Sitemap - 2022 - The BondBeat
On this day ... THE Fed, the PPT and the Immaculate Reception and...
sellside observations for the week ahead (12/19th) -- "Recessions's Greetings" -TIME (1974)
(USTs modestly BID, flatter on about avg volumes)while WE slept; 'REAL' rates from 1870 - present
(USTs lower and flatter on below avg volumes) while WE slept; irrational exuberance.
(unch on STRONG VOLUMES)while WE slept; the elephant (JPOW) in the room ...
sellside week ahead -- 11/28th and a happy YCC anniversary to us all ...
sellside week ahead - November 28th (with even MORE 2023 darts thrown)
sellside week ahead - November 21st
sellside observations for the week (and year?)ahead
(USTs mixed, light volume, flattening)while WE slept; consumers in 2023; QT; PAUSE and effect;
(UK 'flation; P&G says; mortgage DEMAND DROPPED)while WE slept
(muted volumes)while WE slept; hunt for yield; ODL; TECHNICALS > funDUHmentals (?)
while WE slept; 10s to PEAK (@4.20%, no NOT Elon Musk); $31 trillion dollar distraction;
(what JPM said and BoE DID)while WE slept; fx-hedging, an update; got3s?
sellside observations and the week ahead
(61 happened)while WE slept; GILTS; 'tactically bullish' bonds (and becoming bearish commods)
sellside observations; fundamental calendars and a football score.
while WE slept; Got20s?; get REAL (FedFunds)
while WE slept; a 'textbook' bear market rally (stocks); USTs yield MORE THAN junk bonds
sellside observations on a very solemn day of remembrance ...
while WE slept, overnight flows light; "A Clue From the Two"; a REAL SPIKE
overnight flows light (UK holiday)
sellside reactions to JPOW @ JHOLE
while we slept; hawk-filled skies; "the battle to (FX) the bottom"
while we slept; 20yr in DEMAND; excess savings ≠ demand; seasonals, 50dMA and H&S ...
while we slept; only the shadow (fed funds) knows
while we slept; "Curb Your Enthusiasm on the Good Inflation News"
while we slept; bonds lead TO summer equity BID; August 5th, 2011
while we slept; "Bond Sell-off For The Ages"; stocks GET REALz (in '22); 'team transitory' is back?
while we slept; a lack of liquidity in the bond market; War and Interest Rates -Zoltan
while we slept; bullish BOND seasonals; fed cred = BONDS > stocks
a few sellside observations, the bible, seasonals and a look at the funDUHmental week ahead
while we slept; the FOMCs hawkish hike / dovish presser; bond SEASONALS
while we slept; TINA no more; Recession Monitor (vs Coincident Index); a Major Bond Letter
while we slept; yields triangulating; hikes then CUTS priced as f'casts morph
while we slept; Timiraos + Goldilocks = 75bps hike; WFC disagrees; loan growth to slow; got20s?
while we slept; the Fed's preferred curve; "Tokyo TINA"
And another thing … recession, how much EASING, ISM and GDP (prolly nuthin’…)
while we slept; SPX better than 1930s; MARG; CMDI
sellside observations and a couple economic calendars to help prepare for the week ahead
bad news is good, right? PMI by S&P Global
while we slept; PIMCO SAYS; BLK on fincon, 'tightening fast'; worst year on record (so far)
sellside observations and a couple economic calendars to help prepare for the week ahead
ECB statement after the ad hoc (aka emergency) meeting
while we slept; 3mo TBILL auction tail? short YES but not short enough (block mania!)
10yy pricing in too much now? maybe so, says one stock-jockey; MARG
sellside observations and a couple eco calendars
while we slept; "Its Time" (to watch 5yy); thinking rate CUTS within 3yrs?
while we slept (o/n volumes ~70% avg); soft landings; "Bear Flip" vs the ECB
while we slept; economic hurricanes; WARSH > hobbit + Dimon (IMO); investing / trading is hard
while we slept; WALLER > Bostic; Biden + JPOW + the Hobbit = ?
sellside observations and an economic calendar or two ...
while we slept; "The Talking 10-Year Treasury" (DataTrek); bond bull TLINE (re)tested;
while we slept; China; no rest for the weary ...
while we slept; JPOW SAID; biggest yield drop since 2020; rise against the REALZ
while we slept; ROSY; value vs growth vs yields; ...working 'til age 96
while we slept; (at)risk parity; Goldilocks; 'the end of an era' (again)
while we slept; bonds (and stocks)breaking badly;
while we slept; BEARISH hike; worst start for 10y USTs since ... 1788
while we slept; 'speculators rushed to cover...'; a few observations from global Wall St
while we slept; BoJ defends Yen 'craters'; GDP
while we slept; Dr Doom WARNS; GDP f'casts come in; eurodollar curve may be right? #got5s?
while we slept; TINAs dead; disaster? #got2s?
while we slept; HIMCO breaks silence (shows how 170mil > 20mil); 60/40 slide continues
while we slept; a RECORD; 10yy vs 3.20%
while we slept; UNLIMITED; "Prepare for a hard landing"; from transitory TO this from Liberty St
while we slept, long bonds hit 3.00% and ...
while we slept; 35% chance; yield hunters hunted (March TICS)
while we slept; the 'End of an Era?'; a higher peak
while we slept; IF 10s > 2.66% then 2.81 and 3.00%? the longest (duration supply) short week
while we slept; "Closing Our Underweight in Government Bonds"; getting long
while we slept; BRAINard; China's "Challenging times"; TLTs "teetering"
while we slept; Jamie Dimon says...
while we slept; 3mo10yr curve (and math); ‘Worst is yet to come’?
attention 'index huggers' ... it is month and quarters end (3 TLINES) and 4pm is the (not so)new 3pm
I couldn't resist ... and neither could Will Smith
o/n; vigilantes; 5s10s Fed'version
o/n; Bear sold TO JPM; the day c19 nearly broke mkts
a few (weekly) observations from the sellside and the economic / rate HIKE week ahead
o/n -- Putin sticksave? 1937 analog; 5y5 fwds; hikes ≠ poor bond returns (a Rareview indeed)
o/n and a 'convexity-curve'-'fly' thesis (a different way to bet against vol?)
