The BondBeat

while WE slept: Bonds are BID (Japanese election losses not as bad as feared AND Bessent talks DJT down off the ledge); #Got5s?; fade 5s30s steepening (SocGEN); buy (equity)dips (MS); BREAKS breakin'

weekly observations (07.21.25): 5y5y; stablecoin BID for bonds; "We capitulate on last month’s constructive view on UST", S&P golden cross = HIGHER 10yy (BAML); stopped OUT 5s, re buy (MS)

while WE slept: USTs bid (Wall-E) bunds underperforming; Wall-E says; BREAKS breakin'; ReSale Tales and YCC again? why not -Tchir

while WE slept: USTs are lower by a handful of ticks (TSMC); #Got30s? (rent2own?); Core PCE to firm (Barclays, BMO); eco outlook leans to downside (MS)

while WE slept: USTs aggressively UNCH; CPI recaps; #Got2s in-range (BMO) OR rates 'clean break' (CitiFX); "How markets are still underestimating inflation risk" (how or WHY? DB answers)

while WE slept: USTs bull flatten; NO cuts in 25 (BNP), "And so it begins?" (UBS on tarif’lation), #Got2s?

while WE slept: "USTs retain a modest bear-steepening bias..."; 5s vs 4.00% (aka 'non shall pass'); 60/40 'A 150-Year Markets Stress Test'

weekly observations (07.14.25): "What if?" (DB, ING); "...You will not see me getting in the lifeboat.” -JPOW

while WE slept: USTs cheaper/steeper; '“Bond fund” received more US search than “tech stock”' (DataTREK); bond vol (MOVE) 3y low! Oh Canada! Stablecoin = UST demand; XL slurpee demand (JPOW)

while WE slept: USTs 'creeping' o/n bid ran into wall; S&P upgrade w/note on STOCKS > bonds, and 5000yrs of rates (BAML); daily 'evening stars' formed (CitiFX)

while WE slept: USTs marginally bid, calm; "Do near record low US dividends matter?" (yes -DB); global fiscal follies; 'Shut up, Dan' ...

while WE slept: USTs cheaper (tariffs); 10s approx 225yr avg since (~4.50% since 1800 -DB); mkts disconnected (Apollo)