Sitemap - 2023 - The BondBeat

(USTs bid on '45-50% volumes after non-responsive session in Asia')while WE slept; "Market Timers Hall of Fame" is an empty room

(USTs lower 'uwinding yest afternoon's risk off SPASM bid' on extremely LIGHT volumes)while WE slept; ugly 20yr, risk-off spasm, and bonds move BEYOND 2024 targets ...

(USTs bid, steeper on light volumes)while WE slept; basis traders; yields - from historical (1790) average TO, "Are Bond Yields Facing Historic Overbought Correction?"; foreign private BUYERS USTs

(USTs higher/flatter on decent volumes)while WE slept; "… Long history of US 10-year Treasury yields - UST yields: higher, but near average"

(USTs mixed/higher/steeper on nearly avg volumes)while WE slept; JPOWs 'Pivot Is a Pretty Big Gamble' (Dudley); load up on s/t debt

weekly observations (12/18); year aheads being FORCED to revise

(USTs MIXED, mixed data o/n)while WE slept (and while I am still catching up with moves and responses TO data, central planners letters TO Santa, etc...)

(USTs bid/flatter -- long JGB sqeeze)while WE slept; 'data response index' SAYS; 'Higher for longer; the FED is not cutting rates before July, and certainly not five times in 2024'

(USTs higher / bullishly FLATTENING on 'decent' volumes)while WE slept; Hasbro needs Tommy 'Cutlets' agent for some PR right away ...

(USTs lower ahead of supply BUT relatively LIGHT volumes)while WE Slept; Chinese deflation over weekend, higher rates here to stay (Barrons) and S&P 6000 in 2025 ... plenty inbetween

weekly observations (12/11); lets get NEUTRAL

(USTs modestly cheaper on light volumes)while WE Slept; prices at pump, NFP, CPI and FOMC pre caps & victory laps; the bull steepening (again) ... and more

(USTs lower on 'about average' volumes)while WE slept; "Trading Tomorrow" (always) and "The Market's Next Big Pain Trade" (in bonds...ahead of NFP...read)

(USTs lower / flatter on 'pretty weak' volumes)while WE slept; markets JOLT'd; last couple PIVOTS coincided with double-dig monthly DECLINES for S&P

(USTs 'modestly higher' on light volume)while WE slept; Schnabel ≠ Keynes (but...); 10s between 4.10 and 4.20 for 'most of time' ...

(USTs are 'lower' on light volumes)while WE slept; (an equity guy asks) "How Low Can Rates Go?"

weekend observations (12/04); who bought 3,000 3mo March 2025 SOFR contracts?; bull steepener meaning? & a(nother)JPOW pivot coming?

while WE slept; JPOW @ 11a 'unlikely to sound as dovish as Waller'; financial conditions largest EASING in last 40yrs; "The chart we love to hate"; GDI (from Wed)

while WE slept; "Global bonds surge toward best month since 2008 financial crisis" and yet 'another hike unprecedented but NOT impossible'

(NY Open - Easy does it)while WE slept; fiscal to be more of a drag in 2024; Earl leading rates...

while WE slept; YCC in the USA? S&P 5100? lots of questions on a Monday morning ahead of Treasury double-header

weekly observations (11/27) -- a few more 2024 outlooks and reprise of some of the 'longest pictures'

(USTs lower / steeper on below avg volumes)while WE slept; NRF says 182mil out shopping (most. EVER...)

(USTs modestly higher / flatter on light volumes)while WE slept ...

(USTs modestly higher, flatter on 'decent' volumes)while WE slept; USTs "...Erase 2023 Losses as Fed Cut Bets Blossom"

(USTs modestly LOWER on below avg volume) while WE slept; "Federal Reserve Officials Talk Too Much" (El-Erian)

weekly observations (11/20); bond mkt erases 2023 loss (but AGG worst drawdown in 40yrs)

(USTs higher after weak UK ReSale TALES and moving on above average volumes)while WE slept; retail selling USTs, buying MUNIS and foreigners buyin' TBILLS

(USTs higher / flatter on avg volumes)while WE slept; "43 Years, ONE Soft Landing"; 7 dovish pivots & when 5yy fall 50bps from HIGHS, what next?

(USTs lower, underperforming globally on above avg volumes)while WE slept; CPI recaps and vicotry laps; based on analysis of the past, patterns suggest 2yy goin' down...

(USTs higher / flatter on light volume)while WE slept; "Is 3 the new 2?" (DB); "Bond vigilantes will be back" (Dudley); 'BIG conviction in LOWER yields in 24' (BAML)

(USTs touch higher, following UK, Germany and doing so on light volumes)while WE slept; floodgate of 2024 dart throwing exercise continues...Happy Felix Unger Day!

weekly observations (11/13); Moodys sets the mood, KJP reacts, global markets await Sunday evening's open; Veteran's Day

(USTs modestly cheaper / steeper on above avg volumes)while WE slept; bonds TAIL, JPOW bails and SPOOS streak ('Haley's Comet') fails

(USTs lower, bear steepening on above avg volumes)while WE slept... ; "More disinflation is in store over the next year"; AND more 2024 darts thrown (Wells, Goldilocks)

(USTs mixed, flatter on what appears to be average volumes)while WE slept; "...US 2y is the cleanest trade..." (UBS); '...bond rally is just gettin' started' (HIMCO) AND more...

