In these moments leading up TO the all important Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report where many on the sell-side and in the economics class are expecting a blowout (750k for example), here is a bulge bracket firms recap of what transpired overnight,
…Treasuries are modestly higher and the curve flatter out to 10's (yields little changed across the curve a few hours ago) ahead of today's NFP and ISM non-manufacturing releases. China's Premier Li was on the tapes a few minutes ago (6:20am NY time) saying that the RRR rate will be cut at the 'proper time.' The news was otherwise pretty thin overnight (see above), DXY is UNCHD while front WTI futures are +2.1%. Asian stocks were mostly higher, EU and UK share markets are little changed while ES futures are showing -0.2% here at 6:30am. Our Asian session US rates flows saw selling meet an early uptick that seemed linked to news of more NY Omicron cases and a first identified case in LA. We saw selling from 2's through 30's from a variety of accounts- on elevated volumes during their hours. Now through London's AM hours, overnight Treasury volume was actually quite weak again (~65% of average) despite the elevated turnover during Tokyo time. Today's standout benchmark was 20yrs (156%) but one modest-sized trade can move the needle a LOT for them so...
This afternoons WEEKLY close far more important than pre NFP position squaring. With that in mind, here’s a WEEKLY visual of 30yy via investing.com where it would appear to me that we’re at an INFLECTION POINT (1.75) and with momentum (stochastics) reaching into overBOUGHT territory …