Sitemap - 2024 - The BondBeat

while WE slept: USTs in tight range w/modest gains on above avg volumes; Fed f'casts almost ALWAYS wrong 'bout path of FF; 'Bond seasonals turn positive in mid-May...'

while WE slept: USTs bid on light (Japan, UK hols); happy Flash Crash-A-versary; $125bb brick wall

weekly observations (05/06/24): NFP -- game changer or ... ? clues from 2s? buybacks in some context and Fed leanin' or leaDin' against wind (L.A.W.)?

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly bull flattening' on light volumes; Watchin’ 2s for clues

while WE slept: USTs better bid (belly) on strong (~110%) volumes; 1y1y triple tops? (HSBC); moar YenTERvention ...

a quick note ... how to trade FOMC; NO hike (issuance 'Tsunami'); 'T-bill and chill is here to stay' and...

while WE slept: USTs modestly lower on strong (~130%)volumes; "Treasury Yields to Stay Elevated on Supply Deluge, Barclays Says"

while WE slept: USTs higher / flatter (post YenTERvention) - see RTRS annotated visual of “Japan’s history of supporting yen”; "Almost Priced Out"

weekly observations (04/29/24): a few updated calls and ... FRBK ?

while WE slept: USTs 'mildly' steeper on light (~70%) volumes; That ‘70s Show

while WE slept: USTs mixed, 'hair' steeper on strong volumes; some (2y, 10y) levels to watch; reasons for econ resilience w/higher rates; could Fed HIKE?

while WE slept: USTs lower (BELLY leading, thanks Aussie CPI, "Crikey!") on light (65%) volumes; #Got5s?

while WE slept: USTs lower (gPMIs good) on light volumes; "Treasury Refunding Preview: Taking a Breather"; this day in '79

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly' lower / steeper on light volumes; "Bond Traders Look to Record Auction for Sign 5% Yield Is Peak"

What the Government Isn't Telling You About Inflation with Danielle DiMartino Booth ...

weekly observations (04/22/24): remain SHORT (10s) and get long (5s) with updated calls (yep, here we go again); MWDL + NNS = favor LONGS in bonds

while WE slept: USTs higher, belly bid (F2Q) on STRONG (~250%) volumes; #HIMCO Q1 2024

while WE slept: USTs higher, led by GILTS on above avg volumes; "Worst of Both Worlds: Are the Risks of Stagflation Elevated?"; "What Went Wrong With US Inflation"; and ... cloud seeding?

while WE slept: USTs higher on strong volumes; '... almost 4x the yield in TBills rather than US Large Cap stks...in the last 100 years ...'

while WE slept: USTs lower on below avg volumes; TINA schmina (10s vs stocks); 10s vs 'flation over longrun

while WE slept: USTs trackin' Gilts, Bunds lower on avg volumes o/n; "...Rates Matter Again for Equities" -MS (who's also updated 2024 econ outlook...)

weekly observations (04/15/24): global wall's calls TRUMPED by the news, "Iran seizes cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz after threats to close waterway"

while WE slept: USTs higher, belly BID (middle east tensions flare) on strong volumes; Williams still sees them as 'bumps' (and so, SSGAs 50bps rate cut comin'?); demark 13 s/t exhaustion (10yy)

while WE slept: USTs mixed/steeper on strong volumes (so, indecision?); June too soon! (updated calls); 10s biggest move since 9/22/22 and more ...

while WE slept: USTs unch on light vol; #Fitch on China; SOFR BLOCK (trade) party? Food + Energy CPI index = X, please solve for X; recession probs falling

while WE slept: USTs higher (tracking bunds, gilts) on strong volumese; #NFIB small biz optimism S(t)INKS

while WE slept: USTs cheaper, belly leading on above avg volumes; "A Market Chart Or A Rorschach Test"

weekly observations (4/08/23): front-end stops triggered and others leaning long; Longest 2s10s Curve Inversion…Ever: 459 days and counting; RedHeads & #Elves

while WE slept: USTs 'hair cheaper' on light volumes; Neel + Israel = latest markets scapegoats;

while WE slept: USTs 'a hair cheaper' on below avg volumes (chart of 2s!); Global Wall's buyin' front-end dip and why not, w/ 'Jay to the Rescue' ...