(USTs 'modestly higher after a "dovish hike" by the RBA...' and all on above avg volumes)while WE slept; Ka$hkari SAYS; SLOOS victory laps

(USTs modestly lower / flatter on average volumes)while WE slept; "Hedge Funds Catapulted Treasury Shorts to Record at Wrong Time"

FDIC Press Release; "...is the glass half full or half empty? The answer is clearly “yes." ..."; "Rate Cut Bets Are Surging"

weekly observations (11/06); NFP recaps and victory laps (multiple job holders); positions and narratives changing (again) as profits booked and new HOPES / trades put on

(USTs mixed, BELLY outperforms on average volumes)while WE slept; "Payrolls could pose a serious dilemma"

(USTs extend modist bid, curve flatter on average volumes)while WE slept; MATH of the moment: ADP + TBAC + ISM + FOMC = X; lower dur supply+higher labor supply=X (solve for "X"s); "Give Car Back"

(USTs modestly higher w/belly leading and on strong volumes)while WE Slept; GVLQUSD (liquidity via Citi); Druckenmiller Says He Has ‘Massive’ Bullish Bets on 2-Year Notes (BBG)

(USTs bull flattening on heels of BoJ, China PMI disappoints; STRONG volumes)while WE slept; Prof. Siegel: There’s No Question the Economy is Strong (BUT... money supply...)

(belly leading USTs lower on LIGHT volumes as risk is ON)while WE slept; "The Big Bond Market Event Wednesday Is at Treasury, Not the Fed"

happy (? original ?) crash-A-versary; "...Stop Crying About Bonds and Buy Them..."; #Got20s?

weekly observations (10/30); "How high?"; w/10yy close to 5%, stocks 'more unappealing' than has been over past 20yrs ...

(USTs touch lower, steeper with volumes 'again notably subdued at ~60% of average')while WE slept; tighter FCI=3 hikes (DB)

(USTs little changed on avg volumes) while WE slept; "Inflation Reaccelerating in Recent Months" as we head back TO the future...

(USTs 'under pressure' o/n, steeper on 'modest' volumes)while WE slept; "Bond Yields Rise at Fastest Pace Since Early 1980s" (BBG ... somethings gonna break)

(USTs MIXED on strong volumes)while WE slept; MATH: Bill + Bill = Bond BID? ; What FedFunds AREN'T tellin' us (Dudley); "Bill and Bill's Big Adventure in Treasuries Land"

(USTs bear steepened, 10s hit 5% 1st time 16yrs on ~85% avg volumes)while WE slept; US10s > Greece (?)

weekly observations (10/23): longs stopped, engage in shorts; "Longer-dated interest rates USUALLY touch the Fed Funds Rate"; # states w/trend rise in URATE = slowdown all hoping for (?); REPO MAN ...

(belly leads USTs higher - weekend F2Q bid on ~95% 30d avg volumes) while WE slept; "Impending Recession" (HIMCO Q3)

(USTs steeper / cheaper on above avg volumes) while WE slept; "The Fed Still Has a Lot of Quantitative TIGHTENING to Do" (-Dudley, moar supply) and / or "Rates Can Never Rise" (Gundlach 10/3) AND ....

(USTs bull steepening) while WE slept; '10yy UNDEFEATED since 1974'

(USTs bear STEEPENING o/n on long-end supply - Japan, Australia, Neth, Spain and UK)while WE slept; "If Inflation Is 3.7% And Oil Is Rising, Treasuries Can't Rally"

(USTs lower on 'super-light volumes') while WE slept; "Time Is Running Out for the 'Year of the Bond' as Losses Mount" (bbg reference TO Lacy)

Happy flash crash-A-versary!

weekly observations (10/16); "Rates Not Going Back to Zero"

(USTs rallied o/n, belly leads on light volumes) while WE slept; worst day since March 2020...

(USTs are MIXED, 'off earlier lows' and on VERY LIGHT VOLUMES) while WE slept; CPI MISS-O-tunities

(USTs higher, curve 'sharply bull-flattening' on above avg volumes) while WE slept; "Frantic Dis-inversion In Treasury Curve May Have Further To Run" (framed as bearish duration)

(USTs 'SHARPLY HIGHER' on strong volume) while WE slept; does Fedspeak cut both ways?tides turnin'; bonds have best Columbus Day; 'The End of Pax Volckeriana' (trend in bonds no longer yer friend)

while we slept...

happy globally coordinated rate cuts anniversary (and couple other items...)

weekly observations (10/9) - nfp recap and victory lap edition ...

(USTs 'modestly' cheaper on light volumes) while WE slept; 'Curve-o-meter' says...; 10s TO 5.45% (allstars chart)

(USTs higher, steeper, strong vol)while WE slept; "Neither a Lender Nor a Stockholder Be" -BG; "10-Year Yield Spike Doesn't Mean Stock Market Will Plummet"(StockCharts.com...?); UST supply +23% in '24

(USTs a touch lower on SOLID VOLUMES); while WE slept; "Could 10-year Treasury rates hit 13%?" and 'Why Is a Soft Landing Unlikely?'

