Sitemap - 2022 - The BondBeat

You Owe Me -Charles Hugh Smith and what may BE the best XMAS ad ever (and a few other items of interest ...)

On this day ... THE Fed, the PPT and the Immaculate Reception and...

(USTs touch lower, steeper with 'challenged' volume stats) while WE slept; "Turns Out Rich People Like Bonds" -@kgreifeld; worst year for 60/40 since 2008 and more (good = bad)

(USTs modestly higher, belly leads on 50% of normal volumes) while WE slept; a steepening break lurking?; buyers of (long bond)DIPS; BoJ

(USTs modest belly led steepening on LIGHT volumes) while WE slept; 'Santa is on his back foot', more on BoJ

(USTs lower, steeper on SOLID VOLUMES) while WE slept; BoJs YCC surprise, expands target band to 50bps from 25bps; discount window usage on rise?

(steeper on 'very weak' volumes running ~55% avg) while WE slept; stocks "COULD" be +10% in 2023; 60/40 meeting resistance

sellside observations for the week ahead (12/19th) -- "Recessions's Greetings" -TIME (1974)

(USTs bear steepening - following BUNDS and all on below avg volumes) while WE slept; ReSale TALES, who's BUYIN' and rates and Federal debt ...

(USTs MIXED, curve flatter on avg volumes) while WE slept; the elephant in the room; "...liquidity is poor and expectations for yield swings remain elevated..."

(USTs 'still' bull steepening)while WE slept; 'trading the fomc'; card spending showing a step back in growth;

(USTs modestly BID, flatter on about avg volumes)while WE slept; 'REAL' rates from 1870 - present

(USTs higher, curve flatter on light volumes) while WE slept; short-base meet triangulatin' 10yy w/bearish momentum; lookin' for rate PEAKS; 2yy & stocks; 'focus on earnings RISK'

sellside observations for the week ahead (12/12); BLKs 'rethinking bonds' (stays bearish), BMO bullish for 2023, and BoEs thinking about costs LARGE bond trades

(USTs mixed, curve steeper on light volumes) while WE slept; a lonely bond BEAR; technical reasons to LIKE bonds; technicals bullish stocks, too (coincidence?)

(USTs mixed/flatter on below avg volumes)while WE slept; CONSUMERS -- credit data shows high CC debt and low savings rate; #gotHOLIDAYsales? RATES REVERSING

('FI lethargy' and downside protection noted) while WE slept; 'Earl now DOWN on year; rent'flation 'plunging'

(Bunds lead USTs marginally higher on about avg volumes)while WE slept; % of years since 1793 when the long-term Treasury market rose -WSJ; Tip-flation

(USTs lower and flatter on below avg volumes) while WE slept; irrational exuberance.

sellside observations for (12/05th) the week ahead, USTs to make a comeback in 2023 (DB and Rich Bernstein) ... and cute puppy picture

(unch on STRONG VOLUMES)while WE slept; the elephant (JPOW) in the room ...

(USTs marginally bid, belly leads on ~avg volumes) while WE slept; global inversion; curve and 'Earl; JPOW speaks, is he worth listening to? 'PIVOT AHEAD'; assets and the 4 Fed phases;

(USTs bid, belly leads - on decent volumes - after periph 'flation data ) while WE slept; MOVE & S&P; "dark side of the boom";

(USTs mixed, flatter on above avg volumes) while WE slept; 'temporarily painful' (DB); bears BOTTOMED (Yardeni); Team Transitory's back

sellside week ahead -- 11/28th and a happy YCC anniversary to us all ...

sellside week ahead - November 28th (with even MORE 2023 darts thrown)

(PBoC cuts RRR as Beijing battles COVID and USTs 'modestly' lower, belly weakest on about AVG volumes)while WE slept; pivot "SOON" -FOMC mins; "The Bullwhip Effect"; 10yy headed for BIG (monthly) fall

(mixed on light volumes due to holiday and soccer) while WE slept; Gruesome 7Y Auction (ZH); '...Peak Hawkishness Has Passed...'; "risk OFF, yield ON" -PIMCO; Fed Funds 12mo ROC; S&P YTD

(USTs higher, curve steeper on light volumes)while WE slept; pause ≠ pivot (and those HOPES are premature); 'bonds are back' (but...); a couple more 2023 outlooks

(USTs mixed on LIGHT VOLUMES...)while WE slept; SKOR export data fell again in the first 20 days of November (-16.7% y/y)

sellside week ahead - November 21st

(USTs lower on light volumes w/20s OUTperforming...) while WE slept; are rates followin' USD? (who cares, it's gonna be messy and good for stocks); update on the 'bible' (2s5s)

(belly offered on above avg volumes ...) while WE slept; 2023 darts continue flyin'; stories 'bout job cuts

(nearly UNCH, steeper on modest volumes...) while WE slept; spottin' THE turn in macro; 20% decline in house prices POSSIBLE (FRBDallas); UST liquidity (as viewed by those on Liberty Street)

(belly BID on strong volumes)while WE slept; bullish belly; holiday spending; "...the outlook for bonds seems likely to improve faster than for equities..."