"No Rate Cuts This Year?" (stocks TRUMPED bonds for 40mo) -Bespoke; A tentative ID of the 2024 dots -DB & a few other things...

while WE slept: USTs cheaper / steeper on strong volumes (5yy ascending triangle); RRP and risk assets; NAPM victory laps

while WE slept: USTs twisting steeper around an UNCH 10yy on extremely light volumes; JPOW reiterated ...

Powell Reiterates Fed Doesn’t Need to Be In Hurry to Cut Rates -BBG ... and another thing(s)

weekly observations (4/01/24): PCE boosts GDP and most of Global Wall not yet to weigh in, stay tuned; Bond (bullish) seasonals

while WE slept: USTs bear flatten (Wall-E) on above avg vols; "There’s Still No Rush" -Wall-E

while WE slept: USTs little changed on light vol; they are sayin QTR end to be BULLISH FI

while WE slept: USTs higher/flatter on avg vol; CBO warns; Apollo reminds and Team Rate CUTS workin' hard to defend...

while WE slept: USTs modestly lower on very light volumes; ... if at first you don't succeed, continue to bet on CUTS 'til Fed cooperates (?)

weekly observations: stay short 10s, higher yield f'casts, be patient before buying DIP and more ... conflicting calls; Bostic SAYS (#FOMC101); Bill Gross in steepener; wazoo

while WE slept: USTs 'drifting higher BUT underperf Gilts/Bunds and on light volumes; "Longest inversion ever..." (and why to care...)

while WE slept: belly BID (SNB cut) on strong volumes; "Federal Reserve marks UP longer-run view on rates"; "Disinflation despite a bumpy road" ... and so, JUNE it is, then; MAYbe, butt...

while WE slept: USTs higher on light vol; DOTS darts <GO>; "No Landing = Stocks Beat Bonds"; ... and, "Time to worry again about rising interest rates? Stay tuned!" (a MONTHLY look at 10yy)

while WE slept: USTs bull steepen on strong volumes (RBA unch and BoJ ends NIRP, maintains JGB purchasing pace); #Got20s?; 5 reasons narrative 'bout to shift (again)

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly steeper' on light volumes; UPgraded econ and downgrading CUT 'casts

how tight is The Fed? maybe NOT as tight as you might have thought (WSJ); ALSO a few other things (upwardly revised yield f'casts, rates of change and 11 charts of the 'stunning recovery' ...

weekly observations (03/18/24): Happy Anniversary(s?); longs stopped, dip buyers still out there, who's buyin' USTs; "Higher Rates = Opposite of Lower Rates" and #MagCover alert

while WE slept: USTs a touch higher / flatter on avg volumes; "Treasuries torpedoed"; what 'they' said in 1995 CUTTING cycle; "Complacency is dangerous"

while WE slept: USTs mixed 'twisting steeper 'round 7yy' on average volume (BUT 2yy saw 200% avg...); UNLIKELY this note is brief ...

while WE slept: USTs a 'hair' higher, flatter on avg volumes; "US 10y yields trading slightly too low"; a longer-term technical framework from a friend #StewTaylor

while WE slept: USTs mixed, curve twisting flatter on light volumes; sellers of 10s; geopolitics matter; and how a, "Dovish Fed could create another spike in inflation"

happy PPT-a-versary

weekly observations (03/11/24): Happy yield lows-A-versary! auction concessions; buyers on dips (if CPI cooperates); Barrons cover...

