Weekly economic indicators for the week OF Feb 14th - Feb 18th (ReSale TALES on 16th)
a few economic calendars to help as you plan your trades and trade your plans...in and around ReSale TALES
Its 6pm and futures are opening up. They’ll give some sort of early lead on how CA$H USTs are going to fair, at least early on before we truly learn all that happened ‘while we slept’. That in mind, here are a few snapshots of what global Wall Street’s SELLSIDE is watching over the next couple weeks…
Links provided if/when available.
First up is calendar I used to cut / paste into my daily 2pg PDF, back in the day (… way back when 30yy were 2.10% … sorry, not sorry and no, it’s apparently NEVER gonna get old, unlike the rest of us…2.10% will now serve as resistance should the long bond ever rally, again — which is NOT on many radar screens now given the week that just passed!)
Here’s what JEF’s watchin,
Then there’s this from Zentner’s MS
Producer Price Index (Tuesday, 8:30am): We forecast headline PPI to increase 0.38%M vs. +0.17%M prior, lowering the y/y from 9.8% to 8.9%. The headline is supported by a pickup in food prices and little change in energy prices. We expect core PPI to rise a lesser 0.29%M vs. +0.37% prior, lowering the y/y from 6.9% to 6.2%.
Retail Sales (Wednesday, 8:30am): Our retail sales tracker points to a flat print in January following a 2.7% decline in December. We expect the Bloomberg definition of the "control" group, which further excludes food services, to decrease 0.1%M (vs. -3.1%M in December), with food services spending expected to increase very slightly after declining 0.8% prior. The largest positive contributor to our retail sales forecast is motor vehicle sales. We expect auto sales increased 8.3%M in January (vs. -0.7%M in December) on the back of very strong reported unit auto sales. Usage and price data point to an increase in sales at gasoline stations of 0.7%M vs. +-0.7% in December. Incorporating these forecasts on top of our expectation for core retail sales points to a 1.8%M increase in headline retail sales in January (vs. -1.9% in December and +0.2% in November). Excluding autos, we look for retail sales to have risen by 0.3%M (vs. -2.3% prior).
… And from Wells (where ReSale TALES takes center stage Wednesday)
… Finally, EconOday links (among the best available and most useful IMO), GLOBALLY HERE and as far as US domestically (only) HERE …
I wanted to get these out ahead of the CA$H markets open @ 7p and best I reckon (keeping THIS LINK handy for global market holidays in 2022…), there aren’t any Japanese holidays impacting USTs ca$h trading this evening SO all eyes / ears on STOCKS and of course, the front-end. Remember that Aha moment (Aha! Interest rates do matter) and also some wisdom from this mornings Sunday Start (NOT found on this weekends Sellside Observations, Rising Inflation, Rising RISKS
… It is hard to argue that risks are not still skewed to the upside. Even if market pricing has not gone too far, before long we will have to confront the risk I noted in the Sunday Start two weeks ago. The amount of hiking needed to bring inflation down will soon approach the amount that stalls the economy.
There you go. The very definition of a 2-handed economist. I don’t KNOW Seth personally but … just … wow! THIS from a former Fed insider and one of the sellsides most popular of popular kids.
And yes, Seth, it’s hard to imagine, indeed. OR, said another way, as I’ll continue to say, NOTHING without a consequence.
Take, for another example(s), the anniversaries I MISSED YESTERDAY
Feb 1999 the BoJ lowered it’s policy rate to ZERO (ie ZIRP 1.0) — FED, Wiki
Known UKNOWNS - Rumsfeld (Wiki)
Hope you had a GREAT weekend and are getting ready to enjoy the big game. Provided war hasn’t broken out, I’d imagine volumes to be on the lighter side until the book’s handed over to UK, but that’s just a guess.
One final thought / recollection and a visual — on this day in 1997 the Dow INDUSTRIALS crossed ABOVE 7000 for the first time
MarketWatch.com HERE
… And how I’ve done in the stonk market ever since …
And THAT’S all for now. Until we learn whatever it was we missed ‘while we slept’ … that’s all for now.