while WE slept: USTs rangebound into NFP; ECB beginning of the end (of cuts?); 10yy correlated w/polymarket recession odds; when 'dumb money' sells bonds...; FI desks consult risk managers, pls ...
Good morning … I wanted to try and go ‘light’ today as NFP to drop soon, effectively setting Global Wall’s narrative creators into overdrive over the weekend (and then again into / out of next weeks CPI Wed) … but then this all blew up …
ZH: Musk 'Yes' On Trump Impeachment; Will 'Immediately' Decommission SpaceX Dragon & Doubles Down On Epstein Claims
… I give up. We all kinda knew this moment would arrive. Not sure this is as shocking as MSM might like us to believe. Markets seem to take it all in stride which, frankly, makes some amount of common sense. The economic impact of these two fighting over twitter is likely NOT as big as we’re led to believe.
Taking a quick look at RATES — 10s specifically — which held / bounced against resistance 55dMA …
10yy DAILY: I’ll be watching 55dMA 4.345% resistance and then triangulating RANGE (4.43 - 4.33) … if a weak print (NFP less than say 100k) and bonds catch a bid, watching 4.20% (middle of 1yr range) …
… at the same time, noting DAILY momentum is overBOUGHT (yields can grind around OR go higher to work this off) and this makes me pause, perhaps looking for dip-OR-tunity in days / weeks ahead …
I’ll attempt to have somewhat more over the weekend BUT before we jump in, another look at rates bit further out the curve AND on a weekly basis … from YESTERDAYS note, a look at long bonds as NFP comes and goes and the dust settles, here’s what I’ll be watchin’ …
…US 30y yields 30y yields have moved lower after coming close to the 5% level again over the last few days. We remind that we still stay significantly above support at 4.79% (55d MA). We think 30y yields will hold in this 4.79%-5.18% (2023 high) range for now…
… Okie dokie. THAT in mind, on TO a look back at the day which just passed and the ECB rate cut which was widely anticipated …
ZH: ECB Cuts Rates by 25bps As Expected, Slashes 2026 Inflation Forecast
… combined with IJC and the boogey man of trade deficits data …
ZH: US Jobless Claims Surge To 8 Month Highs ZH: US Trade Deficit Shrinks By Most On Record In April As Imports Plunged
… which setup some early ‘math’ which was as follows:
ECB + IJC + = bond BID … easy peasy, right?
WRONG.
Rates turned ‘round headed back UP following stonks after …
ZH: "Very Positive Conclusion" - Trump Confirms 'Very Good Phone Call' With Xi
… S&P futures surged back towards their highs on the news...
… close but not 100% accurate as this equity recovery was then greeted by the aforementioned public spat and everything was dumped …
First things first, the Trump vs Musk death-match went to '11' today and it was not pretty (here are all the details)...
… Additionally, ahead of tomorrow's 'most anticipated ever' payrolls print, this week has finally seen US labor market data react to the weak sentiment we have seen for months...
… It's hard to say WTF was driving price action today - Trump-Xi call, weak jobs, crazy trade balance swings, Trump-Musk war... but it sparked selling in pretty much everything ahead of tomorrow's payrolls print.
Bonds, stocks, crypto, and gold were all dumped as the dollar ended unchanged as 'uncertainty' soars again.
Trying to trade stocks while the richest man in the world and POTUS are in a massive cat fight on @Xpic.twitter.com/JqmNUNMkaW
ECB + IJC + Trump, Xi call = bond and stonks selloff … easy peasy, right?
AND here we are … moments from THE most important data point of our lifetimes (to be followed next week by the NEXT most important — CPI Wednesday — rinse and repeat …) and we’re all consumed BY DJT vs Musk.
What, if any impact on the BBB will this have?
Dunno. Not sure it matters as much as MSM might like us to believe.
Washington never thought like or was run like a small business trying to figure things out. The BBB, then, is fitting for the system it lives and breathes in. So, then the idea Musk is not pleased makes 100% common sense.
Long bonds are much like Musk (and all the MAG7) tech stocks — long duration instruments — and funding of the government, along with uncertainty, should scare the bejesus out of them.
It did / does.
A data point here in a couple / few hours like the one we saw Wednesday brings us right back to BAD IS GOOD — see Barclays just below … rate cuts = equity markets BID, tighter credit spreads, right? Right, until Wyle E Coyote looks down and everything is wrong.
