while we slept, long bonds hit 3.00% and ...
Good morning…due to circumstances beyond my control, this mornings update will be brief … and because,
30yy appear to have hit 3.00% overnight.
That is all.
… here is a snapshot OF USTs as of 700a:
… HERE is what another shop says be behind the price action, you know,
WHILE YOU SLEPT
Treasuries are modestly lower and the curve is slightly steeper (again) as overseas colleagues return to their desks with Tsy 30yrs threatening 3.00%. DXY is higher (+0.1%) while front WTI futures are lower (-1.5%). Asian stocks were mixed, EU and UK share markets are all in the red (SX5E -1%, SX5E -0.25%) while ES futures are little changed here at 7:10am. Our overnight US rates flows saw fast$ selling the long-end during a 'subdued' Asian session. By the London crossover, Asian flows ended 2-way in nature with volumes concentrated in 5's and 10's- as traders marked time for further directional clues. Overnight Treasury volume was actually pretty solid (~150% of average) all across the curve with 10's (183%) seeing the highest relative average turnover overnight.…The bond brushfire still burns, 30y bonds are spitting distance from 3% and 10y real yields are less than 6bp from going positive again. Meanwhile, this week's economic calendar is essentialy bare of tier#1 releases. That is, with the assumption that this week's March housing data may tell us more about a market that used to be rather than one that we can expect going forward (see attachments). So we thought we'd celebrate Technicals Tuesday by doing an overview of the medium and/or longer term charts in duration, curves and curvature (butterflies) today. The hope is to offer viewers some sense of present-day trend sustainability and what next stopping points might be for each benchmark featured. So let's roll...
… Treasury 30yrs, monthly: Looks like some catch-up still to do to the front end. Long-term momentum (lower panel) strongly bearish again after 2021's position-cleansing retrace. 13-year bull channel broken and major support remains ~3.46% (2018 move high, measured move objective of move off March '20 low).
… we show BankRate's national average 30yr fixed mortgage rate. Sheesh, spot the trend on this one... No wonder there was a wee bit of hyperbole over the 6-point drop in prospective homebuyer traffic yesterday?
… and for some MORE of the news you can use » IGMs Press Picks for today (19 April) to help weed thru the noise (some of which can be found over here at Finviz).
For somewhat MORE on the continuing upward shift in rates, Barclays:
A shift in tone. The Treasury curve has bear-steepened amid increased uncertainty about how far the Fed is willing to go to contain inflation. This has raised the expected level of long-term rates, as well as the embedded term premium. We are unwinding our long 10y UST recommendation at a loss, as these dynamics may persist.
When times and facts change, oh … never mind. You get the drill. Awaiting to see what BAML says (update to their leaning long 10yy noted over weekend HERE)
While the empty suits at the World Bank hold spring meetings and Mr. Malpass announced a newly minted and lowered GLOBAL growth f’cast, UBSs Paul Donovan discussing the Growth risks versus inflation risks
Also from investing.com,
And with taxes now done, it’s on to internship hunting season,
… THAT is all for now. ‘Til HOISINGTONs Q1 drops and / or we learn whatever it is that happened while we sleep tonigh, I’m bak off to the day job…