(WALLer Street Journal = lower / STEEPER USTs on decent volumes)while WE slept; 2023 'flation outlook

sellside observations for the week (and year?)ahead

(about avg volumes o/n) while WE slept...recession indicators benign (for now); close to a (bullish) turn (look at 10s/BUNDS); cars N crypto; the TAILOR rule

(curve MIXED / flatter on light volumes)while WE slept; a 'Long-Term Strategist'; a couple / few charts

(modest belly BID on above avg volumes)while WE slept; midterms VIGIL; 'inflation nutters'; stayin 'tactically bullish' 5yy

(USTs mixed, light volume, flattening)while WE slept; consumers in 2023; QT; PAUSE and effect;

sellside observations and the (Nov 7) week ahead; Zweig's Investing Rules; short personal note about next weekend

(belly outperforming on muted volumes ahead of NFP)while WE slept; beware the SPIN -- NFP and the 'dash for cash' (biggest 1d OUTFLOW from SHV)

(UST losses XTEND on light volumes)while WE slept; the squeeze been squeezed; "That 60/40 needs a good hug" (from FX)

(USTs mixed on light volumes ahead of the FED); while WE slept; To Pivot Or Not; a couple curve views; 10yy vs 4% (and/or 3.84%)

(belly BID, weak mfg data o/n, Chinese stocks SOAR on C19 spec)while WE slept; monthly performance review; demographics to limit US growth outlook;

(10yy lower FOLLOWING Bunds on decent vol) while WE slept; no (iBOND) 9.62% for YOU! 'turn tactically bullish 5yy'

(light volume belly-led selloff overnight) while WE slept; EPBMacro update; GDP delusions -UBS; copper / gold; M2 growth slowing = PIVOT

(tech earnings helped USTs maintain BID on 'about avg volumes o/n; TLTs oversold) while WE slept; Rosie makes, "The Case for Bonds"; a(nother) Halloween costume idea

(belly BID in US on light volumes, flattening Ger & UK))while WE slept; 2023 economy (and so, equity performance) to be 'highly challenging'

(USTs higher, curve steeper, EZ PMIs disappointed) while WE slept; as the world turns ... rates vol echoing '08, margin debt and vigilantes are being sought

(UK 'flation; P&G says; mortgage DEMAND DROPPED)while WE slept

(strong volumes, BoE confusion and China data delayed)while WE slept; reserve balances and the SPX; mortgage rates JUMP; govy liquidity and HY; a Halloween costume idea

(muted volumes)while WE slept; hunt for yield; ODL; TECHNICALS > funDUHmentals (?)

happy FLASH CRASH-a-versary; knock knock, who's there, TREASURY buying back Treasuries? (just a few)sellside observations and the week ahead; "Volckernomics" (HIMCO dropped)

(monster GILT bid, Japanese SOLD...) while WE slept; Team Transitory makin' a 'Stros - like comeback?

(light UST volumes and NOT shocking news from Saudi's) while WE slept; 'trading cpi'; USTs > Schatz, bobls, "Buying Wine for the “Duration Party”

while WE slept; 10s to PEAK (@4.20%, no NOT Elon Musk); $31 trillion dollar distraction;

(what JPM said and BoE DID)while WE slept; fx-hedging, an update; got3s?

while WE slept

sellside observations and the week ahead

(nuke 'Armageddon' risks elevated) while WE slept; 'since 1310 bond yields have fallen with metronomic regularity', headed TO / below ZERO (2066) for good...

(light vol, belly-led selloff o/n) while WE slept; Michael (theBIG SHORT) Burry speaks (tweets) and Lacy Hunt replies

(a 'dovish' RBA surprise, bull steepening on robust volumes) while WE slept; OPEC v the fed; "The start of a stock/bond shift"

(low volume bull steepening) while WE slept; risk assets tracking balance sheets heading towards the 'light at the of the tunnel...

sellside observations (that light at the end of the tunnel ... ), data just ahead; Lacy Hunt SAYS ... and stages of returning TO the office

4pm. It's the new 3pm ...

(pray for Tua along w/everyone ELSE IN FLA) while WE slept; VaR and LDI; a message from JNK? 4pm (the new 3pm) cannot come fast enough

(61 happened)while WE slept; GILTS; 'tactically bullish' bonds (and becoming bearish commods)

(BoE PIVOT, ~double o/n volumes)while WE slept; largest 1d DROP in 30y GILTS (61.8bps) as CBs practice Steven Wright monetary policy

(bullish steepening on ~140% avg volumes) while WE slept; YoY %age change in DXY (past is prologue?);' as 2023 (cuts) leaves the building, 2024 hopes remain alive

sellside observations; fundamental calendars and a football score.

