sellside reacts TO NFP (and a few other items of interest...dip being bought as shorts XTEND and commods peaking?)
Good afternoon and please pardon the interruption of your college football and long weekend festivities.
Here’s a weekly look at 10yy suggests we’re at / near a couple levels worth noting … I’ve attempted to highlight them best I can with my now much more limited resources
Watching 3.20 (2018 cheaps) and 3.48 as we approach oversold levels … For somewhat MORE on who’s doing WHAT, kindly see this weekends SELLSIDE OBSERVATIONS and note a (NOT)boston based BUYER of the dip (in both 10s and bonds).
This may work out, too, as a sort of PAIN TRADE mechanism as a large German operation details how Treasury shorts have now extended BEYOND Nov 2020 level to a new 4y HIGH
You’ll ALSO note plenty of JOBS narratives on this weekends SELLSIDE OBSERVATIONS … The economic inkblot test was given and everyone saw what it was they wanted and after about 10mins, all LEFT TOWN for the final ‘hamptons hedge’ of the season.
Jobs aside (more in a moment), who KNEW the surprise would be from GAZPROM? THIS via ZH
Surprise: Stocks Tumble After Gazprom "Completely Halts" Nord Stream Gas Supplies Due To "Unexpected" Leak
After a 3-day halt, Russian energy giant Gazprom was expected to resume critical supplies of nat gas to Europe via Nord Stream 1 tomorrow, but it appears that Putin who is enjoying the game of cat and mouse a little too much, had other plans and as a result, Russian gas flows toward Europe won't be coming back any time soon, as moments ago Gazprom announced that it had "completely halted" transport of gas to Nord Stream until a previously undetected oil leakage is rectified…
Oh crap.
So, then back TO THIS WEEKENDS OBSERVATIONS from the sellside. Global Wall St inbox remains alive and well, filling to the brim constantly with narratives and reactions / reflexing TO the GOOD, great, terribly bad <insert adjective here based on your own P&L> jobs report.
There is plenty of concern about liquidity in the UST market as evidenced by this visual from a large ‘ish (and quite exclusive) French operation,
Much of this concern IS related to the taper which kicks in bigly … This increasing concern (and decreasing liquidity) will bring about INCREASE of bond vol (aka the MOVE), shown here:
Back TO the jobs market for just a moment and sorry NOT SORRY if too political. It’s also too funny NOT to point out yesterday’s fun fact — did you know ten thousand million jobs created … well, THAT right there’s a LOT of jobs!
Fastest in history, indeed. If ONLY it were true? Now, for somewhat more, ZH
Full-Time Employment Collapses As Multiple Jobholders Hit New All Time High
… And even more remarkable: the number of multiple jobholders whose primary and secondary jobs are both full-time just hit another record high! Hardly the sign of a strong job market, one where people can afford to quit jobs at will.
So what's going on here? The simple answer: Fewer people working, but more people working more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey…
Moving along … HERE is a chart you won’t find on this weekends sellside observations (where you’ll wanna note some 10yr and 30yr BUYERS OF DIPS — 1stBOS now tactically BULLISH) and THIS chart from Chris Kimble of commods peaking, limiting the ‘flation, could actually support 1stBos call
Commodities Price Peak Could Limit Inflation
Finally something that doesn’t really fit ANYWHERE but HERE esp on a Saturday with COLLEGE FOOTBALL … Speaking of which, I’ll leave THIS HERE, noting that if WPI is gonna win ‘em all, they had to start with their first one last night … and they did!!
The Economics of College Football
New Frontiers Emerge in the Landscape of College FootballThe off-season provided plenty of drama for the upcoming college football season as the University of Southern California and UCLA made the shocking decision to leave the Pac-12 for the Big Ten. The movement of teams from one conference to another is almost entirely being driven by economics, specifically the large payouts from lucrative television contracts. Those lucrative contracts are necessary to continue to attract the best recruits, the supply of which is becoming increasingly thinner, particularly in the West and Midwest. We preview the upcoming season and explore the drivers changing the landscape of college football in this report.
AND for any / all (still)interested in trying to plan your trades and trade your plans in / around FUNduhMENTALs, here are a couple economic calendars and LINKS I used when I was closer to and IN ‘the game’.
First, this from the best in the strategy biz is a LINK thru TO this calendar,
Wells FARGOs version, if you prefer …
… and lets NOT forget EconOday links (among the best available and most useful IMO), GLOBALLY HERE and as far as US domestically (only) HERE …
Ending on a high note, HERE are the Cagle Post’s top 10 Student Loan Relief Toons
… THAT is all for now. Off to enjoy the remainder of the LONG weekend … More football (14u) tomorrow!