weekly observations (6/12); CPI and FOMC precaps
Good morning / afternoon / evening (please choose whichever one which best describes when ever it may be that YOU are stumbling across this weekends note…
I’m going to be real brief as the weekend quickly fades and markets are set to open in just a couple / few hours.
I do not have ANY answers or even uneducated guesses as to what this week will bring and feel as though it is one of those times when … if you told me NOW what the Fed will (won’t) do, I might still muck up the trade…That in mind, I’ll be real brief.
First up, and in as far as Global Wall Street inbox and link-A-palooza, a couple items stood out to ME
BMO weekly, ‘Poised to Pause’ — reentered core 5s30s steepener, buyer of dip
MS updated UST f’casts: “… we see 10-year yields ending 2023 at 3.50% and then declining to 3.30% by mid-2024. 2-year yields end 2023 at 3.80%, moving towards 3.50% by the middle of 2024. We suggest being outright long duration (long 10y UST) over the medium term…”
It goes without saying there’s plenty on the upcoming CPI as well as this weeks FOMC meeting — to pause or NOT to pause, that still seems to be a reasonable question.
If all THAT weren’t ‘nuff, a couple / few things from the intertubes for your dining and dancing pleasure …
First up an FOMC precap (short version of some/many of the notes you’ll find HERE)
Calculated Risk: FOMC Preview: A Likely "Pause"
And a few words on Jobless Claims from Eric
EPB: Jobless Claims Jump In June
And on higher rates for consumers, cutting both ways …
WolfStreet: 5% Interest Income from CDs, T-Bills, Money Markets Fueled Spending. Higher Borrowing Costs Cut Spending. And on Net?
AND for those of us who may be chart-minded,
Hedgopia: spec short 10s declines a touch
McClellan: COT Report Data on Copper Offer A Glimpse Into Economy
StockCharts: Is the Bull Market Back? Watch These Charts
ScotiaBank: Global Week Ahead in CHARTS
AND for any / all (still) reading, my condolences and gratitude … IF you are interested in trying to plan your trades and trade your plans in / around FUNduhMENTALs, here are a couple economic calendars and LINKS I used when I was closer to and IN ‘the game’.
First, this from the best in the strategy biz is a LINK thru TO this calendar,
Wells FARGOs version, if you prefer …
… and lets NOT forget EconOday links (among the best available and most useful IMO), GLOBALLY HERE and as far as US domestically (only) HERE …
A big week ahead, a BIG NYY game this evening. Enjoy what is left of the weekend … THAT is all for now. Enjoy whatever is left of YOUR weekend …