(USTs 'modestly lower' and steeper on average volumes) while WE slept; "Is China the Source of Higher US Long Rates?" -Apollo

(USTs lower on avg volumes)while WE slept; OJ; "A Rise in Bond Yields Typically Ends With A Financial Accident" -BCA; bond mkt's 38mo drawdown

weekly observations (October 2); bond bulls givin' UP; hikes DONE (Williams); "Beyond The Landing" -GMO

(USTs higher, belly leading on above avg volume) while WE slept; "Here Is What Stops, And What Doesn't, When The Government Shuts Down This Weekend" (ZH, BBG)

(USTs are lower, STEEPER on ~120% avg vol) while WE slept; Ka$kari, (a)durable goods; "For the first time this year, Bloomberg's 60/40 is TRENDING DOWN"; S&P493 now equal weight;

(USTs higher, flatter on above avg volumes) while WE slept; rate CUTS in March (? Apollo ?) vs "Global liquidity: The honeymoon looks to be over" (BNP) ...

(USTs 'modestly higher' on above avg volumes) while WE slept; UAW strike = higher 'flation; 10yy simply back to 'avg'; what to make of (CPB)World Trade (fade); BUY Yom Kippur?

Random rainy day thoughts (DiMartino + Hunt = must see TV and knowledge)

weekly observations (9/25th); "... We raise our year-end 2023 UST 10Y yield forecast from 3.0% to 3.5% to reflect the Fed’s actions ..." and more

(USTs 'modestly' higher, belly BEST on SOLID volumes)while WE slept; households BUYIN', CEOs worried, rates hitting multi year HIGHS (here, there, everywhere...)

(USTs MIXED, 'sharply steeper' on ~225% avg volumes)while WE slept; researching 'carefully'

before WE sleep; USTs fresh 16 yr high; Canada CPI beats; 2yy levels to watch as others thinking 'bout 10s TO 2.50% (AB)

(USTs unch, steeper on about avg volumes) while WE slept; 50c on the dollar; 10yy since 1850 (in context of recessions)

(USTs are lower/flatter on extremely light volumes)while WE slept; Broadway show traffic extremely 'light'; Nasdaq vs. Treasuries (Crescat)

weekly observations (9/18)

(USTs are lower on nearly avg volumes) while WE slept; China data BEATS, UAW strikes (admin silent, so far) and on this day in '08 Lehman filed...

(USTs mixed on light volumes)while WE slept; PBoC CUTS; REAL incomes fell; 'sticky prices' remained sticky (Atl FED); 2yy vs 55dMA and URATE to rise in 2024, so says McClellan (as he interprets data)

(USTs lower, steeper on avg volumes) while WE slept; more (BAML) 'evidence' on basis trade; a revised ('higher for longer' -CA) rates forecast; an update from JPM, 'trimming duration'

(USTs 'a hair higher' on above avg vols)while WE slept; CPI precaps, victory laps

#NeverForget ... (USTs lower, steeper on light volumes)while WE slept; "For the first time in 20 years, the consensus is forecasting lower long rates"

weekly observations (September 11th); BONDS > stocks; stayin' LONG 'poorly timed' 10s as another shop remains long 5s and...huntin' yield

(USTs lean green, 'hair steeper' on LIGHT VOLUMES)while WE slept; "BNPL"; energy led 'flation...

(USTs modestly higher, steeper on avg volumes)while WE slept

(USTs slightly BID on strong volumes)while WE slept; UST basis trades to become an(other) issue? bear steepening episodes, historically

(USTs are lower on STRONG volumes)while WE slept; China news was MIXED while Goldilocks predicts, well, a Goldilocks economic outcome while others are less 'optimistic'

weekly observations (week of Sept 5th); NFP recaps and victory laps; "Inflation Is Still a Problem" -Slok; "Not since 1787” (BAML)

(USTs mixed, pivoting steeper on light volumes ahead of NFP)while WE slept; SUPER Core (not so super)

(USTs modestly higher on light volumes)while WE slept; 10s a 'screaming buy'; portfolio balance channel (circa 2012, Bernanke)

(USTs modestly lower on STRONG volumes) while WE slept; while BAD = GOOD (meet the new narrative, same as the old one), a NFP precap (Falling hours = weaker payrolls) and a chart of GDI caught my eyes

(USTs are MIXED on ~90% avg volumes)while WE slept; China CUTS (mortgage rates); default rates ticking higher; and important 'forecast update' (bullish goal posts moved ...)

(USTs are MIXED on holiday volumes)while WE slept; AI is deflationary AND THEN...;

weekly observations (8/28); Jackson Hole speech recaps, NFP precaps, Nasdaq vs Treasuries (somethin' gonna give?) and more

(USTs modestly lower on extremely LIGHT VOLUMES)while WE slept; more debt = higher / LOWER yields (choose one); M2 falling = 'stocks overvalued' (agree/disagree? please choose one

(USTs higher, belly leading - thanks EZ data - on what appears to be light volumes)while WE slept; #got20s? Convexity Maven - "The Big 'O'"

(USTs slightly bid, belly leading as US follows UK all on above avg UST volumes)while WE slept ... 5000yrs of low rates, what next? DUDs, 'Goodbye to the bond bull'; Fed model says...