Enjoy the vol as you plan your TRADES and TRADE your plans, keep your friends close and your stops closer.
I’ll have something more over the weekend as the narratives are updated but for now … here is a snapshot OF USTs as of 700a:
… for somewhat MORE of the news you might be able to use … a few more curated links for your dining and dancing pleasure …
NEWSQUAWK US Market Open: DXY, USTs and US futures gain ground ahead of US jobs … USTs are a touch higher ahead of the US jobs report and following yesterday's ECB-led losses. Bunds are attempting to atone for yesterday's downside. Gilts are being led by the upside in German paper … USTs - USTs are a touch higher ahead of the US jobs report and following yesterday's ECB-led losses which outmuscled a spike higher in weekly claims metrics. As it stands, the next 25bps cut is not fully priced until September with 54bps of loosening seen by year-end. Sep'25 USTs are currently within yesterday's 110.23+ to 111.14+ range. From a yield perspective, the US curve is fractionally in bull flattening mode, whilst the 10yr yield has moved back to the 4.37% after venturing as low as 4.318% yesterday.
Finviz (for everything else I might have overlooked …)
Moving from some of the news to some of THE VIEWS you might be able to use… here’s some of what Global Wall St is sayin’ … it is one part rather large part ECB recap / victory lap and another small part everything (claims, tariffs, deficits) else …
Claims ahead of NFP aren’t generally too helpful BUT …
5 June 2025 Barclays: Initial claims increase looks exaggerated
Initial jobless claims under regular state programs rose 8k, to 247k, the highest level since October. Most of this came in Kentucky, where SA claims jumped 5.5k. Questionable seasonal adjustments also contributed to the SA rise, with NSA claims declining and in line with seasonal norms…
The ECB cut all policy rates by 25bp and reiterated its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance, avoiding any rate path commitment. Although President Lagarde adopted a more hawkish tone than expected during the press conference, we continue to project a terminal rate of 1.5%….
… same shop with a few words on NEXT WEEKS CPI … feels too soon, we’ve not even gotten the NFP, but ok, here we go …
We forecast core CPI inflation accelerated 3bp to 0.27% m/m (2.9% y/y) in May, driven entirely by higher core goods inflation despite another month of modest deflation in used cars. We estimate headline CPI rounded down to 0.1% m/m (2.4% y/y), and the NSA index was at 321.591.
…Our CPI forecasts translate into a core PCE inflation reading of 0.25% m/m (2.7% y/y) for May, following the very benign April reading (0.12% m/m). This reflects, in part, the acceleration we expect in the CPI data, as well as our expectation of firmer PPI inputs for healthcare and financial services.
We revise our year-end core CPI forecast higher by 0.1pp to 3.8% y/y after baking in the additional 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum that went into effect on June 4. We leave our 2026 forecasts largely unchanged, and continue to expect tariff-related price pressures to peak in August-September 2025 (see the section below on Medium-term CPI forecast for details)…
… Finally, a couple from across the pond where stock jockeys are watching … rates and betting markets outcomes on recessions …
Softening US data has put a lid on yields, which is a silver lining for equities. Meanwhile, Momentum shows no sign of reversal given anchored expectations of higher rates & weaker dollar. Payrolls will be key, and matter for the next leg of the cyclicals/defensives and EU domestics/exporters trade.
… More data disappointment would certainly challenge the goldilocks mindset, but mild weakness so far has come as a silver lining for equities. Indeed, amid ongoing debt sustainability concerns, it has put a lid on long end yields and revived expectations of Fed easing. So bad is good, the grind higher in equity market continues and Momentum shows no sign of reversing.
Index and inter-sector correlations jumped to historical highs during the sell-off and have not reset despite the market rebound, which could make it a tougher environment for stock picking and active management as equities stay zeroed in on macro developments.
The ECB’s June meeting has left us more confident in our base case of a July ‘skip’, as a material, albeit temporary, expected undershooting of the 2% inflation target belied a more hawkish narrative.
We still see another cut in September to 1.75%. Our view is supported by President Christine Lagarde’s assertion that the cutting cycle was “nearly” concluded, the fact that the projections implicitly embed another cut, as well as the asymmetry of risks stemming from trade policy.
Further ahead, despite sounding optimistic, the ECB does not yet fully embed the extent of the fiscal policy shift in Germany and elsewhere, in our view. We continue to expect 50bp of hikes in H2 2026 as its effects start to bear fruit.