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly higher' (on light volumes)following EGB post ECB and ahead of NFP; 60/40 'bout to face some "massive" liquidity and issuance 'music'

while WE slept: USTs aggressively UNCH on light volumes; STAGflationary NAPM led to F2Q (so bad was NOT good?); reasons for strong NFP

while WE slept: USTs higher / flatter on strong volumes; "All Aboard the Equities Express"; signs of 'froth building'; happy curve inversion-ersary ...

while WE slept: USTs modestly lower, steeper on light volumes; 20s overbought; stocks UP 16 of 18 weeks (1st time since 1971); mag cover indicator...

weekly observations (03/04/24); BMO stopped OUT short 10s; JPM remains long 5s; MS neutral; Wall-E > Bianco + Slok (for now...)

while WE slept: USTs bid on ~110% avg volumes; bullish momentum; U a "super user"? "The Fed Will Not Cut Rates in 2024" -Apollo

while WE slept: USTs are lower ahead of PCE and on heels of BoJ; steepener 'floppin'; WallE; 2yr BREAKs broke

while WE slept: UST belly bid, outperf Bunds, Gilts on LIGHT volumes; bad = good; 10s vs 4.25; Don Regan; bond traders capitulate ...

while WE slept: USTs higher on strong volumes; Japan CP(h)I(gh); 7yr auction; f'casts raised; TAIL WAGS DOG (HSBC) and more...

while WE slept: USTs mixed / flatter on ~90% avg volumes; a bearish techAmental setup; a coming shutdown; stocks UP 15 of last 17wks (only happened 1x in last 50yrs...)

on this day in 2021 ...

weekly observations (02/26/24): Uncle Warren's got lots of cash; rates forecasts were meant to be revised (thats why I never made 'em...)

while WE slept: USTs modestly lower, belly underperforming on LIGHT volumes; May cut has left the building ... leaving 'bonds in gloom'

while WE slept: USTs little changed (on avg volumes) DESPITE NVDA; do you believe in miracles (hockey fans and N225 investors do); positioning STRETCHED; soft landings

while WE slept: USTs bid / steeper on LIGHT volumes; "...reducing inflation can be the hardest..."; are cuts needed?

while WE slept: USTs mixed / steeper on LIGHT volumes; 10s to 4.5%? "Increasing S&P 500 Target to 5400" (UBS following Goldilocks, last week) and somewhat more...

On this day in 2009; fiscal accident waiting to happen; waitin' for THE overshoot (2yy)

weekly observations (02/20/24): price action led to stops (profits & losses booked), buyers lurking ...

while WE slept: USTs lower on light vol; 'Past 20yrs suggests disinflation, but the past 100 warrants caution'; Cash is KING; Bostic speaks, another 10bps cuts OUT; 4.55% 10s by March?

while WE slept: USTs higher / flatter (2 of G7 in recession) on LIGHT VOLUMES; USTs hit / bounce from 23.6% fibbo and pushin' higher; BNPL (Fed's watchin...)

while WE slept: USTs rebound / steepen on SOLID (165%) volumes; "...SuperCore Soared"; Global Wall reacts, "Sum b!tch!"

while WE slept: USTs 'modestly' higher, curve 'a hair' flatter on LIGHT volumes; CPI precaps first to be followed by victory laps; NYFed on UST market DEPTH

while WE slept: USTs modestly higher in 'illiquid conditions' (holiday); "The coast is clearer..." they say ... get long (5y)duration' ... they say

weekly observations (02/12/24): "So goes January and so goes US 10Y yield?" That and more -- longs, dip buyers and cautious / bears...

while WE slept: USTs lower on light (hol) vol; Global Wall is, 'softening the SOFT LANDING f'cast'; others say 'FCI driven surge in growth means ... yields movin' on up; supply creates demand

while WE slept: USTs lower / steeper on LIGHT VOLUMES; where are the (2yy) EXITS? ... did you hear that? its opportunity knockin' (10s > TBills -HSBC)

while WE slept: USTs lower/steeper on light vol; NYCBs cut to JUNK (Moody's) on CRE concerns (which weren't of concern TO JPOW, Yellen); {GVLQUSD <index> GO}

while WE slept: USTs modestly higher / steeper on slightly above avg volumes; ISM + JPOW + SLOOS = X, solve for X; #FOMC101

while WE slept: USTs lower / flatter on SOLID (~185% avg) volumes; JPOW

weekly observations (02/05/24): group think now suggesting 1st cut in May; one too profits in 5s and one remains long AND THE helmet catch ...