('very respectable' UST volumes o/n) while WE slept; 5yy over 4.00%; Goldilocks CUTS S&P tgt by 16%; The Ice Age Is Over (Really); 10yy (monthly), 30yy (weekly)

(solid o/n volumes) while WE slept; BoE chaos; Yentervention! (unlikely to work) as JGBs haven't traded in couple days;

(strong volumes)while WE slept; UST mkt illiquidity; less than 1/2 'manhattanites' back IN office; Americans drowin' in credit (i'm sure rate hikes gonna help...)

while WE slept; Got20s?; get REAL (FedFunds)

while WE slept; a 'textbook' bear market rally (stocks); USTs yield MORE THAN junk bonds

sellside observations; "Rates, rates, rates"; "TINA Has Left the Building" and a few economic calendars for the football games (and the week ahead)

while WE slept; FedEX?; bonds / related charts; UST liquidity remains impaired (and couple updated TERMINAL rate calls)

while WE slept; "Peak in LONG rates in sight"; w/2yy now ABOVE 3.75% (highest since '07), think either 4.45% OR, "Opportunity"; Fed rate cuts remain priced;

while WE slept (why we're all watching 145 USDJPY); "Tightening into a slowdown"; FOMCs decision tree and somewhat more

while WE slept; QQQs tied TO bond yields; "The consumer is king, and unhappy"; UST liquidity WORSE than pandemic AND post-Lehman (so says JPM...)

while WE slept; CPI to determine spec EQUITY positions; trade (equity)ranges; is THE 'widowmaker trade' back?

sellside observations on a very solemn day of remembrance ...

while WE slept, overnight flows light; "A Clue From the Two"; a REAL SPIKE

while WE slept; Goldilocks updated Fed call; another shop CUTTING (China) GROWTH call ... and things you should NOT do (v3.0)

while WE slept (block BUYERS); a 'long inflation fight' ahead requires 'sustained' & positive REALZ; global AGG BEAR and beige not boring

while we slept; goldilocks predicts goldilocks; doom and gloom predicted by stock-jockey; stocks vs bonds and will the REAL mortgage payment please sit down...

sellside reacts TO NFP (and a few other items of interest...dip being bought as shorts XTEND and commods peaking?)

while we slept; jobs are a lagging indicator; 'the employment report is wrong' -UBS; 'Dash for Cash' (biggest 1d INFLOW TO SHV since 2015); gdp vs GDI -FRED

while we slept; CMDI = all is well; 5yy 2nd biggest MONTHLY spike since; JNK bonds selloff; "Deteriorating Liquidity"

while we slept; MATH of 'historically high' inflation rate & the student loan fiasco; "Overall, quits remain near record highs."; yield curve 'analysis' (circa 2005)

while we slept; toppin' 10s

overnight flows light (UK holiday)

sellside reactions to JPOW @ JHOLE

while we slept; hawk-filled skies; "the battle to (FX) the bottom"

while we slept; "War means industry"; should the 4% (10yy)debate be resurrected (watch 3.1%); fibo construction zone

while we slept (got20s?); GALLUP says (we're all suffering); PwC says (jobs data completely COOKED); MSI turns NEGATIVE

while we slept; EZ service sector growth 'grinds to a near-halt'; bond mkt warns of more pain in stocks;

while we slept; China CUTS PRIME RATES; happy 45th TO the long bond; net (non-commercial) SHORT UST positions largest since 2018

sellside observations (any money market PMs? terminal and the Tetons; ice age finally broken, here's what is next) and...

while we slept (Japan BUYS); SURPRISE; some (5yy) longs stopped OUT; S&P 3200? a rule (with perfect track record) says (stk)mkt has NOT yet bottomed; 'financial bible' update

while we slept; 20yr in DEMAND; excess savings ≠ demand; seasonals, 50dMA and H&S ...

while we slept; deflation -- one of China's exports; 'the big test'; the fall of the empire; financial conditions ease and threaten CB 'flation fight

while we slept; US/China (Taiwan) and PBoC; housing affordability; inflation peak? maybe, maybe not (watch 'outliers'); positions

while we slept; only the shadow (fed funds) knows

while we slept; "Curb Your Enthusiasm on the Good Inflation News"

while we slept; a meaningful quest (for duration); from 'disinflation ahead' TO ... ; "climate and inflation: hotter prices for a cooler planet";

while we slept; inflation seen as biggest problem since 1979 -NFIB; consumers trading down and missing payments; commodity (dis)inflation;

while we slept; "Disinflation Ahead"; why Japan's been sellin' 'foreign bonds' (ie USTs); 'Dr. Doom' on bond mkts lack of 'liquidity' and more

sellside observations (NFP recaps / victory laps), a couple FUNduhMENTAL economic calendars and "...statistically indistinguishable from zero ..." (the IRA which has passed)

while we slept; bonds lead TO summer equity BID; August 5th, 2011

while we slept (extremely quiet); BoE largest hike in 27yrs; WalMart + CSFB = layoffs; “I don’t feel the pain of inflation anymore ..." -Daly

while we slept; "Bond Sell-off For The Ages"; stocks GET REALz (in '22); 'team transitory' is back?