… same shop on …
05 Jun 2025 BNP US: Tariffs mitigate OBBBA’s erosion of fiscal fitness
KEY MESSAGES
We expect the fiscal package now making its way through the US Senate will ultimately be larger than the $2.4 trillion bill (a ten-year cost) the House passed on 22 May.
That said, we see a budget deficit near 6% of GDP over the next few years, narrower than recent consensus estimates, reflecting about $3 trillion in tariff revenue incorporated into our base case.
However, uncertainty around our projection is material and skewed in the direction of wider deficits and more debt.
While we have highlighted the grey swan risk of a “Liz Truss moment” for US Treasuries, our narrower-than-consensus deficit outlook (if realized) should alleviate some of the concerns priced into the market.
Thursday’s early bid was ultimately more-than-erased in a move that can be linked to positioning and the technicals as much as the evolution of the macro-outlook. 10-year yields managed to slip as low as 4.31% on the back of an unexpected increase in jobless claims that brought the index to its highest level since October 2024, although when accounting for seasonal factors and the fact that the data was collected after NFP survey week, there was a collective sense that the initial bid was overdone, if not entirely misplaced. The weakness in EGBs on the back of a hawkish cut by the European Central Bank contributed to the bearish reversal in Treasuries, as did boosted hopes of progress in US-China trade talks. President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, “We had a very good talk and we’ve straightened out any complexity,” … “I think we’re in very good shape with China and the trade deal.” …
… Mixed signals from the data over the last several sessions have made tomorrow’s employment report a more significant wildcard than we were assuming at the beginning of the week. After trading as low as 4.31% in the morning, Thursday’s bearish reversal has brought 10-year rates right back up against the lower bound of the 4.40-4.60% trading zone that had contained the price action for several weeks until yesterday’s bullish breakout on the unexpected drop in ADP/ISM Services. We’ll look for 10-year rates to return well into this trading zone in the event that NFP confirms the resilience of the labor market, although a significant disappointment should put a breach of 4.25% on the table. Also on Friday, we’ll be mindful of the potential for supply-related flows as attention begins to shift toward next week’s 10- and 30-year auctions in the wake of NFP.
… IF we’re looking for an ECB recap we should likely be paying more attention to those closest …
05 June 2025 DB: ECB Reaction: The end, or the beginning of the end?
As expected, the ECB cut the deposit facility rate 25bp to 2.00%. We thought President Lagarde might send a soft signal of willingness to pause in July. The message that President Lagarde sent – that the ECB is “in a good position to navigate the uncertainties ahead” – feels more significant. It feels like the ECB is saying that it has reached the appropriate level of rates and can afford to remain at this level of rates for longer.
The ECB acknowledges the arguments for macro resilience: rising real incomes, a robust labour market, easy financial conditions and the anticipation of defence and infrastructure spending. Yet uncertainty remains high. The risks to growth are still described as being skewed to the downside. The outlook for inflation is “more uncertain than usual”.
We are holding the view of the ECB cutting rates to 1.5% for the moment. We acknowledged in our Preview that the risk of the ECB stopping the easing cycle before it reaches 1.5% had increased. However, it is still too early to judge the impact of trade war, and the path of the trade war is in any case still inherently unpredictable. We are expecting growth to be soft in H2 and think that underlying domestic disinflation is entrenched. Even modest downside surprises could encourage the Governing Council to cut again.
… Same shop with an early morning reid of markets (and rates recap) …
… The trade headlines outweighed an initial negative reaction to the latest weekly US jobless claims, which added to fears that the US labour market was finally deteriorating after Liberation Day. Initial jobless claims (one of the most timely indicators we get) moved up to 247k in the week ending May 31 (vs. 235k expected), reaching their highest level since October. Moreover, that followed the very soft ADP report the previous day, which had private payrolls up by just +37k in May. The one caveat to the claims data is that seasonals tend to boost the number a bit at this time of the year. However it’s not the only evidence of a slightly weakening labour market. So that’s really heightened the focus on today’s jobs report for May, as any softness there would really magnify those fears. In terms of what to expect, our US economists forecast nonfarm payrolls to come in at +125k, dipping down from the +177k in March, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.
