sum b!tch!"

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly' higher, curve 'a hair' flatter on LIGHT volumes; CPI precaps first to be followed by victory laps; NYFed on UST market DEPTH

while WE slept: USTs modestly higher in 'illiquid conditions' (holiday); "The coast is clearer..." they say ... get long (5y)duration' ... they say

weekly observations (02/12/24): "So goes January and so goes US 10Y yield?" That and more -- longs, dip buyers and cautious / bears...

while WE slept: USTs lower on light (hol) vol; Global Wall is, 'softening the SOFT LANDING f'cast'; others say 'FCI driven surge in growth means ... yields movin' on up; supply creates demand

while WE slept: USTs lower / steeper on LIGHT VOLUMES; where are the (2yy) EXITS? ... did you hear that? its opportunity knockin' (10s > TBills -HSBC)

while WE slept: USTs lower/steeper on light vol; NYCBs cut to JUNK (Moody's) on CRE concerns (which weren't of concern TO JPOW, Yellen); {GVLQUSD <index> GO}

while WE slept: USTs modestly higher / steeper on slightly above avg volumes; ISM + JPOW + SLOOS = X, solve for X; #FOMC101

while WE slept: USTs lower / flatter on SOLID (~185% avg) volumes; JPOW

weekly observations (02/05/24): group think now suggesting 1st cut in May; one too profits in 5s and one remains long AND THE helmet catch ...

while WE slept: USTs mixed/flatter on avg vols; 'Earl and 5s; bond yields on pace for largest WEEKLY drop since early 2020!

while WE slept: little changed on solid volumes; NO March <cut> for you; #Got20s

while WE slept: USTs MIXED on avg volumes; 4pm is the new 3pm; a trade with 68% hit rate?

while WE slept: USTs bid, flatter on SOLID vol; "...the last two <QRA>announcements prompted major market turns"

while WE slept: USTs bid/flatter on light vol;

weekly observations (01/29/24): reFUNding, NFP & FOMC precaps; '... '24 is probably a good time to buy used car, sell stocks, or both'

while WE slept: USTs mixed/flatter on light vol; GDP recaps and victory laps and couple / few FOMC precaps; Moonlighting; "To AIT or not to AIT"

while WE slept: modest, flattening BID on avg volumes; when doves cry

while WE slept: steepening BID (PPI, China) on avg volume; "The Fed’s Monetary Handover" (read of the day, IMO)

while WE slept: USTs lower / steeper on light volumes; RM added to LONGS; last reFUNding increase; an increased GDP guess ...

while WE slept: bull flattening (following Bunds, Gilts) on light volumes; belly's 'worst weekly sell-off since May' ... #Got5s?

quick update / thoughts (more liking 5s) / a chart or two and couple more things ...

weekly observations (01/22/24): buyers, sellers and profits all booked; HIMCOs Q4 thoughts

while WE slept: USTs flatter on light volumes; MARCH rate cut bets leaving the building; stocks 'still' beat bonds, 'deal with it' ...

while WE slept: USTs higher on light volumes; rates BELOW 3.5% = (moar)bullish CRYPTO

while WE slept: USTs mixed, flatter on SOLID volumes; #Got20s; Wall-E says; Rates Ryder Cup

while WE slept: USTs lower on avg volumes; #Got2s; "Bond Market Still in Charge" (MS); Pivot Party Continues (Apollo); #GotBonds

weekly observations (01/16/24): 2024 the year of the steepener; 20s comeback kid MEANS more supply warranted OR "The Bond Market Rally Is Overlooking a Soaring $2 Trillion Debt Problem"

while WE slept: USTs modestly lower on above avg volumes; a record sized short-covering (FedFunds); "Premature Extrapolation: Inflation Bears Are Popping The Champagne Too Soon"

(USTs 'marginally higher' / flatter on light volumes)while we slept; "Going with post-CPI Move"

(USTs higher on WEAL volumes)while WE slept; historical context (rate cuts and the easing of financial conditions); bond traders targeting HIGHER yields by weeks end...

(USTs lower on decent volumes)while WE slept; #GotGILTS; watching stocks watching bonds watching stocks; BondKing doesn't like bonds; #FOMC101

(USTs modestly cheaper) while WE slept; a word on 'multiple' job holders; MORE expecting LOWER rates; 10s above the (4%) buying zone -BBG;

a quick note, a couple things from Global Wall (JPM says buy dip) and a referral

weekly observations (01/08/24); Logan SAYS; ISM > nfp = X, solve for "X"? CPI to Global Wall Street, "hold my beer"?

(USTs lower on above avg volumes)while WE slept; 'trader makes bet USTs get slammed'; BTFP-Fed Arb continues to offer 'free-money' (ZH) and somewhat more...

(USTs lower/steeper on SOLID VOLUMES)while WE slept; "Attempting to Put the Toothpaste Back in the Tube" -JEFF on FOMC mins; H.O.P.E. IS, in fact, a strategy?

(USTs lower, steeper on LIGHT volumes) while WE slept; “It’s the worst start of a year in more than two decades” … go!

(USTs lower on STRONG VOLUME)while WE slept; Apple downgrade + China Data + Xi + Earl = another funTERtaining year underway ...