while we slept; a lack of liquidity in the bond market; War and Interest Rates -Zoltan

while we slept; bullish BOND seasonals; fed cred = BONDS > stocks

a few sellside observations, the bible, seasonals and a look at the funDUHmental week ahead

while we slept; a picture(s) worth a thousand words; "Beware The Bible"; implied forward curves; impact from QT; got20s?

while we slept; the FOMCs hawkish hike / dovish presser; bond SEASONALS

while we slept; TINA no more; Recession Monitor (vs Coincident Index); a Major Bond Letter

while we slept; gas + GM + WMT = X, solve for X; lower yields HELP offset 'mediocre' earnings; the Widowmaker's back?

while we slept; yields triangulating; hikes then CUTS priced as f'casts morph

a few SELLSIDE OBSERVATIONS and a couple funDUHmental economic calendars and thoughts for the week ahead

(EZ PMIs weak, 2y Ger set for biggest weekly drop since '08 and SOLID volumes o/n) while we slept; AT&T? "Buying a Bounce in Bonds"; '3 is the magic number'; this is fine

while we slept; Earl DOWN; rate PAIN FROM HIGHER higher 'flation barely begun -Greg Ip; a good 20yr auction

while we slept; "I’m so Bearish, I’m Bullish"; stocks vs bonds (hint stocks ALWAYS win the debate); curves / spreads in different inflation regimes; "Declining liquidity in the Treasury market"

USTs 'aggressively mixed', outperforming BUNDS ... while we slept; China SOLD. Again (who bought?); 60/40 still NOT DEAD; animal spirits say ...

while we slept; Timiraos + Goldilocks = 75bps hike; WFC disagrees; loan growth to slow; got20s?

Timiraos speaks, GS approves (75bps done deal); Recession vs. Inflation; another thing(s) from Global Wall Streets wiz kids on sellside

sellside observations; 60/40 not dead (yet, again); LUDICROUS speed! the bond market in historical context (1994, 2003); QT = 'X', FRBAtlanta solves for 'X'; and a couple economic calendars ...

while we slept; China GDP weak; US rates f'cast REVISIONS; cross-asset proxy SAYS (yields gonna drop); 10yy 'threatening a "head and shoulders" top, but...'

while we slept; JPM profits DOWN, Dimon cautious; 100bps now, 3 cuts next year? and finally, the moment we've been waiting for (HIMCO dropped, maybe NOT what you'd expect)

while we slept; deflation; 5sGREENS; IS this time different (than '94)? Dallas Fed says YES; Bill Gross SAYS; JGBs broken

while we slept; NFIB details 'severe decline'; 'Summer (Il)liquidity'; pro equities (strategically)BUT underweight in short run -BlackRock

while we slept; 2nd or 3rd inning; the slowdown we need helping forward inflation expectations down; USDs rate of change should be of (earnings) concern

NFP recap: bad ≠ good (despite the 'print'); sellside observations and a couple economic calendars ...

while we slept; the Fed's preferred curve; "Tokyo TINA"

while we slept; THE quote heard 'round the world; current and previous yield peaks; 'the most important chart in macro'

while we slept; sings of USTs cracking; BREAK'in up the MOVE; summer's a gRIND; curve on recession watch

while we slept -- 5yy --most interesting chart; 'moment of truth, or denial?'; glass half empty; stocks vs bonds, worst H1 on record ... CONFIRMED (can we move on, now?)

And another thing … recession, how much EASING, ISM and GDP (prolly nuthin’…)

a few sellside observations (bonds worst year since 1865? cost of hedging move lower in USTs is UP) as well as a couple economic calendars and...

while we slept; TINA? ECB say WHAT? welcome TO the recession? so many questions, so few answers; "US5YR heading lower"

while we slept; SPX better than 1930s; MARG; CMDI

while we slept; German inflation falls; the best early recession indicator; (BULLards)lessons from '74 & '83

while we slept; inflation surprise; cyclical spending; fallin' rates - bullish or bearish? bullwhip effect

sellside observations and a couple economic calendars to help prepare for the week ahead

bad news is good, right? PMI by S&P Global

while we slept; bonds leading stocks; bear market rallies a trap? what about TED; 10s/bunds; Dow Theory indices; Dr. Copper (and his sidekick GOLD )

while we slept; PIMCO SAYS; BLK on fincon, 'tightening fast'; worst year on record (so far)

while we slept; 5yy 'deeply oversold'; Goldilocks on recessions and central banker 'PUTS'; MS sticking -- 3k S&P

sellside observations and a couple economic calendars to help prepare for the week ahead

while we slept; bond mkt meltdowns and the BoJ (next?); positions; 'The cracks are widening in the credit market....'; Fed's binary choice (?)

while we slept; 'Getting the price of oil down is really the whole ballgame here...'; Bonds > Stocks, No-Growth Q2, Fund Flows -DataTrek; a 'memo' from inside the Fed?