Those competing factors drove a big turnaround for US Treasuries yesterday. They initially fell back, with the 10yr yield hitting an intraday low of 4.31% just after the claims data. But the hawkish ECB decision and the Trump-Xi call led to a significant turnaround, with the 10yr yield ultimately closing up +3.7bps at 4.39%. The moves were even larger at the front-end of the curve, with the 2yr yield up +5.4bps to 3.92% as investors dialled back the likelihood of Fed rate cuts…
The world awaits and is watching the (European) belly …
6 June 2025 ING Rates Spark: Global markets brace for US payrolls
This week's highlight may be May's US payrolls number, which consensus sees falling from 177k to 125k. A bad number will lower US rates, but near-term inflation fears and fiscal concerns push in the opposite direction. The next ECB cut, following yesterday's meeting, is difficult to predict. But the bigger picture hasn't changed, and we still see a landing at 1.75%
Markets are bracing for a weak US payrolls number Friday is all about the US payroll numbers, which consensus expects to fall from 177k to 125k, thereby already positioning for a cooling jobs market. The whisper number on Bloomberg turned more pessimistic after this week’s data, with only 111k expected. US rate dynamics are more complex than in the eurozone, with different forces acting in opposing directions. Apart from growth worries, there are also inflation and fiscal pressures to consider.
A weak US payroll number should place more emphasis on the recession risk narrative and push yields down across the curve. But both the front end of the curve and the back end can only go so far. Inflation risks limit the Fed's ability to ease in the near term, and the ongoing discussions on Trump’s tax bill keep the back end higher. Whilst the spillovers to euro rates from the US seemed limited this week, we do think a bad US payroll number can hit global market sentiment and weigh down the back end of the euro curve.
The belly of the curve can outperform amid uncertainty…
…More on the ECB (and a global macro reCAP, an update on legislation as well as an economic week ahead) …
June 5, 2025 MS ECB Review: Heading for the Summer Break
The ECB deliver the anticipated 25bp rate cut today. The press conference likely conveyed the Council's current baseline: a pause in July, fully in line with our expectations. The new set of projections shows weaker growth ahead, lower inflation in 2025-26, rising back to target in 2027.
ECB cuts rates by 25bp but signals it's close to the end of the easing cycle; Bunds bear-flatten after ECB; US-China trade talks; UST sell-off despite soft labor data; JPY underperforms as JGBs rally; fiscal uncertainty in Colombia; DXY at 98.73 (-0.1%); US 10y at 4.391% (+1.4bp)
…USTs bear-flatten (2y: +6bp) as the European duration sell-off overshadows an intraday rally that was spurred by higher-than-expected jobless claims ahead of Friday's payroll report…
In the One Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts are front-loaded and spending cuts are back-loaded. Although two-thirds of the total debt accumulation comes between 2025-29, unfavorable multipliers on many provisions mean the fiscal impulse is small at about 0.2pp in 2026. Thereafter, fiscal would be a drag.
Key takeaways
Using information from the JCT and CBO, we estimate the House reconciliation bill would add $2.84tn in deficits through 2034.
Two-thirds of this total ($1.89tn) comes by 2029. Tax cuts are front-loaded and expire in 2028. Spending cuts, weighted to Medicaid, do not kick in until 2027.
If enacted, fiscal policy turns regressive. Tariffs and Medicaid cuts weigh on low-income households to extend existing tax cuts for upper-income households.
Our estimates point to a modest 0.2pp contribution to growth in 2026. Extending tax cuts is not stimulative and multipliers on other provisions are unfavorable.
We expect the Senate to make changes that skew the final bill in the direction of additional deficit expansion, pushing the price tag toward $4.0tn.
June 6, 2025 MS US Economics Weekly: House budget bill: Unlikely to offset drags from restrictive trade and immigration policies
In the One Big Beautiful Bill, two-thirds of the total debt accumulation comes between 2025-29, but unfavorable multipliers on many provisions mean the fiscal impulse is small at about 0.2pp in 2026. Not enough to offset drags from trade and immigration policies.
Key takeaways
We estimate the House reconciliation bill would add $2.84tn in deficits through 2034. Two-thirds of this total ($1.89tn) comes by 2029.
Our estimates point to a modest 0.2pp contribution to growth in 2026. Extending tax cuts is not stimulative and multipliers on other provisions are unfavorable.
We expect the Senate to make changes that skew the final bill in the direction of additional deficit expansion, pushing the price tag toward $4.0tn.
The ECB cut rates to 2%, but suggested that barring downside surprises, it may already be done cutting. We hold onto to our forecast that no further cuts will be seen, though risks remain tilted to the downside.
