Weekly economic indicators; NFP seasonals and (annual) WORLD economic growth to SLOW (from 3.5% to 3.2%) 'in the decade ahead'
BMO, DB, JEFF, TradingEconomics and Econoday
Meet the new year. Same as the old … With ca$h U$T market set to open (7p unless there’s a holiday in Tokyo?), I thought I’d help get jump on week ahead.
Here are some (economic data)resources for those bond market degenerates that crave fundamental input as ‘cover’ for their day-to-day knife fight of trading as well as those longer-term thinkers interested in defending duration stance — whatever it may be.
First up is calendar I used to cut / paste into my daily 2pg PDF, back in the day (you recall those days … when long bonds yielded 2.10%),
HIGHLIGHTS for dramatic purpose, mine.
One large German bank offers THEIR view of,
What you need to know for the week ahead
(with special attention TO what happens this coming FRI,
Commentary for Monday: To ring in the new year, the economic calendar shifts back into high gear with plenty of important data releases and Fedspeak, the main focus of which will be Friday’s employment report for December. With the fourweek moving average of initial jobless claims down about 70k from the survey week in November, we expect solid payroll gains for both headline (+375k forecast vs. +210k previously) and private (+300k vs +235k). As we discussed in our November employment chartbook (see “November employment: The Fed thanks you for your participation”), the Fed will want to see the unemployment rate (4.2% vs. 4.2%) continuing to fall, or at minimum remaining stable amidst a rising labor force participation rate. The rise of the omicron variant could put a damper on that though, given that covid is the major factor weighing on participation, particularly for prime age workers (see "Participation primed for a pop or will the pandemic keep parents sidelined?"). That being said, given that the employment report focuses on the early part of the month, the effects of omicron may not fully captured in Friday’s report. In terms of the other aspects of the data, we expect hours to remain steady at 34.8 and another solid monthly gain in average hourly earnings (+0.3% vs. +0.3%)…
In their report, you’ll also find this,
For another sellside (JEFF)calendar which may be of interest,
This one misses the mark, IN MY VIEW, as the ‘economic highlights’ (words to the RIGHT which are avail to you IF permissioned — HERE) are of Initial Jobless Claims. That’s all well and good BUT best I reckon, we’ve got NFP on FRIDAY Jan 7th and it’s not even listed? For the record, they DO offer these words on NFP,
… The highlight of the data calendar this week is the December employment report on Friday. We expect it to show a 530K increase in payrolls. This would be more than double the 210k gain reported for November, which itself is likely to be revised up. Out of the last 10 employment reports, payrolls have been revised up 9 times, and down only once. The average revision has been +98k, and the largest one was +248k (in August). This pattern of revisions, coupled with the fact that the November weakness was out of step with other data points, leads us to believe that it's very likely to be revised up as well.
As for December payrolls, the survey week ended on Dec 18, i.e. too early in the month to be impacted by Omicron. Cases were just beginning to spike in NYC that week, and are more likely to impact January payrolls. We see several reasons for a solid increase in December. Continuing claims fell by 339k between the survey weeks, which was the 6th largest decline of the year and points to a slightly above-average payroll print. (YTD average payroll growth is 467K based on initial prints, and 555K based on revised prints.)
Seasonals are also very favorable in December as adjustment factors will be adding about 200K in order to offset the typical seasonal slowdown in hiring. In contrast, seasonal adjustment factors subtracted 568K in November and 1.03mln in October. When supply is constrained, as it has been this year, seasonals become very important and tend to dampen reported payrolls during seasonal upswings, and vice versa. The last time seasonals were additive to payroll growth was July, and payrolls rose by 1.1mln that month.There is also some evidence suggesting that the labor shortage is easing on margin. For example, the intensity of Google searches related to the "great resignation" has declined notably in the past two months. This also argues for stronger employment growth, as well as some easing in wage pressures. We expect wages to rise by 0.3% m/m in December, in line with the November increase but below the average of the prior 6 months. On y/y basis, wage inflation is likely to slow from 4.8% to 4.1%, but note that base effects will push it back up in Q1.,,
I’d ALSO highly recommend a point / click over TO TRADINGECONOMICS.COM, click CALENDAR then select whichever may be of interest to you.
I also quite like what Econoday has available — GLOBALLY HERE and as far as US domestically (only) HERE …
One more thing — HERE link thru to an annual economic calendar which I’ve printed (card stock) and which sits on my desk (old habits die hard)
With this in mind, good to keep some semblence of CONTEXT and to do that, I might suggest this CoTD from BBG economics the other day
Global Economic Growth Set for 3.2% Pace in Next Decade
In the decade ahead, the world economy is expected to average annual growth of around 3.2%, slightly below the average of 3.5% in the period from 2010-2019, according to Bloomberg Economics. Beneath that headline figure, the situation in major economies will continue to shift: China will still outperform, though with growth on a slowing trajectory as debt, demographics and reduced catch-up space drag. Burdened with aging populations, advanced economies are on a slowing path, with growth in the next decade expected to average 1.6%.
GOOD but throttling back down (mean reverting?) … Nothing without consequence and lower growth will impact stocks, inflation f’casts, Fed HIKE PRICING and oh, yeah, long bond yields, too. For more on that, stay tuned,