ECB statement after the ad hoc (aka emergency) meeting

while we slept; China data BEATS; JGB futures collapse; ECB calls unsked meeting; TLINES, updated (reduced bearish)calls and a L/T look at PEs; Trolls and surprises

while we slept; 3mo TBILL auction tail? short YES but not short enough (block mania!)

while we slept (UST volume ran ~275% of the avg); misery loves company; how much DEFLATION? no hidin' from bad news ...

10yy pricing in too much now? maybe so, says one stock-jockey; MARG

sellside observations and a couple eco calendars

while we slept; "Its Time" (to watch 5yy); thinking rate CUTS within 3yrs?

while we slept; expect recession probabilities to RISE; Japanese investors net SELLERS of USTs (again); (Dr.)Copper's big break comin'; "Bear Sighting and Safety Tips"

while we slept; world bank warns of that '70s show; OECD cuts; another record (revolving credit); #got10s?

while we slept; RBA goes 50bp; higher rates = 'yield support'; updated GSCPI; "The end of the ultra-low default world?"

while we slept (o/n volumes ~70% avg); soft landings; "Bear Flip" vs the ECB

sellside observations; the hobbit 'Throws Biden Under The Bus...' and an economic calendar or two ...

while we slept (misweighted block FV-TY flatteners?); BRAINard > Warsh + hobbit + Dimon?; 'vanishing <UST> liquidity'; 5yy vs 3.10% (and then...); mtg rates and 'flation

while we slept; economic hurricanes; WARSH > hobbit + Dimon (IMO); investing / trading is hard

while we slept; 20s have fallen and cant get up; happy QT day! USTs overbought? higher yields stronger dollar;

while we slept; WALLER > Bostic; Biden + JPOW + the Hobbit = ?

sellside observations and an economic calendar or two ...

while we slept; spectacular 7yr auction; 1 in 5 home SELLERS DROPPING price (most since Oct '19); inflation expectations DROP; eco surprises NEGATIVE (#WINNING ?); stagflation; Memorial Day...

while we slept; "The Talking 10-Year Treasury" (DataTrek); bond bull TLINE (re)tested;

while we slept; can TLT reverse higher from 'historic' oversold level? have bond yields PEAKED? (see H&S); yesterday's data WILL matter to The Fed

while we slept; SNAPped; 2yr non-comp bids SOAR (#got2s?); hiking during IP slumps rare; 'demand strong but less certain'; (SanFran)Fed on transitory

while we slept (block party continued); curve and swaptions diverge; S&P target reduced and UST volatility persists and INCREASED to levels last spotted in ...

while we slept; JPOW (takes back the narrative) + TGT = ?; swaption vol; peak wage 'flation; bear market (stock)bounces;

while we slept; hindsight is 20/20 -Bernanke; FRED says; STOCKS > bonds -BlackRock; MSI turns positive!!

while we slept; China; no rest for the weary ...

sellside observations; defense (over riskier sectors) WINS GAMES; WHY the CNY matters; (Rosies model) rarerly longer duration; 'bonds still in control'; calendars for week ahead;

while we slept; JPOW SAID; biggest yield drop since 2020; rise against the REALZ

while we slept; from PPT to FRB(Dallas); real wages tumbled; 'Thursday the 12th' and... 'bonds warn of trouble'

while we slept; ROSY; value vs growth vs yields; ...working 'til age 96

while we slept; buy dip? pensions bad year about to get worse? are we there yet? econ dashboards, financial conditions and canaries in the coal mine ...

while we slept; (at)risk parity; Goldilocks; 'the end of an era' (again)

sellside observations; consumer credit; a few charts and an economic calendar or two ahead of Sunday's open...

while we slept; bonds (and stocks)breaking badly;

while we slept; BEARISH hike; worst start for 10y USTs since ... 1788

while we slept; upside convexity strikes back; 'Dreams of a Soft Landing, Fears of Hard Retirement'(party at Club 60-40 OVER); may the 4th be with us all...

while we slept; draft ≠ FINAL; zero point zero; hiking into weakness; look out below; tightening already working

while we slept; 'speculators rushed to cover...'; a few observations from global Wall St

while we slept; NO foreign bid and a seasonally bearish window into month-end; so much for diversification ... 60/40s worst start since '08;

while we slept; BoJ defends Yen 'craters'; GDP

while we slept; Dr Doom WARNS; GDP f'casts come in; eurodollar curve may be right? #got5s?

while we slept; TINAs dead; disaster? #got2s?

while we slept; SHCOMP -5%; global wall street says (a couple MAJOR bond letters and a 'grisly' stock bear)

while we slept; HIMCO breaks silence (shows how 170mil > 20mil); 60/40 slide continues

while we slept; a RECORD; 10yy vs 3.20%

while we slept; UNLIMITED; "Prepare for a hard landing"; from transitory TO this from Liberty St

while we slept, long bonds hit 3.00% and ...