Donovan weighing in on public feud and we agree (for a change) …
06 Jun 2025 UBS: Hiring, firing, and imprecise data
The US May employment report is due, with the regular reminders that this data has become increasingly unreliable in recent years, and average earnings are not wages. This month’s data will correct errors that crept into last month’s data. Signs of weakness in restaurant and leisure travel sectors mean fewer lower paid workers may be employed, raising average earnings without affecting wages. But, the Federal Reserve’s “data dependency” means the labor market is seen as a trigger for policy action.
Expectations are for fewer jobs to have been created (and the most common forecast is for a payrolls figure below consensus). Firms may have slowed hiring as trade policy uncertainty has increased, but there is unlikely to be an increase in firing. That does mean that rate cuts would have a limited impact right now (although if consumer demand weakens, rate cuts become more important).
The ECB cut interest rates as expected yesterday. ECB President Lagarde’s comments at the press conference reduced market expectations of further cuts, but a July reduction is still plausible. Lagarde speaks again today.
Somewhat against the spirit of Pride Month, there has been an acrimonious separation between US President Trump and Trump mega-donor Musk. Media attention is out of proportion to the economic consequences.
Trade deficits and tariffs … it’s all related and maybe NOT how you wanna spend your waning moments ahead of NFP but if it is …
June 5, 2025 Wells Fargo: U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply Amid Unwinding of Temporary Import Surge
Summary The temporary surge in imports as businesses pulled-forward demand to get ahead of tariffs has run its course. The U.S. international trade deficit narrowed sharply in April as a result and suggests a big boost to Q2 growth from net exports.
… same shop on the ECB …
June 5, 2025 Wells Fargo: European Central Bank Continues Rate Cut Cycle
Summary
The European Central Bank (ECB), in a widely expected decision, lowered its Deposit Rate by 25 bps to 2.00% at today's announcement, while its accompanying statement contained both dovish elements and some more constructive elements.
The ECB noted that current conditions were exceptionally uncertain, while also observing a deceleration in underlying inflation pressures and wage growth. While the ECB offered limited policy guidance for the meetings ahead, ECB President Lagarde did say the central bank was “getting to the end of a monetary policy cycle.”
The ECB also provided updated economic projections. The central bank's GDP growth forecasts were little changed. Regarding prices, the forecasts for headline inflation were lowered on the back of reduced oil prices and a stronger euro. There was little change to the ECB's underlying (CPI ex food and energy) forecasts, although a projection of 1.9% for both 2026 and 2027 suggests, in our view, the ECB maintains a modest easing bias.
We think today's monetary policy announcement supports further monetary easing, though it does not alter our view on the likely pace of ECB rate cuts. We expect a pause from the ECB at its July meeting and a 25 bps rate cut by the ECB in September, which would take the Deposit Rate to 1.75%. While we think the risks are likely tilted toward a more pronounced easing cycle, we do not yet see compelling enough evidence for the ECB to hasten or add to its rate cut cycle.
… And from the Global Wall Street inbox TO the intertubes, a few curated links …
Not yet seen the report for myself but Bloomberg has and I’ll hope to stumble on it over the weekend but …
June 6, 2025 at 10:20 AM UTC Bloomberg: BofA’s Hartnett Says Stocks Are Close to Setting Off Sell Signal
Global stocks are close to triggering a sell signal as both fund inflows and the market breadth are running too hot, says Bank of America Corp. strategist Michael Hartnett.
He cited a data point that stock and high-yield bond inflows have totaled 0.9% of fund managers’ overall assets in the past four weeks. In his view, investors should sell if the ratio increases to more than 1%.
At the same time, about 84% of country indexes are trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages, suggesting the market is in overbought territory, Hartnett said.
Global equities hit a record high this week on optimism around US-China trade negotiations and as robust economic data eased recession fears in the US. The focus later on Friday is on the US jobs report as investors look for confirmation of a healthy labor market.
In terms of flows, global equity funds have attracted about $515 billion so far this year, tracking their second-biggest inflows on record, according to the weekly Bank of America note citing EPFR Global data.
Hartnett has recommended international equities over US stocks, adding that the S&P 500’s rebound is not supported by earnings growth. The index closed Thursday at 5,939.30 points, about 3% below its February record.