(USTs are lower / STEEPER on light vols)while WE slept; USA still goin' strong; TIPS vs GOLD as 'flation hedge; longs doublin' down and some initiating new positions...

weekly observations (8/21)

(USTs 'sharply steeper after the 20y JGB auction saw a historic tail (+7bps)')while WE slept; HARD landing becomes NO landing; FOMC minutes SAY ... whatever you wanna see?

(USTs bull steepened overnight on strong volumes)while WE slept; "Asset managers are still bullish on duration, but less so than 3 months ago" and ... ReSale TALES

(USTs bear steepening on well above-avg volumes); while WE slept -- China data WEAK and PBoC CUTS; vigilantes runnin' into resistance;

(USTs aggressively UNCH on about avg volumes)while WE slept; "Rate Cuts"

weekly observations (8/14); dealer capacity, r*, stay long 5s, long TIPS, lookin' to get into flatteners and some other STUFF...

(USTs 'sleepwalking into US open' on well below avg volumes)while WE slept; bad = good? CPI recaps / victory laps; bond supply / demand balance

(USTs little changed on extremely LIGHT volumes) while WE slept; some 'charts for the beach', CPI precaps and a rate cycle 'unlike any other' = different this time?

(USTs mixed, flatter on below avg volumes) while WE slept; CHINA 'flation; duration 'historically oversold' (Bespoke) vs 'new duration supply cycle' (DB); close 10yy long

(USTs bull flattening on ~190% of 30d avg volumes)while WE slept (China data); mtg rates + gas prices = PAIN; "Pain Trade Is For A Steeper Yield Curve"; "Bond v Stock Barometer"

(USTs cheaper, belly leads on way down, volumes LIGHT)while WE slept; Is Recession Coming? (Wells framework says YES, see 10y1y curve...)

weekly observations (8/7/23) -- NFP recap and victory lap edition ...

(USTs are MIXED on 'about avg' volumes)while WE slept; 10s to 6%? a tactical buy first? 'capitulation'

(USTs are MIXED, steeper on average volumes) while WE slept; 2011 called and wants it ratings headline back ... US response? It's "arbitrary"

(USTs "sharply mixed" on light volumes)while WE slept; SLOOS - tighter credit & weak demand; resteepening realz -warning for stks -BBG; corp bonds yld only 0.12% above the FFs rate -Tavi

(belly leads USTs lower on light volumes)while WE slept

weekly observations (7/31) - Lacy Hunt interview (Wealthion)

(USTs are higher, steeper following UK, Ger and BoJ all on solid (~250% avg) volumes)while WE slept; BoJ TWEAKS, illustrated; US econ DEFIES laws of gravity;

overnight flows (on light side ahead of the Fed); '127 days'; 'uncomfortably long'; “maddest macro chart”

(USTs lower, slightly steeper on light volumes)while WE slept; 5y breaks breakin'; equities mea culpas; steepner; GDI; like bonds then BUY STOCKS

weekly observations (7/24) -- have 2yy peaked, passive tightening and HIMCOs Q2 review

(USTs higher, belly BID - thanks ECB - on less light volumes)while WE slept; recession odds CUT (GS); housing; "End of the Bond Bull? Not so fast…." and gas prices relative to incomes

(USTs higher, belly BID on LIGHT volumes)while WE slept; CPI fixins'; 'bond mkt offers equity-like returns' (Clarida)

weekly observations (7/17); bullish seasonals and a lesson from history, "Inflating Away the Debt: The Debt-Inflation Channel of German Hyperinflation" (via FRBNY...)

(USTs modestly lower on light volumes into bank earnings)while WE slept; "Will the 10-Year Yield Print 5.25% by Christmas?" (and/)OR are they heading TO 3.68% first? pension fund DEMAND

(USTs BULL STEEPENED, belly BID on above avg volumes)while WE slept; "...reducing supercore inflation may require a more pronounced slowdown in overall demand..."

(USTs modest -- belly led -- BID on extremely light volumes); while WE slept; H2 = long s/t USTs; BoE change of view ... and #Got10s?

(USTs marginally BID on light volumes)while WE slept; stocks v bonds; 2yy (sellers); TLT; excess savings 'depleted'; how to hedge it all

(USTs moderately higher / steeper on light volumes)while WE slept; 2s5s, 2s and CARRY; China; stocks (and earnings) & liquidity; golden crosses forming

weekly observations (7/10); a funny thing happened on the way to blowout jobs report expected; #Got5s? checking in on 60/40 ...

(USTs 'marginally lower', belly leading on above avg volumes)while WE slept; 2yy 'shooting star' and long bonds vs 4% line in the sand as "Bond markets WANT to break free"

(USTs are lower, belly leading rates on heels of strong German data and EZ supply)while WE slept; 'most damaging day for bonds of the year'; what, ME worry (Dutta)?

