Good morning … 10yy in somewhat longerterm daily context … Momentum remains bullish but let us see how things settle AFTER NFP and where daily / weekly charts suggest we may be headed next … Welp, there goes THAT greatest start TO the bond market since 2001!
Have been thinking more about your references to the 'narrative-makers' now that I've picked through a tiny sampling of the FI sell-side content you used to post via the google-drive links. Rather than use this as platform to wax-stupid about my ill-conceived understanding(s), principally (at the moment at least) about the FI marketing machine and the complete(?) distortion that has been wrought upon Capital Markets (from their purpose(s) as immaculately conceived in textbooks) via forces beyond our willingness to shape and control, that are nowhere near to being licked into shape, I'll just post a couple of recent links that help me to keep the daily volatility grind in perspective while serving as a useful reminder not to forget what I already learned watching over my equities.
I suppose buried in there is one of the key reasons the sell-side opinion maker fraternity are constantly trading places as they strive to create and propagate narratives. The 'power' and 'money' to be harvested once you've implanted a narrative that catches on is probably irresistible for many. I know many will say "Doh!", and they are correct to point out that this is hardly an earth shattering observation in speed-of-light Influencer driven Krill & Whale Capitalism, but still, the sheer scale of it is so vast and shifting it will tax the brightest and long-living student foolish enough to attempt to understand the whole organism. I suppose most of us confronted with such complexity wisely(?) only attempt to tackle a bit-player or two and humbly accept we are no less someone else's Krill, and then hope we make it to Retirement before getting Whaled ourselves. So, it is understandable in a twisted way how attractive it must be to calf off (capture) your own school of Krill, feed them on a narrative as long as possible, and then use second and third order anticipatory game-theory thinking ("strategic sophistication") to harvest them now that you have insight into how most of the school will zig and zag for a time or two ahead.
Apparently Krill never tire of getting bubbles blown up their.... The metaphor suggests the importance of the SEC for resource management and mitigating the dangers of over-fishing leading to ecosystem collapse I suppose.
Of course, I could be utterly wrong and would be better off working on my belly-button lint collection.
Have been thinking more about your references to the 'narrative-makers' now that I've picked through a tiny sampling of the FI sell-side content you used to post via the google-drive links. Rather than use this as platform to wax-stupid about my ill-conceived understanding(s), principally (at the moment at least) about the FI marketing machine and the complete(?) distortion that has been wrought upon Capital Markets (from their purpose(s) as immaculately conceived in textbooks) via forces beyond our willingness to shape and control, that are nowhere near to being licked into shape, I'll just post a couple of recent links that help me to keep the daily volatility grind in perspective while serving as a useful reminder not to forget what I already learned watching over my equities.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr1044.pdf
The plain English synopsis and link source:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-04/the-fed-may-have-discovered-the-secret-to-successful-trading
I suppose buried in there is one of the key reasons the sell-side opinion maker fraternity are constantly trading places as they strive to create and propagate narratives. The 'power' and 'money' to be harvested once you've implanted a narrative that catches on is probably irresistible for many. I know many will say "Doh!", and they are correct to point out that this is hardly an earth shattering observation in speed-of-light Influencer driven Krill & Whale Capitalism, but still, the sheer scale of it is so vast and shifting it will tax the brightest and long-living student foolish enough to attempt to understand the whole organism. I suppose most of us confronted with such complexity wisely(?) only attempt to tackle a bit-player or two and humbly accept we are no less someone else's Krill, and then hope we make it to Retirement before getting Whaled ourselves. So, it is understandable in a twisted way how attractive it must be to calf off (capture) your own school of Krill, feed them on a narrative as long as possible, and then use second and third order anticipatory game-theory thinking ("strategic sophistication") to harvest them now that you have insight into how most of the school will zig and zag for a time or two ahead.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubble-net_feeding
Apparently Krill never tire of getting bubbles blown up their.... The metaphor suggests the importance of the SEC for resource management and mitigating the dangers of over-fishing leading to ecosystem collapse I suppose.
Of course, I could be utterly wrong and would be better off working on my belly-button lint collection.