Good morning / afternoon / evening - please choose whichever one which best describes when ever it may be that YOU are stumbling across this weekends note…
Thoughts on the fires? I think this is pretty likely going to start a recession in the US. It’s an absolute disaster for the 5th largest economy in the world. The government has been shown to be incompetent. It’s inflationary, hurts supply chains, and contributes to the housing shortage. It might take a few weeks to realize the scope of the damage, but I think it’s absolutely devastating.
devastating for sure am not quite there yet as cause for national recession but do see a Barclays and MS note talking of LADWP (200mil of wildfire coverage and over 2bb in liquidity) with all sorts of things remaining unclear ... NOT a muni expert but total cost est 50-60bb need more facts before jumping to recession conclusion. NJ (Sandy) was said to be so bad it would eventually be a boon to growth (rebuild) and that was / still is laughable / unconscionable. if these sorts of things were so 'good' for growth they'd be scheduled every so often ... to your point though, 5th largest econ in world, BIG hit, certainly complicates Fed job in 2025 ... awaiting more details, stay safe
Thoughts on the fires? I think this is pretty likely going to start a recession in the US. It’s an absolute disaster for the 5th largest economy in the world. The government has been shown to be incompetent. It’s inflationary, hurts supply chains, and contributes to the housing shortage. It might take a few weeks to realize the scope of the damage, but I think it’s absolutely devastating.
devastating for sure am not quite there yet as cause for national recession but do see a Barclays and MS note talking of LADWP (200mil of wildfire coverage and over 2bb in liquidity) with all sorts of things remaining unclear ... NOT a muni expert but total cost est 50-60bb need more facts before jumping to recession conclusion. NJ (Sandy) was said to be so bad it would eventually be a boon to growth (rebuild) and that was / still is laughable / unconscionable. if these sorts of things were so 'good' for growth they'd be scheduled every so often ... to your point though, 5th largest econ in world, BIG hit, certainly complicates Fed job in 2025 ... awaiting more details, stay safe