sellside observations; China CUTS; Biden reverses; 2s5s (aka THE Bible) on stairway to heaven? balance sheet policy NOT driver of curve and economic calendars
China CUTS RRR ‘to foam the runway for slow-conomy’ (ZH)
Empire State Mfg SOARS. BUT … then there’s the outlook 6mo from now
‘Earl blasting off OR heading back TO $60? Triangulation noted HERE by KIMBLE
There is nothing which takes place, actions made / taken — in life and markets — without consequences.
Elections have consequences and far before Putin’s aggression against Ukraine which then led to full blown war … seemingly not just Ukraine folks but also against global energy consumers (save for China?), Biden’s election came with consequences.
With that in mind, the STUNNING turnabout in response to at least ONE consequence is worth noting as ZH ‘reports’,
Biden Opens More Public Land To Oil & Gas Drilling In Latest Climate-Policy Capitulation
… Already, environmental activists are slamming Biden for his 'recklessness' and for abdicating the Democrats' "climate leadership".
“The Biden administration’s claim that it must hold these lease sales is pure fiction and a reckless failure of climate leadership,” said Randi Spivak, director of the public lands for Center for Biological Diversity. “It’s as if they’re ignoring the horror of firestorms, floods and megadroughts and accepting climate catastrophes as business as usual.”
Meanwhile, everybody else will just be happy to see lower prices at the pump...although it will take months, perhaps years, for the new supply to come on line and have an impact on the US market.
Consequences are real and in effort to maintain some level of positivity here, at least the administration is attempting — just months from midterms which will likely have HISTORIC consequences — to learn from mistakes of their ways.
Awareness is the first step as they say,
“We admitted we were powerless over alcohol – that our lives had become unmanageable.”
That is taken from AA, HERE…
And since we’re on the topic of awareness AND I’m more than unaware of what was the exact motivation behind Thursday’s clubbing of the bond market, well, ZH
"It's A Shitshow Of Illiquidity Everywhere" - Market Mayhem Strikes Ahead Of Long Weekend
One quick glance across your screens today and you would think WW3 actually started or Biden died or some such epochal event... but no. Instead, amid some modest softness in retail sales and surging sentiment, the magnitude of movements in bond yields, bitcoin, big-tech & bank stocks, and the dollar appears to have been driven more by positioning and panic than any fundamentals. As one trader - who has traded for more than one business cycle - put it so eloquently to us on MSG:
"It's a shitshow of illiquidity everywhere... [insert expletive of choice]... and The Fed hasn't even started actually yanking the rug out yet!!!"
Even the much more 'well spoken' Mohamed El-Erian doesn't know what to make of the vol...
I’m current moving to DISCOVERY mode before I can enter opinion / view generating mode and so with THAT in mind, HERE are a few observations from Global Wall St’s inbox … a couple highlights
BAML leaned long 10s (just in a nick of time?) after suggesting 10yy Crossing the Rubicon
CitiFX asks IF, ‘Financial Bible On A Stairway To Heaven?”
JPMs Mike Cembalest’s Eye on the Market: The tide goes out: Growth trade aftermath
MOODYS: Fed Girds for Stagflation
NatWEST: … Chart 2 shows, historically the Fed’s balance sheet activities have done very little to determine the shape of the curve.
UBS joins the PEAK ‘FLATION crowd: Moving past peak inflation
WFCs Animal Spirits Index: Signals Caution
In closing a couple economic calendars and links for any / all still attempting to trade funDUHmental information flows … First, this from the best in the strategy biz is a LINK thru TO this calendar,
And this from Wells
… and lets NOT forget EconOday links (among the best available and most useful IMO), GLOBALLY HERE and as far as US domestically (only) HERE …
And with tax deadline rapidly approaching while most of Boston takes the day off for ‘Patriots Day’ and some take it upon themselves to run 26.2mi including a stretch of what is called ‘Heartbreak Hill’ for good cause, I’m reminded of a few items which have always helped guide ME this time of year,
… THAT is all for now. Back TO the holiday long weekend!!