while WE slept: USTs mixed/flatter on avg vols; 'Earl and 5s; bond yields on pace for largest WEEKLY drop since early 2020!

while WE slept: little changed on solid volumes; NO March <cut> for you; #Got20s

while WE slept: USTs MIXED on avg volumes; 4pm is the new 3pm; a trade with 68% hit rate?

while WE slept: USTs bid, flatter on SOLID vol; "...the last two <QRA>announcements prompted major market turns"

while WE slept: USTs bid/flatter on light vol;

weekly observations (01/29/24): reFUNding, NFP & FOMC precaps; '... '24 is probably a good time to buy used car, sell stocks, or both'

while WE slept: USTs mixed/flatter on light vol; GDP recaps and victory laps and couple / few FOMC precaps; Moonlighting; "To AIT or not to AIT"

while WE slept: modest, flattening BID on avg volumes; when doves cry

while WE slept: steepening BID (PPI, China) on avg volume; "The Fed’s Monetary Handover" (read of the day, IMO)

while WE slept: USTs lower / steeper on light volumes; RM added to LONGS; last reFUNding increase; an increased GDP guess ...

while WE slept: bull flattening (following Bunds, Gilts) on light volumes; belly's 'worst weekly sell-off since May' ... #Got5s?

quick update / thoughts (more liking 5s) / a chart or two and couple more things ...

weekly observations (01/22/24): buyers, sellers and profits all booked; HIMCOs Q4 thoughts

while WE slept: USTs flatter on light volumes; MARCH rate cut bets leaving the building; stocks 'still' beat bonds, 'deal with it' ...

while WE slept: USTs higher on light volumes; rates BELOW 3.5% = (moar)bullish CRYPTO

while WE slept: USTs mixed, flatter on SOLID volumes; #Got20s; Wall-E says; Rates Ryder Cup

while WE slept: USTs lower on avg volumes; #Got2s; "Bond Market Still in Charge" (MS); Pivot Party Continues (Apollo); #GotBonds

weekly observations (01/16/24): 2024 the year of the steepener; 20s comeback kid MEANS more supply warranted OR "The Bond Market Rally Is Overlooking a Soaring $2 Trillion Debt Problem"

while WE slept: USTs modestly lower on above avg volumes; a record sized short-covering (FedFunds); "Premature Extrapolation: Inflation Bears Are Popping The Champagne Too Soon"

(USTs 'marginally higher' / flatter on light volumes)while we slept; "Going with post-CPI Move"

(USTs higher on WEAL volumes)while WE slept; historical context (rate cuts and the easing of financial conditions); bond traders targeting HIGHER yields by weeks end...

(USTs lower on decent volumes)while WE slept; #GotGILTS; watching stocks watching bonds watching stocks; BondKing doesn't like bonds; #FOMC101

(USTs modestly cheaper) while WE slept; a word on 'multiple' job holders; MORE expecting LOWER rates; 10s above the (4%) buying zone -BBG;

a quick note, a couple things from Global Wall (JPM says buy dip) and a referral

weekly observations (01/08/24); Logan SAYS; ISM > nfp = X, solve for "X"? CPI to Global Wall Street, "hold my beer"?

(USTs lower on above avg volumes)while WE slept; 'trader makes bet USTs get slammed'; BTFP-Fed Arb continues to offer 'free-money' (ZH) and somewhat more...

(USTs lower/steeper on SOLID VOLUMES)while WE slept; "Attempting to Put the Toothpaste Back in the Tube" -JEFF on FOMC mins; H.O.P.E. IS, in fact, a strategy?

(USTs lower, steeper on LIGHT volumes) while WE slept; “It’s the worst start of a year in more than two decades” … go!

(USTs lower on STRONG VOLUME)while WE slept; Apple downgrade + China Data + Xi + Earl = another funTERtaining year underway ...