The BondBeat

weekly observations (07.07.25): NFP recaps / victory laps; Global Wall remains bullish, Goldilocks lowers yld f'cast (marks to mkt)

while WE slept: USTs firm; NFP precaps followed by victory laps; 12m MA 2yy on NFP days:'outsized moves' on print ...

while WE slept: "fixed in the red"; 2s testing key support (CitiFX); "buyer strike on US assets continues" (DB); NAZ (not a)bubble indicator (DataTrek); USTs longs build & Hindsight Cap (BBG)

while WE slept: Rates are BID, vote-A-rama continues; Monthly, quarterly performance; NFP precap & Swiss out with updated (and lowered) 10yr rate guess

while WE slept: belly BID, light (60%) volumes into month-end; "Tariff Singularity", remain BULLISH rates and stocks (MS) and ... basking

weekly observations (06.30.25): flatteners and steepeners (BAML, BMO), DOTS identified (DB), stay long 5s, foreigners NOT 'fleeing' (MS); BIS says ...

while WE slept: USTs under modest pressure; "...spikes in geopolitical risk have had no observable effect on 6m SPX returns over the last few decades" (Barclays)

while WE slept: USTs bid (WSJ) ; #Got7s?; #SLRs a changin'; lookin' for front-end dipORtunity (JPM); #GotNYCREITs?

while WE slept: USTs flat ahead of HH2.0; brace for $1tril UST supply; "little bear market" (10s, BG); "Pricing of cuts under the next Fed chair has shifted materially" (DB); #TariffInflation ??

while WE slept: USTs bid ; who's buyin (oil and separately, USTs -DB) ... and a better measure (of GPD) = PDFP; #Got2s?

while WE slept: USTs aggressively UNCH; mkts overconfident in easing while markets/econ have been resilient (DB); geopol events short-lived, Fed's NLP more dovish and thinking 7 CUTS in '26 (MS) ...

weekly observations (06.23.25): bonds BID, Waller SAYS, and Global Wall's buyin' 5s