Good morning / afternoon / evening (please choose which ever one which best describes when ever you are stumbling across this shorter than short note) …
CSFB suggesting one should ‘fade gold strength … for now’ EPB Macro update, “Consumer Pressure Continues” GSrevising yield forecasts in note titled, ‘LOWER, NOT LOW' MSadding a LONG 5y WFClookin for JUNE FOMC PAUSE and …
… If, as we expect, economic growth starts to buckle later this year, we then expect the Fed to begin to ease policy. We forecast a sizable amount of easing to take place in 2024 and see the fed funds rate falling back to a range of 2.25%-2.50%
There’s more. More than one shop bidding adieu to eurodollar futures and I’ve gotta be honest with you, bit surprised how much ink spilled in defense OF the pause at least relative TO the other way ‘round…Then again, the narratives following the price and the price continues to suggest rate CUTS.
Mark May 3 in your calendar now. That’s when traders expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates for the last time in this tightening cycle.
Despite repeated push back from central bankers, the market is now betting on three rate cuts this year from that peak, firm in the belief a US recession is looming.
It’s not just traders expecting the economy to get worse, with four-out-of-five participants to a survey by the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers expecting a US recession in 2023 and a rise in corporate defaults. That poll comes as the US junk bond market shrank to $1.41 trillion, down 11% from its peak in October 2021.
These forecasts of economic gloom have investors on the hunt for bond markets primed to outperform if the global rate-hike cycle is indeed close to a peak…
Guessing, Waller SPEECH — he didn’t get the RATE CUTS COMIN’ memo?
Now as the data dust settles, to the zerohedge, first the BAD news (or is it good,
… Bottom line: the 'lag' from monetary policy, coupled with the hit to spending following the bank crisis is starting to catch up.
So as good (or bad) as you may wanna view the ReSale TALES data … really is all for naught as about 15mins later, Waller comments HERE, dropped. ZeroHedge,
Ok, you are more than competent of heading TO ZeroHedge on your own and SO … I’m moving on. Taking a moment to pause and consider POSITIONS. Earlier in the week everyone was buzzin’ about SPX positions and how specs net short was most since 2011 (see HIT HERE).
Large NET shorts in stocks, then. OK, great. What about BONDS, you may ask? Well, I’m glad you did…
Hedgopia showing net spec short 10yy up a touch WoW BUT … they are now, “HIGHEST SINCE October …”
OH … nevermind … As the wait for HIMCOs Q1 missive goes on (check out EPB Macros latest … should help tide you over), I’ll bring this to a close … soon but first, in as far as some ‘official’ reading, I’m going to add THIS ONE on MBR (Minimum Balance Risk) from the FRBNY to MY list …
The note concludes,
…To Sum Up The MBR was introduced a decade ago as a means of mitigating run risks in MMFs. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) included the MBR as part of one alternative in its 2012 “Proposed Recommendations for Money Market Mutual Fund Reform,” and eight years later, following the run on MMFs in March 2020, the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets again identified the MBR as an option for MMF reform. Here, we’ve shown that the MBR could be used to mitigate risks in another run-prone segment of the financial markets, uninsured deposits at banks.
Dunno ‘bout you … am not feelin too much better but … so it goes.
AND for any / all (still)interested in trying to plan your trades and trade your plans in / around FUNduhMENTALs, here are a couple economic calendars and LINKS I used when I was closer to and IN ‘the game’.
First, this from the best in the strategy biz is a LINKthru TO this calendar,
PS-as a Gold Bug I actually agree with Fade the gold rallies, people who should know better in the metals space are getting all hot & bothered. Patience Grasshopper, wait for the pause-pivot, then brace yourself for eruption. Fill up your boots on the dips while you can!
Hello great article! I am wondering how you can get access to the sources you link to? Is it by pledging our support? Thank you for the countless great articles.
Nice funnies today cheers!
PS-as a Gold Bug I actually agree with Fade the gold rallies, people who should know better in the metals space are getting all hot & bothered. Patience Grasshopper, wait for the pause-pivot, then brace yourself for eruption. Fill up your boots on the dips while you can!
Hello great article! I am wondering how you can get access to the sources you link to? Is it by pledging our support? Thank you for the countless great articles.