(USTs higher/steeper on '~45% 10dMA volumes') while WE slept; China SERVICES slows; ISM confirms; don't pay any mind to FOMC mins; JOBS

(USTs flatter while 10s unch on 'surprisingly decent' volumes)while WE slept; 10yy monthly; 'Earl rallies; seasonals shift; melt up; review; 2yr yields 'soar, but caution required'

weekly observations (7/3rd); core steepeners engaged, H1 annotated, premature sigh of relief, corp bonds = TBILLS (?) and...

(USTs are cheaper / flatter on strong volumes)while WE slept; "we like buying smiley faces"; "Farewell To The Eurodollar"

(USTs lower, flatter on light volumes)while WE slept; "The Great US Treasury Bond Rout Is Far From Over" (10yy going TO 4.50%, Dudley), "Rate Hikes Will Continue Until Morale Deteriorates" ...

(USTs are marginally bid on light volumes) while WE slept; "Treasuries’ allure as safe haven noted in short maturities, not in long bonds" (Dallas FED) vs. "Memo: Go Long!" (Rosie)

(USTs 'modestly lower' on below avg volumes) while WE slept; demand, supply and, "Five Week Positive Streak for the S&P 500 Ends -Now What?"; Curve-o-meter SAYS...

(USTs higher, belly BID -- thanks, IFO -- on average volumes)while WE slept; #got2s; 1812 Overture? Ride Of The Valkyries?

weekly observations (6/26); "Powell Wins Over Bond Traders Dialing Back Bets on Deep Downturn" (BBG); "Three Overriding Macro Themes" (Crescat); "Outlook-at-Risk" (FRBNY) and more ... much, more...

(USTs belly BID following EZ/UK data on STRONG VOLUMES)while WE slept; "How fast will it fall?"; "Fed's Relentless Hiking Keeps Pressure on Banks"

(USTs modestly weaker / flatter after bearish 'shock of unexpectedly higher UK Core CPI (7.1%YoY, highest since 1992)'; while WE slept

(USTs cheaper / steeper)while WE slept; "The Beyoncé Effect" and "Impact of ChatGPT"

weekly observations (6/19th); buyers of DIPS; FedGPT? FRED tracking wages; Monetary Policy Report; "Nope, not locusts. They're Treasury Bills"

(USTs are "slightly weaker/flatter from overnight on light volume/activity")while WE slept; a general sense of 'sellers remorse' AND a rates (view gets)RESET

(USTs off overnight highs on above average volumes)while WE slept; FOMC victory laps right TO China data, cuts...

(USTs lower on above avg volumes ahead of the Fed)while WE slept; CPI victory laps; "Signal From Liquidity Is Becoming Loud And Clear"

(USTs are "aggressively mixed" on strong volumes)while WE slept; China CUTS; CPI precaps; JUNK; Earl...

(USTs mixed, curve a 'hair flatter' into supply, CPI and FOMC all on LIGHT VOLUMES)while WE slept; SUPPLY + CPI + FOMC = X, please solve for X

weekly observations (6/12); CPI and FOMC precaps

(USTs are lower ahead of SUPPLY and DESPITE China data and all on LIGHT VOLUMES)while WE slept; "Global liquidity* has risen despite QT"; IF pause THEN CUTS(?)

(USTs modestly lower on average volumes)while WE slept; MoF data (Japan BUYIN'); thanks Canada (AND RBA); CPI and FOMC precaps;

(USTs lower on light volumes)while WE slept; "In normal markets..."; CHINA; decision point dead ahead (TLT)

(USTs lean green, belly leads thanks to Germany all on light volumes)while WE slept; revised yield f'casts (higher); 'more Powell-Bell' and "Lower Risks, Higher Rates"

(USTs lower on light volumes)while WE slept; mid-year checkin (MS bearish stks); UST short base grows; JPOW goes TO Dead & Co show in VA this weekend...

weekly observations (06/05); increased vol forcing SOME out of trades while net (large)specs sport LARGEST EVER short 10yr into 'blackout period' ...

(USTs a 'hair lower' / steeper on WEAK volumes)while WE slept; the 'Druckenmiller indicator' SAYS; "Warming to Duration"; 30s and cattle

(USTs lower / flatter on average volumes) while WE slept; LESS cowbell (changed Fed call); "5yr yields’ turning point?"

(USTs following EZ)while WE slept; booms, busts; short 2s & spoos; NFP SEASONALS

(USTs richer / flatter out to 10s on above avg volumes) while WE slept; from "...The record short position in Treasuries is not all that it seems..." TO 'large specs' net short in 10s largest EVER'

weekly observations (5/29th); DEAL (or no deal?) so issuance may be coming; "Markets will struggle as 500bn of liquidity is removed to rebuild the Treasury cash buffer"; "Deflation Tsunami"

(USTs higher / steeper on light volumes) while WE slept; "Painfully Accurate: The 10YR3M Recession Indicator" -EPB; happy 127th bday Dow

(USTs lower / flatter on below avg volumes) while WE slept; Fitch; Nvidia

(USTs mixed / higher despite GILT selloff on light volumes)while WE slept; foreigners bought 2s, will they buy 5s? 'history of the FFs/2s spread w/core inflation'

(USTs are lower and curve is flatter on avg volumes) while WE slept; UST liquid NOT bad (they say); a PAUSE is coming (Prof. Siegel); raisin' the roof (BAML SPX target); #Got2s?

