while we slept; "I’m so Bearish, I’m Bullish"; stocks vs bonds (hint stocks ALWAYS win the debate); curves / spreads in different inflation regimes; "Declining liquidity in the Treasury market"
while we slept; "I’m so Bearish, I’m Bullish"; stocks vs bonds (hint stocks ALWAYS win the debate); curves / spreads in different inflation regimes; "Declining liquidity in the Treasury market"
thebondbeat.substack.com
Good morning … Was yesterday’s risk rally and bond market selloff enough of a ‘concession’ ahead of this afternoons 20yr auction? Yields have been in a marginal downtrend and momentum (yellow highlight - slow stochastics) would suggest to me that 20yy are neither rich OR cheap. Given the lack of (or DECLINING) liquidity which exists at the moment — yes it is typical of summer but continue reading for some research and visuals about the broader issue — I would not rule anything out. A bit more of a selloff here / now ahead of the auction could very well be viewed as concession rather than something much more nefarious at work. Just sayin’ …
while we slept; "I’m so Bearish, I’m Bullish"; stocks vs bonds (hint stocks ALWAYS win the debate); curves / spreads in different inflation regimes; "Declining liquidity in the Treasury market"
while we slept; "I’m so Bearish, I’m…
while we slept; "I’m so Bearish, I’m Bullish"; stocks vs bonds (hint stocks ALWAYS win the debate); curves / spreads in different inflation regimes; "Declining liquidity in the Treasury market"
Good morning … Was yesterday’s risk rally and bond market selloff enough of a ‘concession’ ahead of this afternoons 20yr auction? Yields have been in a marginal downtrend and momentum (yellow highlight - slow stochastics) would suggest to me that 20yy are neither rich OR cheap. Given the lack of (or DECLINING) liquidity which exists at the moment — yes it is typical of summer but continue reading for some research and visuals about the broader issue — I would not rule anything out. A bit more of a selloff here / now ahead of the auction could very well be viewed as concession rather than something much more nefarious at work. Just sayin’ …