while we slept; 35% chance; yield hunters hunted (March TICS)

sellside observations; China CUTS; Biden reverses; 2s5s (aka THE Bible) on stairway to heaven? balance sheet policy NOT driver of curve and economic calendars

while we slept

while we slept; a couple charts; "The Big $hort"; and 'An Investor's Guide to the Runup to Recession'

while we slept; the 'End of an Era?'; a higher peak

while we slept; IF 10s > 2.66% then 2.81 and 3.00%? the longest (duration supply) short week

while we slept; "Closing Our Underweight in Government Bonds"; getting long

overnight flows; "If Stocks Don't Fall The Fed Needs To Force Them" -Dudley; Japan 'SHEDS $50 bn bonds' in 10wks ...

while we slept; BRAINard; China's "Challenging times"; TLTs "teetering"

while we slept (‘Earls big bull flag’); in money shorts booking some profits; "Still too early to own duration" -Kolanovic; what of the US consumer?

while we slept; Jamie Dimon says...

sellside observations (NFP recaps and victory laps) as 'Wall Street gets bullish...on CASH'; peak yields? '10-Year bearish bets SOAR' (while net 30yy LONGS DOWN) and more positions to know

while we slept; 3mo10yr curve (and math); ‘Worst is yet to come’?

attention 'index huggers' ... it is month and quarters end (3 TLINES) and 4pm is the (not so)new 3pm

while we slept; 'Earl; DEMAND in full force as USTs set for one of the worst returns since 1931, the Civil War and the 1980s;

while we slept; "headlines dominate details"; sentiment GAP signals further inversion; curve "Flashing orange"; 'bonds pain is equities gain' (aka TINA)

bond market seasonals

while we slept; GFSIs 4th largest SPIKE; curve A-version; a couple (more) monthly charts (10yy close to a peak?)

I couldn't resist ... and neither could Will Smith

while we slept; "Do bond markets know more than economists? (no)"; global bond losses this year > all of 1999 (record)

sellside observations, economic calendar (s) and a few things I think I think (one mans trash is another's Treasuries, month/quarter end...) and some charts

while we slept; 'growth OR inflation?'; BoJ FAILS to launch (more bond buying); return of THE widow maker; (bond)bears beware

while we slept; sell stocks buy bonds; who will buy? a rates peak near? updated f'casts and a few charts...

while we slept; 'what a bear market looks like' (BONDS lead stonks, 2s5s); what NEXT -DB; build it and they came (field of bond bull dreams, $TLT)

while we slept; mayhem in bonds; fed policy: "politically prudent OR recession risk?" worst quarter for bonds EVER? 'when necessities become luxuries"

while we slept (degrossing theme); war = growth deflation; high debt NOT economic problem; agree or NOT with Bill (de)GROSS(ing)

sellside (sell 5s on 'fly or buy them? depends WHO you read; its different this time -MS), hikes NOT bad for bond portfolio, positions, BUYBACKs and econ indicators in the week ahead

BULLard dissent in his own words; o/n flattening flows; (3) TLINES worth 1000 words -BAML; buy the dip -JPM; "The Yield Curve Is Inverting. Are You Scared?" and QUAD WITCHIN'...

o/n; vigilantes; 5s10s Fed'version

o/n; Bear sold TO JPM; the day c19 nearly broke mkts

o/n (some sewer tracking...); traders toying with rate CUTS; traded out bond BEARS; stagflation's Top of Mind

o/n; shutting, defaulting and tightening; bond returns now skewed positively? a couple 'bottom lines' as FCI tightens and curve inversion coming; levered bearish bond bets BIGGEST IN YEAR

a few (weekly) observations from the sellside and the economic / rate HIKE week ahead

o/n -- Putin sticksave? 1937 analog; 5y5 fwds; hikes ≠ poor bond returns (a Rareview indeed)

o/n; "...the first European war with a twitter handle..."; haters prepare to 'turn tactically BEARISH' (5s, 10s, and 30s) -- note stops;

o/n and a 'convexity-curve'-'fly' thesis (a different way to bet against vol?)

Nickel? o/n; 30yy (and S&P)triangulating; 'Earl; biz as UNusual

o/n (mixed, little changed, M3Z3, all on light volumes) and some levels...

a few observations from the sellside, MESSage from the curve, 5yr spec short base UP and the economic / FUNduh-mental weak ahead

o/n; financial conditions and FF; commods; haters gonna hate (others adjust positions); unit labor costs ≠ 'flation; supply chain pressures EASE but..

o/n; 2yy; hay met barn; the MARKET is wrong (says haters who continue to hate as 'short profits wiped out'); 'TINA' still prevails; Blutarsky-GDP

o/n (and a chart of 20s on the 'fly); 'The Next Great Unwind'; 2yy and 10yy levels some watchin'

o/n; Zoltan SAYS; some levels to watch; knowns and unknowns

weekly closes; 2s5s 'red alert'; sellside observations and the week ahead (a few)calendar(s) of events

o/n (good long-end buying despite 'still challenging liquidity); shorts being squeezed but no losses yet, they say; Waller; Ali v Liston, Russia v Ukr? and Happy Rubber Ducky Day ... #gotGAS?

