sellside observations for the week ahead (03/13th); SVB is / is NOT 2008 (please choose); it is / is NOT different this time (please choose); 2yy (and THE bible) weigh in
sellside observations for the week ahead (03/13th); SVB is / is NOT 2008 (please choose); it is / is NOT different this time (please choose); 2yy (and THE bible) weigh in
Good morning/noon/night (please choose one depending upon where you reside and whenever it is you maybe stumbling across this and THEN add one hour and, well you get it…). I’ll apologize upfront as I’m not a bank analyst and I’m NOT a HTM or AFS or deposit ratio expert.
Treasure trove of pertinent links once again. Subscribe to Tooze so I'll get to that one soon. I was enjoying the AIER link till it ended like a JPOW pressor. There is going to be a political limit among the Public for how much longer these rates of inflation will be tolerated. After the GFC there wasn't much sympathy for the Banks among the Public and it didn't take long for a fair number of the Pols to get in line. Whether it is fair to the Regionals or not, doubt this time will be different on that score. He can't have it both ways. Suggesting 6% rates, but then saying rates will get cut because some regional banks feel the strain is getting annoying to read/hear. This notion America is so fastidious about the 'pain' banks are feeling just doesn't square with the Financial and Banking Crises and subsequent carnage I've witnessed repeatedly at this point. Remember the carnage among Banks in Texas, or Arizona, or New Mexico, or California, or pick the state or region of your choice? Most anyone will probably ask, if they probe their memories about it a minute, which among the episodes of Banking carnage in Texas would Mr Wriggles be referring to as there are so many? This link covers a little more than a decade in a long history of banking carnage just in the SW: https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/history/291_336.pdf It would be nothing short of miraculous if SIVB is the only casualty after inflation hit ~10%. As you point out this isn't anything you haven't witnessed, so my apologies, I'm just venting.
Treasure trove of pertinent links once again. Subscribe to Tooze so I'll get to that one soon. I was enjoying the AIER link till it ended like a JPOW pressor. There is going to be a political limit among the Public for how much longer these rates of inflation will be tolerated. After the GFC there wasn't much sympathy for the Banks among the Public and it didn't take long for a fair number of the Pols to get in line. Whether it is fair to the Regionals or not, doubt this time will be different on that score. He can't have it both ways. Suggesting 6% rates, but then saying rates will get cut because some regional banks feel the strain is getting annoying to read/hear. This notion America is so fastidious about the 'pain' banks are feeling just doesn't square with the Financial and Banking Crises and subsequent carnage I've witnessed repeatedly at this point. Remember the carnage among Banks in Texas, or Arizona, or New Mexico, or California, or pick the state or region of your choice? Most anyone will probably ask, if they probe their memories about it a minute, which among the episodes of Banking carnage in Texas would Mr Wriggles be referring to as there are so many? This link covers a little more than a decade in a long history of banking carnage just in the SW: https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/history/291_336.pdf It would be nothing short of miraculous if SIVB is the only casualty after inflation hit ~10%. As you point out this isn't anything you haven't witnessed, so my apologies, I'm just venting.