Nickel? o/n; 30yy (and S&P)triangulating; 'Earl; biz as UNusual
o/n (mixed, little changed, M3Z3, all on light volumes) and some levels...
o/n (and a chart of 20s on the 'fly); 'The Next Great Unwind'; 2yy and 10yy levels some watchin'
o/n; Zoltan SAYS; some levels to watch; knowns and unknowns
overnight; 60/40 back en vogue; KC Fed SAYS SELL to fight the 'flation; BULLard @ 830a
Weekly economic indicators for the week OF Feb 14th - Feb 18th (ReSale TALES on 16th)
Sellside observations (Feb 12th, 2022)
Weekly economic indicators for the week OF Feb 7th - Feb 11th
Sellside observations (Feb 6th, 2022)
Weekly economic indicators for the week OF January 31st - Feb 4th
Sellside observations (Jan 30th, 2022)
ECI disappoints, front-end BID; 'somethin' remarkable'; QE flow-slo-mo-jo monitor
7s stop THRU; post FOMC positions UPDATE; techs and 2s
overnight; inversion alert; multi asset charts/themes; state of current labor market
"This time is different" and positional risks into FOMC
bond yields still low 'on value model'
better late than never (2022 rates playbook) and global / biz CYCLE update(s)
Forget it (where IT = hikes and QT)
it really IS different this time; positions; technicals
Futures Tumble On Rising Fed Fears, Geopolitical Tensions -ZH
Weekly economic indicators for the week OF January 24th thru 28th
Sellside observations (Jan 22nd, 2022)
'What's your prediction for the fight, Clubber?'
what happened o/n (a BUND signal?); buy (bond)dip -Schwab; BBB update
Cumulative 2022 Fed, ECB, BoE pricing
PBoC; while we slept; 127-00 (1.92) and THEN ...; Poszar; HIMCO
Bond Bull STILL bullish - news at 11, some context (and REALZ back to 1870s); Xi Jinping warns JPOW
Bond Bull Hoisington Sees Inflation ‘Unwind’ Aiding Treasuries
housing, positions, technicals and a (flattening) bias
while we slept (BUNDS > 0.0%); a few BBG views and THE scream
another bad year taking shape this week
what happened overnight and a few more observations from the sellside
Weekly economic indicators for the week OF January 17th thru 21st
Sellside observations (Jan 15th, 2022)
ooof ... but wait, there's LESS (revisions?)
"Overnight Flows"; ReSale TALES; 10s TO 1.52 (Cornerstone MACRO via twtr); The Weekly Fix
Dr. Doooooom blasts JPOW on 'flation
short covering (for now, they say), watch FV vs 119-29
Quantifying QT, some context ...
more overnight flows AND a chart.
while we slept; high rates a low threat...
Positions update and a 'Fed Put' thought
CPI soars, REAL wages thru floor
'Breaks' and CPI seasonality ...
while we slept; base effects are real; fear of higher rates impacting mortgage applications data...
"Historically Bad Week" for TIPS, too?
Technicals of rising yields which are, "The Key Market Driver"
How the Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo Facility Works
while we slept (TY 127 PUTs); rent'flation'nation; debt mountain
more fuel for the fire (TY vs 128-20)
GS writes of MORE hikes, QT and THEN Duds writes of Fed needing to get "...a lot more hawkish"
while we slept (and peak 'flation in sight?)
"Wrong data (the aftermath)" -UBS
Until something breaks; a FLY to consider (for the haters)
Weekly economic indicators ...
Sellside observations for week ahead
"Short Positioning Build in Rates"
LIGHT speed behind, what next?
Sleepless in Seattle ... and everywhere else one trades bonds. 2yy LONGS been MISRAble ...
"Special factors in play for December's US employment report"
2022 Global Market Holiday Dates
while we slept (5y5y swaps); stocks vs bonds; a pre NFP tantrum brewing ...
"Th Initial Response to the Inflation Shock of 2021" -BULLard
the latest on global money ... in dispatch form
"From ‘Live’ To ‘Lock’; Real Yields Rattle Stocks"
"Extended Technicals Vs Light Positioning"
PSA for those under 40 and never witnessed a hawkish Fed ... AND
QT: 1999/2000 OR GFC (2018/19)? Check back in a couple years...
"Happy new yields, or same old yields?"
10yy 'neckline' SUPP 1.67/705% then 1.775/82% and resistance @ 1.62/61%
5yy grinding higher, 30yy back to o/n cheaps ...
while we slept...UST volumes anywhere between 175% and 202% of some moving avg ...
A few bond mkt closing thoughts...
Why so glum, bond chum ... and tech stocks, too?
"...worst year of the millenium..."
stock jockeys watching rate techs ...
'while we slept', armchair virologists, higher rate calls (re)AFFIRMED and Jefferson
Byron Wien's "Ten Surprises of 2022"
TLINE support and couple closing thoughts ...
10yr options trade targeting 1.95% by mid-FEB
The First Trading Day of 2022 Is Just Another Day