o/n; "Ukraine"; slowdown 'we need' (?); updated bond, stock TECHS; 'Free Willy' redux; and USTs OUTPERFORMING peers while 2yr BREAKS, breaking

o/n; mtg apps DROP; BLK likes DM stocks; H&S; widening; financial conditions; sanctions? RUSSIAN FCI 450bps tighter; and a (Stratfor)map of Ukraine

o/n; 2yy vs 1.52%; Miracle on ICE (nat gas edition?); ECB less likely hikely; a couple stock jockeys views ...

(a FEW)sellside observations, listen TO a bond BEAR - Bianco and a bull Gurevich, WATCH Lacy Hunt and consider ReSale Tales this way; weekly econ indicators and SIFMA SAYS...

o/n; TLTs, belly buyable; inflation survivors of the 80s have some advice; 'okay bond bears, not so fast...beware'

while we slept; belly BID; 'Earl DOWN on this tweet; Fed 'accounting primer'; past peak hawkishness...

o/n; mortgage mkt RECORD; Chinese (dis)inflation; world central bank money (and markets); bond market LIQUIDITY bad; watching CREDIT

while we slept; war OFF + bridge OPEN = riskON; TLTs vs 134.45 (2.44%) support; FI techs; retail riskin' UP; FRBSF - rent'flation

overnight; 60/40 back en vogue; KC Fed SAYS SELL to fight the 'flation; BULLard @ 830a

Weekly economic indicators for the week OF Feb 14th - Feb 18th (ReSale TALES on 16th)

Sellside observations (Feb 12th, 2022)

o/n; CPI+BULLard=30bps 2yr candle; charts provide cover to stay short; STOCKS beating bonds; WHEN (not if)the ride ends; Perhaps BoJ can instill calm?

what happened o/n; another f'cast UPDATE (for higher yields, of course); housing party starting to wind down (Shilling), some longer-term charts/CONTEXT

o/n; 10yr charts (ahead of today's liquidity event); a(nother) rates f'cast update; The Plumber; Rosie's Strategizer; Lacy HUNT

NFIB; 3yr liquidity event...

while we slept (sociable sized selling, lack of bids, volumes ~220%!; oil/flation/hikes OH MY; 2yr breaks; technicals...

decent UST volumes, 'while we slept'; stocks and 2s; MMT failed; stock jockey weekly; can we afford high/rising COST of debt?

Weekly economic indicators for the week OF Feb 7th - Feb 11th

Sellside observations (Feb 6th, 2022)

o/n; (Economist)MAGAZINE COVER as indicator? (tech)FI outlook; cross asset cover for higher rates; tactical steepener's risk scenarios; negative yield debt in decline (a positive for FI investors?)

while we slept; macro charts updated & where to SELL bonds into weakness; a case for a tactical (2s10s)steepener; wanna dance (the growth / rates tango)

EZ 'flation'; while we slept; QT and rates impact; equity risk pulse; CapX plans; groundhog's day -- the bad news; BoJo the clown

while we slept (front end 'red headlines'); some monthly context (USTs -1.9% - worst in ~1yr); RBA; 'Earl

o/n was, 'pretty dead' quiet in terms of UST volumes; mkts 'on the edge'; Fed leans hawkish, can earnings be an offset?

Weekly economic indicators for the week OF January 31st - Feb 4th

Sellside observations (Jan 30th, 2022)

ECI disappoints, front-end BID; 'somethin' remarkable'; QE flow-slo-mo-jo monitor

o/n flows to knows; "Digesting a Hawkish Shift"; global trade momo 'in the green...'; curve's call; 'breakin' down credit spreads'

annotated Z3/5 spread

7s stop THRU; post FOMC positions UPDATE; techs and 2s

overnight; inversion alert; multi asset charts/themes; state of current labor market

"This time is different" and positional risks into FOMC

while I slept (-'ive net issuance and BIG WAMmy); Decision Day; cleaner positions (2.0); IMF slashes, warns

cleaner positions into FOMC

bond yields still low 'on value model'

better late than never (2022 rates playbook) and global / biz CYCLE update(s)

while we slept; #got5s? Marko SAID; early morning Reid'cap, QE chart; GS QT/hikes timeline; 'Jeff' trackin' v-conomy and Bernanke circa 2012

2yy ahead of FOMC ...

Forget it (where IT = hikes and QT)

it really IS different this time; positions; technicals

MarkIT SLOWS to 18mo LOWS; Chicago Fed National Activity Index DIPS; BlackRock TRIMS UST UNDERWEIGHT (ie puts hay in barn) ...

