Good morning / afternoon and good night where ever you are.
Lots of driving, football and a weekend that is all but done and it is with this in mind and my time being almost as limited as yours, I’ll cut to the chase.
HERE are just a few observations from Global Wall Street’s inbox which I continue to maintain and will do so as long as I’m privy to the narrative recon…
A few OTHER observations caught my eyes from the world wide web-itude, a tweetfrom a former money manager with the BeachBoys
Everywhere markets are in retreat. But the US stands out as it appears most closely correlated with the decline in the global money supply
Still waiting for HIMCOs quarterly — do NOT forget video of Danielle DiMartino Booth LAST WEEKEND (HERE) as well as an excerpt of her interview with him (HERE), I’d highly recommend this from a ‘brilliant young economist’, Eric Basmajian,
Employment growth is cooling but still above trend.
The jobs report did not change any economic trends but was "good enough" for the Fed to keep raising rates.
The market expects the Fed Funds rate to be 4.6% by March 2023.
More rate hikes + more growth slowing = more downside for assets.
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, EPB Macro Research. Learn More »
… The employment report is so broad, it can be hard to boil all the information down into one easy-to-understand chart. Everyone tries to do that by quoting one number, the monthly change of nonfarm payrolls, but that is not sufficient.
I created a coincident index with five components that provide a much broader and more comprehensive view of the employment situation with data including the number of jobs, the number of hours worked, and the unemployment rate.
Our coincident index of employment is showing declining growth but levels of growth that are still comfortably above trend and well above zero.
The Federal Reserve will therefore continue raising interest rates because their dual mandate is employment and inflation and the most recent coincident data for employment shows the first part of the mandate is not yet at risk.
Now, coincident data doesn't tell us where the trend is heading, it only defines the trend as it stands today.
Our leading index of employment is showing a worsening trend which means the downward momentum we are seeing in coincident employment growth will continue.
Our coincident measure of employment growth is declining but is above trend and above zero.
Our leading index of employment growth is declining, below trend, and flirting with the negative territory.
And there’s more. I’d highly recommend a point and click … again, as the wait for HIMCOs latest quarterly drags on …
Moving on then TO the week ahead AND for any / all (still)interested in trying to plan your trades and trade your plans in / around FUNduhMENTALs, here are a couple economic calendars and LINKS I used when I was closer to and IN ‘the game’.
First, this from the best in the strategy biz is a LINKthru TO this calendar,
After a tough road loss in DC the WPI engineers will get a bye week to regroup and hopefully finish out their season strong. Meanwhile, the Manalapan BRAVES also had their fare share of challenges earlier today, losing at home to a very good team.
Hey, at least our NYG won!
Not barely a consolation prize but boys (Thing 1, 3) will get back to work this week and look to come back stronger and better off for their next opponents.
And speaking of opponents, as NYY await their next series, this will not ever get old
THAT is all for now. Enjoy whatever is left of YOUR weekend …
thank you for heads up. I've just corrected the link and appreciate that...