(USTs higher apres Yellen + Ka$shkari and on below avg volumes)while WE slept;

weekly observations (5/22); record short 2s, some levels to watch and ... got 5s? a roadmap TO a June HIKE (and reasons to be wary of stks)

(USTs mixed, 'clinging to support' on avg volumes) while WE slept; LOTTA LIQUIDITY + AI + large dollop of HOPE AND … we're aggressively UNCH over past 9mo (since Jackson Hole)

(USTs lower/steeper on slightly above avg volumes) while WE slept; signs labor mkt cracking; dealin' w/ceiling, a timeline; regional banks bid (short covering?)

(USTs are "a hair" higher/flatter on below avg volumes) while WE slept; "Dealing with the ceiling"

(USTs are higher (thanks TO China data DUMP) on above avg volumes)while WE slept; love letters; near-term forward; copper/gold; SOMNOLENT

(belly leads USTs 'modestly lower' on ~80% volumes) while WE slept; UMissAgain; walls of worry

(USTs are 'MODESTLY higher' and 'modestly' flatter on above avg volumes)while WE slept; CPI recaps / victory laps; Fed model; sched update

(USTs 'mixed' with curve flattening on nearly average volumes)while WE slept; 10yy reFUNding insights; CPI skews; USTs bene debt ceiling chicken; 2yy in CONTEXT

(USTs higher on back of China data and with light volumes)while WE slept; NFIB and SLOOS; debt ceiling chicken ...

(USTs lower / flatter on xtremely LIGHT volumes) while WE slept; econ VS banks OR banks + economy (which equation equals PIVOT?)

weekly observations (May 8th); utter chaos on front-end of the curve; 'The Wreck of The Fiat Currencies'... sorry, Gordo

(USTs lower as light GOLDEN WEEK volumes persist)while WE slept; FEAR that matters most

(USTs MIXED on avg volumes)while WE slept; remain calm. all is well; reFUNding; FOMC and a couple / few charts ...

(USTs 'modestly higher' and curve flatter on extremely light volumes)while WE slept; another day another 'love letter'; 5yy; curves, X-dates, supply & "Buy <bonds> in May and Enjoy The Stay"

(USTs are higher / flatter on above avg volumes) while WE slept; 6 recession indicators; love letter from Yellen TO McCarthy and a 'June deadline afterall? (GS); construction (of forward yields (FRED)

(USTs are lower / flatter on light volumes given May Day holiday closing much of EZ)while WE slept; biz cycle in 15 charts (OR just one); sell in May...

weekly observations (May 1st)

(USTs are HIGHER and the curve 'modestly flatter' on above average volumes)while WE slept; large short base meet '4pm is the new 3pm' (Oprah, Uma. Uma. Oprah...)

(USTs are lower on light volumes) while WE slept; GDP to be 'kneecapped'; copper+gold=lower yields; sell in may

(USTs aggressively UNCH on above avg volumes) while WE slept; "Are Rates Too High? Too Low? Just Right? Depends on Who You Ask"; M2 where are you? Twist again?

(belly leading USTs higher on below avg volumes) while WE slept; {DOTS <GO>} revealed; X-Date;

(USTs modestly higher on below avg volumes)while WE slept

REAL ODL

(USTs higher / STEEPER on average volumes) while WE slept; supply of money and the REAL 'other' deposit liabilities of commercial banks (latest HIMCO missive...)

(USTs lower / flatter with 130% avg volumes on heels of strong UK 'flation print)while WE slept; BULLard; trading the PEAK; IS 'Merica already IN recession (quick, someone check the canary)

(USTs are higher/steeper outpacing EZ, UK on solid, albeit from a lower base, volumes)while WE slept; "Economy Not Falling Apart Yet. Keyword: Yet." -Prof Siegel

(USTs modestly lower, flatter on decent o/n volumes)while WE slept; "Gradually, Then Suddenly"; MARG debt;

sellside observations for the week ahead (04/17); Waller must not have gotten rate CUTS memo; largest net SHORT 10y since 2018?

(USTs little changed, belly bid on about avg volumes again)while WE slept; 1yr CDS? "The Wile E. Coyote effect"; Coppock BUY signal and more...

(USTs lower / steeper on decent volumes)while WE slept; "Real Money Longest Since Oct 2010"

(USTs are lower / flatter on 'normal' volumes ahead of CPI)while WE slept; "Three Sequential Signals of Recession ... The Most Dangerous 8-Month Period" -EPB (please read, great stuff)

(USTs higher / steeper on ~150% avg volumes, post China 'flation)while WE slept; credit access 'worst ever'; 60/40 is BACK, baby! (tell S&P short base?)

(USTs bull steepened on ~30% avg volumes)while WE slept; "The biggest 2-week decline in bank lending in history"

sellside observations for the week ahead (04/10); WORK not jobs, bank deposits

(UNCH due to market closures and NO, not light, volumes)while WE slept

(USTs higher / steeper on avg volumes)while WE slept; govy liquidity challenged (MESSTER not helpin), a claims WARNing, an NFP revision

ADP?