Fed and EARL

Futures Tumble On Rising Fed Fears, Geopolitical Tensions -ZH

Stocks SLIDE ... while we slept; a couple / few technically motivated charts; a few additional observations from global Wall St

Weekly economic indicators for the week OF January 24th thru 28th

Sellside observations (Jan 22nd, 2022)

'What's your prediction for the fight, Clubber?'

what happened o/n (a BUND signal?); buy (bond)dip -Schwab; BBB update

Cumulative 2022 Fed, ECB, BoE pricing

Global Yields Confirm -ASC; other FI TECH OUTLOOK -1stBOS; IPO - TIP 50d correlation; short POSITIONS moving OFFSIDES and overnight (ie ASIA) buyin' dip

PBoC; while we slept; 127-00 (1.92) and THEN ...; Poszar; HIMCO

Bond Bull STILL bullish - news at 11, some context (and REALZ back to 1870s); Xi Jinping warns JPOW

Bond Bull Hoisington Sees Inflation ‘Unwind’ Aiding Treasuries

housing, positions, technicals and a (flattening) bias

while we slept (BUNDS > 0.0%); a few BBG views and THE scream

another bad year taking shape this week

TICS: foreign holdings of USTs hit record HIGH IN NOVEMBER; They like US housing market, too (ZeroHedge)

what happened overnight and a few more observations from the sellside

Weekly economic indicators for the week OF January 17th thru 21st

The Devil is in the Details -Sunday Start; Sit Tight, Be Right -DataTrek; $94t World Economy (visual)

Sellside observations (Jan 15th, 2022)

ooof ... but wait, there's LESS (revisions?)

"Overnight Flows"; ReSale TALES; 10s TO 1.52 (Cornerstone MACRO via twtr); The Weekly Fix

Dr. Doooooom blasts JPOW on 'flation

short covering (for now, they say), watch FV vs 119-29

Quantifying QT, some context ...

more overnight flows AND a chart.

while we slept; high rates a low threat...

Positions update and a 'Fed Put' thought

UST rally interruptus

CPI soars, REAL wages thru floor

'Breaks' and CPI seasonality ...

while we slept; base effects are real; fear of higher rates impacting mortgage applications data...

it's different this time

3y1m fwd OIS

"Historically Bad Week" for TIPS, too?

Technicals of rising yields which are, "The Key Market Driver"

How the Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo Facility Works

while we slept (TY 127 PUTs); rent'flation'nation; debt mountain

more fuel for the fire (TY vs 128-20)

GS writes of MORE hikes, QT and THEN Duds writes of Fed needing to get "...a lot more hawkish"

while we slept (and peak 'flation in sight?)

JP and Goldilocks

"Is It Over yet?"

"Wrong data (the aftermath)" -UBS

Until something breaks; a FLY to consider (for the haters)

Weekly economic indicators ...

Sellside observations for week ahead

"Short Positioning Build in Rates"

LIGHT speed behind, what next?

Sleepless in Seattle ... and everywhere else one trades bonds. 2yy LONGS been MISRAble ...

hey ma, look, no hands...

"Special factors in play for December's US employment report"

2022 Global Market Holiday Dates

while we slept (5y5y swaps); stocks vs bonds; a pre NFP tantrum brewing ...

"Th Initial Response to the Inflation Shock of 2021" -BULLard

the latest on global money ... in dispatch form

"From ‘Live’ To ‘Lock’; Real Yields Rattle Stocks"

"Extended Technicals Vs Light Positioning"

While you wait ...

PSA for those under 40 and never witnessed a hawkish Fed ... AND

QT: 1999/2000 OR GFC (2018/19)? Check back in a couple years...

QT: how balance sheet reduction (if/when realized) *SHOULD* lead to a higher term premium ... and what then of 2s10s ...

"Happy new yields, or same old yields?"

"A New Bond Market Conundrum"

while we were asleep (volumes of 342%...), it's different this time, BBG RULE points to more, faster rate hikes and REALZ

10yy 'neckline' SUPP 1.67/705% then 1.775/82% and resistance @ 1.62/61%

"Short Momentum Build"

5yy grinding higher, 30yy back to o/n cheaps ...

ADP

while we slept...UST volumes anywhere between 175% and 202% of some moving avg ...

A few bond mkt closing thoughts...

Why so glum, bond chum ... and tech stocks, too?

Take This Job and Shove It

Small Biz "Employment Watch"

"...worst year of the millenium..."

10yr and 30yy technicals

stock jockeys watching rate techs ...

'while we slept', armchair virologists, higher rate calls (re)AFFIRMED and Jefferson

Byron Wien's "Ten Surprises of 2022"

TLINE support and couple closing thoughts ...

10yr options trade targeting 1.95% by mid-FEB

The First Trading Day of 2022 Is Just Another Day

overnight UST recap(s) and a "weekly warm-up" (on stocks)

Weekly economic indicators; NFP seasonals and (annual) WORLD economic growth to SLOW (from 3.5% to 3.2%) 'in the decade ahead'

Reflation: Endgame

Yogi Berra economics, part II

Happy New Year!