while WE slept: USTs higher, belly bid (F2Q) on STRONG (~250%) volumes; #HIMCO Q1 2024
thebondbeat.substack.com
<Good> morning … Today is the day. If I missed this and it is old news, well, sorry … Name THIS tune …. … The contractionary effects of monetary policy and the de-facto negative NNS policy stance of fiscal policy will serve to place increasing downward pressure on inflation and growth. A sharp 7% rate of decline in vehicle sales In the first quarter is a sign that the deflationary trend in big ticket consumer goods prices is more likely to gather speed than reverse. The inflation rate will likely undershoot the Fed's target, and the unemployment rate will move higher than anticipated by the Fed. Inflation and unemployment are lagging indicators, and much of their cyclicality occurs after, not before, recessions end. This declining inflation environment will continue to bring down inflationary expectations and long-term Treasury bond yields.
while WE slept: USTs higher, belly bid (F2Q) on STRONG (~250%) volumes; #HIMCO Q1 2024
while WE slept: USTs higher, belly bid (F2Q…
while WE slept: USTs higher, belly bid (F2Q) on STRONG (~250%) volumes; #HIMCO Q1 2024
<Good> morning … Today is the day. If I missed this and it is old news, well, sorry … Name THIS tune …. … The contractionary effects of monetary policy and the de-facto negative NNS policy stance of fiscal policy will serve to place increasing downward pressure on inflation and growth. A sharp 7% rate of decline in vehicle sales In the first quarter is a sign that the deflationary trend in big ticket consumer goods prices is more likely to gather speed than reverse. The inflation rate will likely undershoot the Fed's target, and the unemployment rate will move higher than anticipated by the Fed. Inflation and unemployment are lagging indicators, and much of their cyclicality occurs after, not before, recessions end. This declining inflation environment will continue to bring down inflationary expectations and long-term Treasury bond yields.