HERE are some observations from the sellside I’ve cobbled together as we collectively noodle over the 75bps hike just done as well as whatever one thinks comes NEXT (September). These observations from the sellsideare all date / time stamped and should be clickable (if you’ve got access).
I’ve attempted to bring forward a couple / few of the excerpts which, over the years, I’ve found most important to those in a RATES seat.
As always, your inner macro-tourist and tech-A-mentalist will find all sorts of tidbits and visuals which I HOPE will make you stop and think for a moment as you are planning your trades and trading your plans into the week ahead.
Again, these are examples of things hitting Global Wall Streets inbox which, in my former life, I’d note as they would help define the questions to ask as one develops / supports a narrative here and there.
Think RECESSION — watching earnings trajectory? Trading 10s, what is your view on TECH?
You’ll ALSO FIND things about what is coming next in global macro where, in this weekends Sunday Start is a note titled, The Coming Capital Crunch. MS believes,
… In our view, market participants have yet to fully appreciate the challenges from the regulatory capital pressures on banks, particularly large-cap banks. These challenges are unlikely to dissipate within the next 2-3 quarters and add to the many other uncertainties markets are facing. If there is a silver lining, it is that, longer term, there may be better holders of the RWAs – entities that do not have the same capital pressures (e.g., sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and certain non-US banks) and may find these assets attractive additions to their portfolios.
The firms weekly global macro note title is one I simply cannot tolerate. “‘Bad is Good’ is Back’” and while I cannot stand it, my view doesn’t matter. IF markets are going to trade as such, then, one / all entitled, should read Hornbach & Co. They do a better-than-avg job as always and this weekend preparing for UST supply suggests we be on alert for what they see as a,
… view for a disproportionate cut to 20y new issue and re-openings is informed by the 20y sector’s continued underperformance on the curve, measured by the 10s20s30s butterfly (see Exhibit 23). The $4bn cut to 20y new issue and re-openings is simply a return to the max pace for this sector, delivered at the February 2022 and November 2021 refunding meetings. Despite the persistent underperformance in the 20y sector, a larger cut risks an impediment to trading volumes and could also signal concern to the market.
#got20s?
There’s more. MUCH, much more … AND for any / all (still)interested in trying to plan your trades and trade your plans in / around FUNduhMENTALs, here are a couple economic calendars and LINKS I used when I was closer to and IN ‘the game’.
First, this from the best in the strategy biz is a LINKthru TO this calendar,
Finally, if you look up INFLATION ADJUSTED EARNINGS in the fintwit dictionary (which I’m fairly confident doesn’t exist), I believe you’ll find this visual (courtesy of Dr. Robert W Malone’s substack and Sunday Strip)
You’ll ALSO find
… THAT is all for now … Enjoy what is left of the weekend.
