Good morning … Risk is ON as SVB has been saved and … here is a snapshot OF USTs as of 705a: … HERE is what another shop says be behind the price action overnight… … WHILE YOU SLEPT Treasuries are sharply lower and the curve flatter after a regional bank bought large chunks of a recently failed banks' business and also after Friday's US rates price action traced out clear bull trend exhaustion signals (see below). DXY is UNCHD while front WTI futures are higher (+1.1%). Asian stocks were mixed, EU and UK share markets are all higher (SX5E +1.1%, SX7E +1.9%) and ES futures are showing +0.55% here at 6:55am. Our overnight US rates flows were unobtainable this morning while overnight Treasury volume was ~65% of average overall- except in the 30yr (209%)...
If you look closely in the background there is a line of small local banks being lined up for consolidation, or, is it a line of foreign banks with branches in the US lining up at a deposit window? IDK, but, when betting on the winner(s) in a snake pit it makes sense to bet on the largest (harder to swallow) reptiles. As there are still ~4000 mostly small locals left in the US it should be quite the reptilian smorgasbord. What I wish I knew was how the pit-masters are going to tilt the odds. Towards the larger regionals with enough tidbits to placate the systemics? KBWB dip seems to be within range of a reasonable risk for 3 to 5 year timeframe assuming only total return.
'I love the smell of consolidation in the morning ... someday this is going to end'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRp7tYWnJJs
If you look closely in the background there is a line of small local banks being lined up for consolidation, or, is it a line of foreign banks with branches in the US lining up at a deposit window? IDK, but, when betting on the winner(s) in a snake pit it makes sense to bet on the largest (harder to swallow) reptiles. As there are still ~4000 mostly small locals left in the US it should be quite the reptilian smorgasbord. What I wish I knew was how the pit-masters are going to tilt the odds. Towards the larger regionals with enough tidbits to placate the systemics? KBWB dip seems to be within range of a reasonable risk for 3 to 5 year timeframe assuming only total return.
I think I meant to say discount window. Humor is seriously hard, but, as should be obvious, my lack of knowledge and experience in FI does help.