sellside observations (NFP recaps and victory laps) as 'Wall Street gets bullish...on CASH'; peak yields? '10-Year bearish bets SOAR' (while net 30yy LONGS DOWN) and more positions to know

Good morning.

Spring has sprung, or so they say … at least on paper.

With that comes the yard/garage clean up and organization as well as some work on the fleet of automobiles (‘07 CRV wiper blades and the ‘14 Pathfinder headlamps REPLACED — YouTube really IS great) …

I’ve cobbled together some reading material to think about as I lie here in traction … and wanted to share.

Given the week that just passed and monthly / quarterly closes, I thought a few visuals from 1stBOS (on this weekend’s Sellside Observations) might help get thought process started and are in addition TO the monthly visuals (3 TLINES) offered HERE

The firm goes ON to show how / why

5yr US Bond Yields are closest to peaking in our view and are likely to move into a range around current levels…

I’d highly recommend checking them out along WITH everything else you’ll find on this weekends Sellside Observations — narratives from across the globe and different walks of (market)lives — some of the best and brightest in the business …

Thing’s I’d highlight,

EPB Macro: Ignore Jobs, Buy Bonds
BAMLs Sell Side Indicator: Wall Street gets bullish…on cash
BAMLs World at a Glance: 10yy f’cast NOW 2.50%
Citi: 3s getting into ‘wicked cheap on curve’ territory and on STEEPENER STOPOUTS
1stBOS Q2 TECHNICAL outlook (visuals above) and latest from ZOLTAN
JPM SAYS: flattening exaggerated by options-based hedging flows AND jacked 10yy target 35bps up TO 2.85%
Albert Edwards: Extraordinary times as the Fed shifts to gaslighting investors

From Edwards as only HE can do — weaving together commentary and visuals from across the wide world web …

Not IN this weekends Sellside Observations but worth a click,

Advisor Perspectives: Gary Shilling: Sell Stocks; A Recession is Coming
Mauldin: Curve Ball

You may or may NOT notice a theme — Fed to tighten — likely LESS than you / we all think (and are pricing) until, inevitably, SOMETHING BREAKS.

In as far as POSITIONS go, you’ll note Citigroup (Sellside Observations above — on STEEPENER STOPOUTS) as well as THIS from INVESTMACRO

10-Year Treasury Bonds Speculator bets surge to 177-week bearish high

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the surge in the 10-Year Bond bets this week. The speculative position in the 10-Year Bond saw a sharp jump in bearish bets this week.

For MORE on positions,

Hedgopia: large 10yy NET spec SHORTS UP 80.6% to HIGHEST SINCE Nov ‘18 while large spec net LONG 30yy DOWN 50.8% to LOWEST SINCE JULY 2019

Finally, a few economic calendars which you may find of interest as you plan and plot your journey through global macro (and MARKETS) in the week ahead,

From the best in the strategy biz is a LINK thru TO this calendar,

And from WELLS to illustrate how little there is to actually look forward to,

… and lets NOT forget EconOday links (among the best available and most useful IMO), GLOBALLY HERE and as far as US domestically (only) HERE …

AND in closing, there’s THIS (Bond Market Flashes Recession Signal As Yield Curve Inverts For First Time Since 2019) from Investing.com

For those of us STILL consumed by the yield curve … and ahead of this evenings Grammy awards,

and

THAT is all for now. Back TO the weekend!!