(USTs lower / FLATTER on below avg volumes once again) while WE slept; near term forward spread

(USTs are lower on light volumes, Gilts & Bunds underperform)while WE slept; ISM "Alert"; TBILL 'danger zone'; Marko the bear

(USTs lower / flatter on light volumes); while WE slept; OPEC CUTS is it DISINFLATIONARY or INflationary?

sellside observations for the week ahead (04/03); don't look now, calendar 'bout to turn bond friendly; "What SHOULD We Wish For?" and more...

(USTs unch on 50% avg volumes)while WE slept; revised FED call, stock jockeys (& all macro tourists) watchin' curve, money flooding in TO money market mutual funds & bonds forming 'tradeable lows'

(USTs modestly steeper on light volumes)while WE slept; stress UP, nothing without consequence, debt ceiling and are safe havens still safe? Is it different this time?

(USTs are 'quietly bull steepening' on light volumes)while WE slept; Gundlach WARNS, a Volcker like tightening, global trade SLOWS, rate CUTS 'round the corner...

(5s lead cheapening as 2s5s10s +5bps)while WE slept; economists = weatherman

(USTs 'sharply lower and the curve flatter' on light volumes); while WE slept; "Duration Is Required" -MurphyCharts

sellside observations for the week ahead (March 27th); remain calm all is well. when the facts change ... narratives follow price action.

(USTs 'sharply' higher as yields driven by EZ markets on robust volumes) while WE slept; beatings in 20s shall continue; "Buying bonds isn’t exciting..." (but that IS the reco)

(USTs lower, flatter on light volumes) while WE slept; YELLEN>JPOW; everyone agrees - the curve has now bottomed - let the cyclical steepening commence ... someone inform 3m vs 18mo fwd 3m bill crv

(USTs are lower / flatter on light volumes)while WE slept; Banking stresses EASE as FDIC studies...

(USTs bid, off highs, on robust volumes)while WE slept. 2yy vs 4.032 (March close) and ODL

sellside observations for the week ahead (3/20) - stuff to read before Crisis TV returns (Sunday afternoon, 4p?) with news of UBS deal to buy CSFB (?); annotated FF; message from curve

(USTs off o/n lows after PBoC cut RRR all on very light volumes) while WE slept; Discount Window OPEN and USTs liquidity a concern...

(lower/flatter on above avg volumes)while WE slept; First Boston SAVED (for now) ... a fitting happy anniversary (JPM buys Bear, the day C19 nearly 'broke the financial markets')

(wild swings overnight on nearly 185% of the avg volumes) while WE slept; CSFB > svb

(USTs are lower, bearishly flatter on ~175% of 10d avg volumes)while WE slept; HIKE, hold or CUTS and end of QT ... as the world turns.

(bull steepening, underperforming BUNDS and all on 5x avg volumes with liquidity 'challenged')while WE slept; #BTFP; "Removing Our March Fed Rate Hike Expectation" -GS;

breathe; fact vs hyperbole; collapse in bank deposits; happy bazookA-versary; picked the wrong day to (stop sniffin' glue and / or turn clocks) AND ... its gone.

sellside observations for the week ahead (03/13th); SVB is / is NOT 2008 (please choose); it is / is NOT different this time (please choose); 2yy (and THE bible) weigh in

(USTs hold 1/2 o/n bull steepening BID on heavy volumes EARLY which faded into EZ hours)while WE slept; You down wit SVB...

(USTs aggressively UNCH on extremely light volumes)while WE slept

(USTs lower, flatter on SOLID VOLUMES)while WE slept; liz warren V JPOW

(USTS bid but lagging EZ, UK and Aussie on below avg volumes)while WE slept; JPOW, jobs, how to HEDGE and how markets reflex TO HH

(USTs are higher, flatter on above avg volumes)while WE slept; shooting stars, new BUND targets and dismal scientists say ...

sellside observations for the week ahead (March 6th 2023) -- doubling down or stopping OUT? BONDS > stocks ... messages from yield curves

(USTs higher, flatter on solid volumes)while WE slept; Happy (?) Rate-Cut-A-versary; "...The bond market thinks this economic bad news is just getting started."

(USTs sold off with Bunds on 'flation and all on continued above avg volumes)while WE slept; EZ 'flation hits 8.5%, 10yy hit ~4.05% (next stop 4.22%?)

(USTs mixed, curve flatter on strong volumnes)while WE slept; China data BEAT; worst FEB for global AGG; global TRADE weak

(USTs lower on strong volumes, better than EGBs after CPI)while WE slept...; from “cute wiener dogs in the metaverse” TO 10yy facing a, "tough battle to break above 4%

(USTs lower / flatter following Germany today on what seems to be strong volumes)while WE slept; "Global Bonds Erase Record Opening Rally as Inflation Lingers"

30yrs ago today; Buffet SAYS current admin chock full of, "...economic illiterate"; is it different this time?

sellside observations for the week ahead (February 27th, 2023); Cash(siusus clay) is king; flash crash; giving credit;

(USTs lower, belly led by Japan CPI 41y HIGH) while WE slept; yuuuuuge spike in Japanese 'foreign bond flows' (5% UST yields matter)

(USTs being LED LOWER by Gilts on heels of firm EZ 'flation print all onLIGHT VOLUMES) while WE slept; Housing DOWN; Janice Eberly LIKES 'flation (is she short long bonds?)