… IF / when stocks sell off, wondering / thinkin’ outloud if that will be perfectly timed for Team Rate CUT(s) and setup nicely for rental-to-own (ie LONGS)in FI space …
Before getting long (or short, really), seems as though there’s a new (certainly not new, risk managers have ALWAYS been in charge) boss on Global Walls bond desks …
June 6, 2025 at 9:45 AM UTC Bloomberg: Bond Traders Consult Risk Bosses Daily to Prep for Next Storm
The turmoil that hit markets after Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs may have faded, but the aftershocks roll on in the risk departments of some of the world’s biggest banks.
Traders at Bank of America Corp, NatWest Markets Plc and ABN Amro Bank NV are battening down the hatches — submitting daily risk queries, stress-testing portfolios, shrinking swaps positions. While that’s all aimed at lowering the risk of severe losses, the cautious approach could eat into profits.
The wariness might seem excessive, given the period of relative calm that’s set in since Trump’s assault on global trade in April sent US Treasuries tumbling alongside stocks and drove volatility in the world’s largest bond market to a two-year high. Gauges tracking expected swings in the price of fixed-income assets in Europe and the US are at comparatively low levels.
But even as flip-flopping tariff barbs become a part of the market landscape, a shock to rival April’s moves could be round the corner. A deadline for increasing the US federal debt ceiling is looming, Trump’s tariffs exemption ends on July 9, while concerns about the implications of his deficit-hiking tax bill are mounting.
“We’re in for quite a wild ride,” said Diederik Visser, head of swaps trading at ABN Amro. “One of the challenges the market is facing is that it’s unclear what the reaction is going to be once we move into a period of more significant stress.”
Appetite for longer debt has been fading worldwide, sending yields soaring as investors fret about funding governments’ ambitious spending plans from the US to Japan. Still, there were signs of demand creeping back as soft US economic data lifted Treasuries earlier in the week and an auction of Japanese 30-year debt on Thursday wasn’t as bad as many investors had feared.
The uncertainty has caused ABN Amro’s swaps trading desk to reduce the size of its positions in anticipation of a resurgence in swings, according to Visser. That could come from further signs of deterioration in the US labor market, he said, with non-farm payrolls data due Friday the next big test.
Kal El-Wahab, head of Bank of America’s EMEA linear rates trading, which works with products like bonds, swaps and futures that respond proportionally to interest-rate moves, has been cutting back his team’s riskier wagers over the last four weeks.
He’s concerned about thin summer liquidity exaggerating market moves and the “fragile” state of the global economy. He also warns the popular ‘steepener trade’ — where investors bet on longer-term yields rising more than those on shorter bonds — is looking overcrowded…
…Falling in Tandem The highest volatility in two years for US debt, notched in April, might not sound like a superlative for the ages, but the speed and size of the rout was close to unprecedented.
Treasuries sold off alongside stocks, cryptocurrencies and other risky assets as the bonds’ safe haven role during periods of stress collapsed.
Since that shock, Jared Noering, a 30-year bond-market veteran and global head of fixed income trading at NatWest, has been stress-testing portfolios against another simultaneous rout in equities and bonds.
“We’re running the business with light risk,” Noering said.
As someone who was trading when the dotcom bubble burst, during the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic, he admits to being worried about what’s coming next.
“The beginning of April was a real taster for what could potentially be a very difficult market environment,” he said.
… AllStarCharts (or TrendLabs, whatever) on bonds …
June 5, 2025 TrendLabs: When the Dumb Money Is Selling Bonds
… Look at bonds.
Every time the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has been down near these prices, they’ve come in and bought them:
Every time.
But keep in mind that this time is the only time that matters.
This time is the only time that can pay us.
And, this time, commercial hedgers are buying bonds at extreme rates. That means the dumb money is selling bonds.
So I like bonds for a bounce.
And that’s a good scenario for stocks.
… finally from ZH, ahead of today’s NFP report is something, well, that does possibly hinge on the outcome …
ZH: Goldman Delivers Sobering Rates Outlook For Homebuyers
… This is troubling.
Goldman sees: "Sequential home price growth has slowed."
The key takeaway: Housing affordability remains severely strained, and 7% mortgage rates are shaping up to be the new normal, for now.
AND … it’s Friday and jobs report ‘bout to drop and with summertime upon us, think Hamptons HEDGE but first … here’s what is likely to happen after a long day in whatever trenches you are in, like those of the bond pits of Chicago or trading desks across Global Wall …
