NFP recap: bad ≠ good (despite the 'print'); sellside observations and a couple economic calendars ...
Good morning. Breakfast with Wimbledon still going on and I’m off to watch and do chores ‘round the house after a day on the golf course yesterday with a couple OLD friends.
I’ve cobbled together some of the popular kids narratives (ie sellside observations) for you HERE. You’ll find plenty of NFP recaps and victory laps (cuz, you know, they told us so) as well as a handful of IDEAS (BMOs buying supply dip should one materialize in the days just ahead, taking 10yy up TO 3.25, for example). You’ll also find some updated thoughts on STOCKS from MSs Mike Wilson who’s watching USD strength closely (along with everyone else!).
There’s plenty of updated stuff INCLUDING latest Chart of Interest from EPBMacro — The Employment Report In One Chart.
Think about it.
Noted it as we CONTINUE to wait for HIMCOs latest quarterly to drop — do yourself a favor and check out his views, process and follow him on twitter and subscribe for his updated thoughts). along with some things from prior weekends for reference SHOULD you need any assistance nodding off at the beach/pool/on the lake!
Now, as far as that NFP, eh? Bad ≠ good (despite the 'print'). ZH,
Wall Street Stunned As June Payrolls Unexpectedly Smash Expectations
For somewhat less stunned, dare I say pragmatic view of the data point, @businesscycle tweeted
Both nonfarm and household job growth (yoy) is EASING. Down to seven- and six-month low, respectively.
For another / different perspective, another TWEET from an even bigger thinker, @EPBResearch
Weekly hours growth in the manufacturing sector fell to -2.1%.
Lowest since June 2020.
Total employment growth is 3.9%, so not recessionary, but the leading data is moving down hard.
And then there was the insta-reflex
But then, as the data dust settled, ZH noted some of the nuance ahead of the weekend,
Something Snaps In The US Labor Market: Full, Part-Time Workers Plunge As Multiple Jobholders Soar
… AND finally, for any / all (still)interested in trying to plan your trades and trade your plans in / around FUNduhMENTALs, here are a couple economic calendars and LINKS I used when I was closer to and IN ‘the game’.
First, this from the best in the strategy biz is a LINK thru TO this calendar,
Wells FARGOs version, if you prefer …
… and lets NOT forget EconOday links (among the best available and most useful IMO), GLOBALLY HERE and as far as US domestically (only) HERE …
Finally, whether or not NFP was good or bad and despite what you think you think, and that your P&L and positions are still based on the narratives you are buying into, there are things being discussed ‘above’ … for example,
… THAT is all for now. Off to the remainder of our weekend and all the chores NOT done while out with friends / family golfing yesterday!! Got to get ‘em done before Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN!!
Yet another free calendar with lots of filters you can tweak at
https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar
Go to the "Impact *" button and select the 2-star setting.
Go to the "Countries" button and select/deselect your Motherland/Fatherland/Whateverland. As Melania would say "I don't care."
Go to the "Date" button and do whatever comes naturally.
For July 15, 2022 I tested it with 2-Impact stars, just the USA, and the appropriate time frame and it reproduced the "FICC" calendar entries. My test sample size of one is free. Sample size of two will cost you.
Covers every country with an economy. What about North Korea? IDK look for yourself ;)
The charts have light-gray text indicating the data source and usually are hyperlinked to or close to the provider.
Muck about with chart settings and you may agree it is pretty good for free.