The BondBeat

while WE slept: USTs steady, risk ON (tariffs story, GAZA, Oil); NFIB spikes; an ode to Ben ...

while WE slept: USTs under pressure (NFP, Oil, China exports); ERP says, "bonds are now more attractive"

weekly observations (01.13.25): "...We raise our interest rate forecast on the back of our revised Fed call..." -everyone (incl JPM); "6th year of 3rd Great Bond Bear Market of past 240 years" -BAML

while WE slept: 'USTs are softer, but...'; payroll data looms, the markets fate it assumes ...

while WE slept: quiet (holiday)mkts; 10s vs 'KEY' level (4.74, 2024 'cheaps'); "Lots of Equity Risk. Not Much Premium" (stocks richest in 22y) & TLT outflows 'tremendous' (but NOT bearish)

while WE slept: USTs cheapening into supply; BBG: "Bond Market Targets 5% US 10-Year Yield", last time yields surged, stocks SANK and "... The most important issue may be the secular trend ..."

while WE slept: USTs leaking higher but 'contained'; "None shall pass..." (10s vs 4.64%?); bankruptcies on rise; #FOMC101 (2025 edition)

while WE slept: USTs MIXED; in uncertain times, avoid stocks, stay in bonds -WSJ; WaPO story on TARIFF MAN; "Why 2025 can be another great year" -DB

weekly observations (01.06.25): NFP precaps, #2025 outlook rehash (BMO), "Treasuries Overvalued" (Ironsides) and...

while WE slept: bonds 'relatively contained'; beware BAMLs "SSI"; "Solid, but slowing" -MS precap of NFP

while WE slept: USTs firm (weak China PMI); 1st 4 trading days=contrarian signal; '25 the, "Year Of The Yield Curve" -Winghart; stocks usually goes up (but usually≠always)

2024: Fed CUTS 100bps, 10s rip 100bps; SURPRISE(s)! UST DEMAND revival (MS); 10s '4.50% +/- 25bps in 2025' -Yardeni and more ...