The BondBeat

while WE slept: USTs bull flatten; NO cuts in 25 (BNP), "And so it begins?" (UBS on tarif’lation), #Got2s?

while WE slept: "USTs retain a modest bear-steepening bias..."; 5s vs 4.00% (aka 'non shall pass'); 60/40 'A 150-Year Markets Stress Test'

weekly observations (07.14.25): "What if?" (DB, ING); "...You will not see me getting in the lifeboat.” -JPOW

while WE slept: USTs cheaper/steeper; '“Bond fund” received more US search than “tech stock”' (DataTREK); bond vol (MOVE) 3y low! Oh Canada! Stablecoin = UST demand; XL slurpee demand (JPOW)

while WE slept: USTs 'creeping' o/n bid ran into wall; S&P upgrade w/note on STOCKS > bonds, and 5000yrs of rates (BAML); daily 'evening stars' formed (CitiFX)

while WE slept: USTs marginally bid, calm; "Do near record low US dividends matter?" (yes -DB); global fiscal follies; 'Shut up, Dan' ...

while WE slept: USTs cheaper (tariffs); 10s approx 225yr avg since (~4.50% since 1800 -DB); mkts disconnected (Apollo)

and another thing(s): 'More room to go' (BLK); Fed to remain on hold (BNP); investors buying (approaching 'the fence', ie NEUTRAL -DB); dollar down, 'flation UP

weekly observations (07.07.25): NFP recaps / victory laps; Global Wall remains bullish, Goldilocks lowers yld f'cast (marks to mkt)

while WE slept: USTs firm; NFP precaps followed by victory laps; 12m MA 2yy on NFP days:'outsized moves' on print ...

while WE slept: "fixed in the red"; 2s testing key support (CitiFX); "buyer strike on US assets continues" (DB); NAZ (not a)bubble indicator (DataTrek); USTs longs build & Hindsight Cap (BBG)

while WE slept: Rates are BID, vote-A-rama continues; Monthly, quarterly performance; NFP precap & Swiss out with updated (and lowered) 10yr rate guess