while we slept; a picture(s) worth a thousand words; "Beware The Bible"; implied forward curves; impact from QT; got20s?
thebondbeat.substack.com
Good morning … they say a picture is worth a thousand words and so, I’ll spare you my ‘2 cents’ as this economic ink blot test can and will continue to be the focus for the remainder of the summer. I will only say that I am sympathetic to both sides of the debate BUT as a former markets guy, the price action (outright, curve) is where those are putting their money where their mouth is and I would respect that, first and foremost. It’s one thing to listen to those up in the Ivory Tower and quite another to be knee deep in career-risk trades / investments. When you look at that visual above (and before you consider couple below), think about the the worst downturn of our lifetime prior TO C19. 2008 now hardly shows up on the map. The economic backdrop is still normalizing and CPI will remain a concern beyond the next few weeks. The Fed knows this…and likely knows what its next move is going to be. The markets are attempting to price this in here / now rather than wait.
while we slept; a picture(s) worth a thousand words; "Beware The Bible"; implied forward curves; impact from QT; got20s?
while we slept; a picture(s) worth a thousand…
while we slept; a picture(s) worth a thousand words; "Beware The Bible"; implied forward curves; impact from QT; got20s?
Good morning … they say a picture is worth a thousand words and so, I’ll spare you my ‘2 cents’ as this economic ink blot test can and will continue to be the focus for the remainder of the summer. I will only say that I am sympathetic to both sides of the debate BUT as a former markets guy, the price action (outright, curve) is where those are putting their money where their mouth is and I would respect that, first and foremost. It’s one thing to listen to those up in the Ivory Tower and quite another to be knee deep in career-risk trades / investments. When you look at that visual above (and before you consider couple below), think about the the worst downturn of our lifetime prior TO C19. 2008 now hardly shows up on the map. The economic backdrop is still normalizing and CPI will remain a concern beyond the next few weeks. The Fed knows this…and likely knows what its next move is going to be. The markets are attempting to price this in here / now rather than wait.