(modest BID) while WE slept; "...Intermediate yields now look somewhat cheap"; 'stocks start falling to reconnect with bonds'

(USTs LED LOWER by GILTS on below avg volumes)while WE slept

happy TEA PARTY anniversary; leaving the (equity risk premium) 'high risk zone' and now entering the "Death Zone" (queued Kenny Loggins video)

sellside observations for the week ahead (Feb 22nd); appears Fed's gonna be lookin' for a 'bigger boat'

(USTs are lower on strong volumes)while WE slept

(USTs mixed/steeper on light volumes) while WE slept; foreign private investors BOUGHT. AGAIN (14mo in a row)

(modestly BID on light volumes)while WE slept, the 'graveyard' for 3yy (relative TO 2s5s)

(modestly higher / steeper on light volumes ahead of CPI) while WE slept; trading CPI ((JPM, DB game plans); monetary policy and muni (il)liquidity

(USTs MIXED, flatter on below average volumes)while WE slept

sellside observations from the week just passed and for the one just head (Feb 13th) ...

(lower / steeper on nearly avg volume)while WE slept; animal spirits, 2s, Schatz and some other random thoughts / technicals...

(USTs bid on little news and light volumes)while WE slept

(modest o/n bid on avg volumes)while WE slept; "Debt Ceiling tension likely to rise significantly"; CREDIT? pivot or platform?

(mixed / steeper on above avg volumes)while WE slept; "...the bond traders are still the cool kids."

(USTs lower / flatter on extremely HIGH VOLUMES)while WE slept; 6 indicators of recession in 2023 and more...

sellside observations from the week that was AND for the one just ahead (Feb 6) as "The Fed Fights the Fed" and lets play 'debt ceiling chicken' (WSJ)

(USTs modestly higher, 5s30s steeper on above avg (~160%) volumes)while WE slept; a large BET; dovish hikes? (60/40s) NOT dead yet ...

(USTs touch higher, belly leading on ~140% of the average volumes) while WE slept;

(USTs 'modestly richer/flatter' on 'subpar' volumes) while WE slept

(USTs mixed on above avg volumes o/n) while WE slept; 'when to buy bonds'

(avg volumes as USTs dragged lower by BUNDS after Spanish 'flation) while WE slept; pension FUNDed status = UST demand?

dinosaurs and bonds (and bond BUYERS buyin' THE pivot)

(belly leading selloff on 'statistically weak' volumes) while WE slept; bad news IS good; DFS chargeoffs; COLAs good (but not good 'nuff); yields 'bout to DROP (RoC...)

(touch steeper, strong volumes) while WE slept; soft landing narrative dead? foreign private buyers BOUGHT and China sold (again); debt ceiling drama GUIDE (WFC); HIMCO bullish; some 30yy levels ...

(USTs higher, flatter on nearly DOUBLE avg volumes -- thanks BoJ!) while WE slept; and long bonds 'threatening an irregular topping structure BELOW 3.405/3.355%'

(USTs lower, steeper on about avg volumes) while WE slept; CHINA: blowout Q4 data; BoJ next source of global macro risks; "Bonds Over Stocks: The New 60-40 Portfolio" -WSJ

sellside observations from the week that was AND which will be (Jan 16): "Highest Bond Inflows In 18 Months"; updated (LOWERED) rate calls; sell 10s (outright) but then, buy vs...

(cheaper/steeper on strong volumes) while WE slept; BoJ losin' (YC)control? 'GOOD' CPI -- Wall St reacts (and bond buyers BOUGHT) ...

(USTs higher / flatter on above avg volumes) while WE slept; listen to the bond market (Gundlach); apparently it's different this time? (BLK, LPL)

(USTs lower, flatter on avg volumes)while WE slept; NFIB; (10yy) shorts and longs and tightly correlated markets; good views and some less good ...

(USTs lower on light volumes)while WE slept; BULLISH weekly (equity) candles; 'Stocks vs. Bonds: The Rematch' (bonds beginning to BEAT stocks)

On this day; 20yy; S&P (infl adj); TEMP services jobs; ISM new orders; financial curve; RoW > US

sellside observations from the week that was AND which will be (Jan 9th); short base INCREASING; 30yr total return mean reversion coming?

(USTs mixed, flatter on below avg volumes into NFP)while WE slept; quits and the curve (DB); some CURVES (and FRBSF); Liberty Street SAYS..

(lower & flatter on decent volumes)while WE slept; Ka$hkari blog, FOMC mins and pricing, claims up MORE than 23% ... and Campbell Harvey's curve SAYS

(belly leading bid on avg volumes)while WE slept; best start for bonds since 2001; 'the <equity> bears favorite chart'; a chart so bearish its BULLISH

(USTs higher, flatter out to 7yy on 'solid' volumes) while WE slept; trimmed mean disinflation; 'yields tend to fall after steep increases' -LPL