The BondBeat
US RATES within a global MACRO focus
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(USTs modestly higher, 5s30s steeper on above avg (~160%) volumes)while WE slept; a large BET; dovish hikes? (60/40s) NOT…Good morning … ahead of NFP there’s very little insights I have to offer … and so, I’m not going to try, certainly not as hard as ZH notes a specific trader appears to be trying — see full ZH hit just below where THIS GUY is trying, Trader Makes Huge $80 Million Bet
(USTs touch higher, belly leading on ~140% of the average volumes) while WE slept;Good morning … BoE raises rates and says more hikes may be needed BUT the good news is they now see, … a much shallower projected decline in output than in the November Report forecast… Ok GREAT! Back to THIS side of the pond where markets still digesting the FOMC and…
sellside observations from the week that was AND for the one just ahead (Feb 6) as "The Fed Fights the Fed" and lets play 'debt ceiling chicken' (WSJ)Good afternoon. I hope this short note finds you well and staying warm. I ALSO hope that it finds you having sold 10yy against 200dMA (3.367%) … If so, yer brilliant AND should likely play Powerball before this evenings drawing? Look, the fact of the matter IS that with refunding…
(USTs 'modestly richer/flatter' on 'subpar' volumes) while WE sleptGood morning … A new day and a new month begins and with that, a quick look at 5yy MONTHLY I spy with my little eyes a peak in October as well as a turn in momentum (stochastics, bottom panel) and while todays FOMC meeting and presser could shake up the snowGLOBal macro a bit…
(belly leading selloff on 'statistically weak' volumes) while WE slept; bad news IS good; DFS chargeoffs; COLAs good (but not good 'nuff); yields 'bout to DROP (RoC...)Good morning … HIMCOs quarterly updated was posted and I’ve mentioned it HERE, in the case you’ve not seen or heard. I’d ALSO note with BoJ and YCC…
(touch steeper, strong volumes) while WE slept; soft landing narrative dead? foreign private buyers BOUGHT and China sold (again); debt ceiling drama GUIDE (WFC); HIMCO bullish; some 30yy levels ...Good morning … Foreign PRIVATE buyers were buyin … ZH: China Cut Treasury Holdings Again In November As World Piled Into US Stocks ALL the details from…
(USTs higher, flatter on nearly DOUBLE avg volumes -- thanks BoJ!) while WE slept; and long bonds 'threatening an irregular topping structure BELOW 3.405/3.355%'Good morning … Three things since last we left which are responsible for yesterday - and last night … I’ll begin with an uncharacteristically short-term…
(USTs lower, steeper on about avg volumes) while WE slept; CHINA: blowout Q4 data; BoJ next source of global macro risks; "Bonds Over Stocks: The New 60-40 Portfolio" -WSJGood morning … Not sure WHY this (simple, sans BBG) view of 30yy slows me down, Momentum (stochastics — bottom panel — crossing from overBOUGHT…
sellside observations from the week that was AND which will be (Jan 16): "Highest Bond Inflows In 18 Months"; updated (LOWERED) rate calls; sell 10s (outright) but then, buy vs...Good afternoon and what a week just passed … ZH: Stocks, Bonds, Gold, & Crypto Soar As Markets Call Fed's Bluff The world and his pet rabbit appear to…