(USTs mixed on light volumes)while WE slept; PBoC CUTS; REAL incomes fell; 'sticky prices' remained sticky (Atl FED); 2yy vs 55dMA and URATE to rise in 2024, so says McClellan (as he interprets data)
(USTs mixed on light volumes)while WE slept; PBoC CUTS; REAL incomes fell; 'sticky prices' remained sticky (Atl FED); 2yy vs 55dMA and URATE to rise in 2024, so says McClellan (as he interprets data)
Good morning … we interrupt your regularly scheduled programming with a reminder that ALL IS WELL in China RTRS (via CNBC): China cuts banks’ reserve ratio to aid recovery The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all banks, except those that have implemented a 5% reserve ratio, by 25 basis points from Sept. 15.
Well you sure ended today's w/a real dozy-the 2% inflation target's Illegal. Maybe that Fed Wisper can give some column time to THAT topic. Not holding my breath. You're an incredible wealth of info there Steve!
Your 'Bidenomics is working quip' triggered something within my mind. I get daily Doug Casey emails, usually of the Get out of Dodge, Get out of the system variety. Casey has a 'Greater Depression incoming' thesis, that he laid out in much greater detail his 1984ish vision of. This reminded me of a recent 'Rosie' interview w/Blockworks, where Rosie said, "I'm not as concerned when the recession starts, but rather when it ENDS". Rosie has a milder but perhaps much longer recession thesis. Could our ultimate Recession path be somewhere between the Casey & Rosie thesis? Sobering Food for Thought IMO.
Comprehensive summary...........
The Phillips Curve, the trade off between Inflation and Recession, is a long held belief.
But there are man periods of time where Economic Growth doesn't cause Inflation.
Productivity is an important factor.
I agree with your Conclusions, basically.
Not sure another 25 has any real significance....Fed should probably and let the Lags catch up.
Inflation is a more difficult problem than Employment.
The Fed can't control US Domestic Oil Production and Refining.
For that we have to look to the Biden Administration and see if they can muster any kind of
Coherent Energy Policy...........that's a big if....
We may a slowing of the Economy, but Bond Rates may not fall because of the Large Amount
of US Gov't Debt that the Biden Administration must sell...and it sounds like it might be a
Buyers Market....
33 Trillion in US Debt.....1.9 Trillion Annual Budget Deficits and 20% of the US Federal Budget in
2030, will be Interest Expense......That's the Road the Biden Admin has us on.
How does that look ???
Well you sure ended today's w/a real dozy-the 2% inflation target's Illegal. Maybe that Fed Wisper can give some column time to THAT topic. Not holding my breath. You're an incredible wealth of info there Steve!
Are FMS bears coming out of hibernation early?
IDK, but, when in doubt, blame it on everyone's favorite (e)scapegoat:
https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-51836206
Your 'Bidenomics is working quip' triggered something within my mind. I get daily Doug Casey emails, usually of the Get out of Dodge, Get out of the system variety. Casey has a 'Greater Depression incoming' thesis, that he laid out in much greater detail his 1984ish vision of. This reminded me of a recent 'Rosie' interview w/Blockworks, where Rosie said, "I'm not as concerned when the recession starts, but rather when it ENDS". Rosie has a milder but perhaps much longer recession thesis. Could our ultimate Recession path be somewhere between the Casey & Rosie thesis? Sobering Food for Thought IMO.