o/n; "...the first European war with a twitter handle..."; haters prepare to 'turn tactically BEARISH' (5s, 10s, and 30s) -- note stops;
Good morning. On this day back in 2000 NAZ PEAKED @ 5048.62 and, well, yesterday a fitting end to stock trading with AMZN split, I suppose. Also on this more modern day in history (2020), Munchkin convened plunge protection team and if my memory (and goog calendar) serves me correctly,
*S&P 500 RALLIES 4.9% IN BIGGEST SURGE SINCE DECEMBER 2018
INDU +1167pts ...
A couple less-than-optimal liquidity events down and one to go…
Weekly visual showing a nearly middle-range (2.50-2.10) yield with slight bearish (re)lean of momentum…Lets continue to watch this afternoons supply (and now, lack of FED POMO demand) in context of weekly closes before jumping to conclusions.
HERE are some early pre-auction thoughts from a large German institution noting
Meanwhile, it appears talks are falling apart and yields are MIXED ahead of ‘flation data …
CNBC: Ukraine foreign minister says Russian officials ‘live in their own reality’ after talks fail AND Treasury yields are MIXED ahead of inflation data
as far as what happened from US money center bank — you know who …
Treasuries are modestly higher and the curve a touch flatter as markets await CPI, the ECB and new Treasury 30-year supply amid a return of risk-off conditions. DXY is higher (+0.2%) while front WTI futures have rebounded (+4.3%) after yesterday's sharp reversal. Asian stocks were smartly higher in a catch-up move but EU and UK share markets are notably lower (SX5E -3.2%, SX7E -3.75%) while ES futures are showing -1% here at 7am. Our overnight US rates flows saw 'good' real$ buying in the front end out to intermediates during the largely sideways Asian session trade. Overnight Treasury volume was pretty solid at ~155% of average with 30yrs (188%) seeing the highest relative turnover ahead of today's Tsy auction in the same.
… Our first attachment updates the Treasury 20+ year Treasury ETF, TLT's. Roughly a month ago we pointed out that TLT's were fast-approaching potentially important range support near 134.45. On February 16th we got within a nickel of that range support before TLT's smartly rebounded. Well, we're heading back down there again and all tactical signals (for what little they may be worth) point to a looming test of this support sometime soon. And if/when TLT's take 134.45 out with a close, we'd view such an event as opening the door for UST 30yrs to test their potentially important, multi-year range support/pivot near 2.44%. This level was the pre-pandemic 30y rate range high and also the weekly closing highs seen roughly a year ago. So we assume a 'barrier of demand' will emerge there again, if conditions allow.
… and for some MORE of the news you can use » IGMs Press Picks for today (10 March) to help weed thru the noise (some of which can be found over here at Finviz).
A few other items // LINKS // which may be of interest and assistance this morning.
1stBOS technicals HERE: turning tactically BEARISH @ resistance (5s @ 1.61%, 10s @ 1.775% and bonds @ 2.12%)) — keep your sales people / trading assistants close and keep your stops (detailed HERE) closer
AllStarCharts: Rates (TNX)Hold the Line
After ‘Earls clubbing, Chris Kimble: Could Peak Oil Be Happening Right Now?
And UBS econ dept,
Markets paused in their downward spiral about the war to reassess the economic consequences— however briefly. The first European war with a Twitter handle has made the horrors of war more visible and more emotional than in the past. It does not mean that the economic consequences are worse than in the past. Volatility is likely to remain as investors experience the war through this more intimate form of media…
…US February consumer price inflation data is largely of a pre-war vintage. There is potentially some interesting information in the detail. Some areas of the economy have experienced softening consumer demand—will that affect the pricing? Remember core inflation data does still include food and energy prices embedded in other prices (e.g. airfares are part of core inflation, but affected by fuel costs).
… that’s all for now. Off to the day job…