750k NonFarm Payroll (NFP) jobs Friday
Diane Swonk/Grant Thornton throws her dart at the board...
HOPE, while not a strategy, continues to spring eternally in markets. Diane Swonk, a very popular sell-side economist, just released her NFP pre-cap and victory lap …
Click HERE to ‘READ MORE’ where you’ll find her (2-handed economic) conclusion,
… The real issues affecting employment are education and child care, which, along with more reliable school schedules, are needed for a lot of single mothers to return to the labor market. Some schools were forced to close early during the Thanksgiving holiday because of a lack of teachers and support staff. The Chicago public schools have begun to pay bonuses to substitute teachers to get them to work more hours and fill gaps left by COVID. Most public school districts saved money and are flush with cash from the most recent stimulus package and surges in real estate revenues triggered by the housing boom. They need to allocate those funds to better compete with the private sector for workers. Public sector wage gains severely lagged private sector wage gains in the third quarter …
… The key is whether the gains we see in November can be maintained. Another Delta wave, which likely gained momentum during the Thanksgiving travel surge and the unknown risks associated with the new variant Omicron, is expected to dampen travel and tourism in December and early January.
Valuable insights? Lets see if she wins the markets closest to the pin contest Friday.