(EZ PMIs weak, 2y Ger set for biggest weekly drop since '08 and SOLID volumes o/n) while we slept; AT&T? "Buying a Bounce in Bonds"; '3 is the magic number'; this is fine
(EZ PMIs weak, 2y Ger set for biggest weekly drop since '08 and SOLID volumes o/n) while we slept; AT&T? "Buying a Bounce in Bonds"; '3 is the magic number'; this is fine
Good morning … Long bonds are becoming overbought and they aren’t even leading the charge this morning (that would be 7yy down just OVER 9bps as of 645a). Bonds, What a difference a day makes. This doesn’t mean they are an immediate SALE. It is only on a DAILY basis and while any sort of setback (ie concession) likely to be viewed in longer term frameworks (weekly / monthly) as DIPportunities, I just thought I’d mention it. The 50dMA (3.153%) remains an area of interest as we’re knocking on the door of 3% … which is NOT ‘the magic number’ referred to in the subject. For that, see below…For now, here is a snapshot OF USTs as of 718a:
Another enjoyable read. You are now my official go to curator for ZH. Hope you carry the crushing mantle of that strictly honorary title on your shoulders well.
On https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/stockprice-3 I was picking through the age related demographics lines, and it seems the YOLOs have quickly reset their stock market equity expectations downward to catch up with their elder YODOs (You Only Die Once?). These simplistic polls and charts are riddled with contradictions and probably useless for the most part to investors, but, I have to wonder if some policy maker somewhere won't fail to notice the elder's (voters!) undiminished expectations for higher amounts of Government largess ("One-year ahead government debt growth expectations") going forward than their children and grandchildren. Apparently, the YODOs feel that this support will not come in a monetary form since their stock market exceptions are leading the probing of new lows. Running the age chart lines, like an ancient Roman forecaster/oracle 'running' the intestines of a fallen fowl through their fingers, I sense the golden-oldie line did the best when it came to hearing the music stopping back in 11/21 and 12/21. The voice on high also tells me the redlines appear to have gambled on one last dip-buying foray shortly after 2022 got underway. Fell for the first bear market rally. The hardcore cyan-liners appear to have thrown a saddle on the mean old bear and rode it on down. Unfortunately, I can't confirm this for sure until I fondle the liver of a virgin white goose without a single black feather. (As stipulated in the standard Oracle Contract all prognostications are null and void and as an oracle I am not to be held in any way responsible for actions taken based on the gutz and gizzards of said virgin white goose if a single black feather is later found on said bird, otherwise, it is the standard 2/20 fee structure for all divinations.)
Steve,
Another enjoyable read. You are now my official go to curator for ZH. Hope you carry the crushing mantle of that strictly honorary title on your shoulders well.
On https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/stockprice-3 I was picking through the age related demographics lines, and it seems the YOLOs have quickly reset their stock market equity expectations downward to catch up with their elder YODOs (You Only Die Once?). These simplistic polls and charts are riddled with contradictions and probably useless for the most part to investors, but, I have to wonder if some policy maker somewhere won't fail to notice the elder's (voters!) undiminished expectations for higher amounts of Government largess ("One-year ahead government debt growth expectations") going forward than their children and grandchildren. Apparently, the YODOs feel that this support will not come in a monetary form since their stock market exceptions are leading the probing of new lows. Running the age chart lines, like an ancient Roman forecaster/oracle 'running' the intestines of a fallen fowl through their fingers, I sense the golden-oldie line did the best when it came to hearing the music stopping back in 11/21 and 12/21. The voice on high also tells me the redlines appear to have gambled on one last dip-buying foray shortly after 2022 got underway. Fell for the first bear market rally. The hardcore cyan-liners appear to have thrown a saddle on the mean old bear and rode it on down. Unfortunately, I can't confirm this for sure until I fondle the liver of a virgin white goose without a single black feather. (As stipulated in the standard Oracle Contract all prognostications are null and void and as an oracle I am not to be held in any way responsible for actions taken based on the gutz and gizzards of said virgin white goose if a single black feather is later found on said bird, otherwise, it is the standard 2/20 fee structure for all divinations.)