while WE slept: USTs marginally BID; hunt for liquidity continues, 2s10s profits BOOKED (BMO); FCI tighten = 20bps drag on yr ahead growth (DB); economic goalposts moved (lower, MS)
Good morning … was it this much ‘fun’ both Thurs afternoon AND Friday? Amazing, too, how4% 10s continues to … matter … Before I jump in, a quick look ahead to this afternoons auction of $58bb 3yr notes …
3yy DAILY: 3.75% seems psychologically important …
… as momentum has reflexed from overBOUGHT to more middle of the road (non plussed, NO SIGNAL HERE) and that reflex ALSO as yield reflex HIGHER — SIGNAL in price action? This all as front-end yields remain BELOW TLINE drawn in from 2021 which ‘held’ end of 2024 and again earlier this year … WATCHING and willing to consider recent dipORtunity as concession BUT would certainly always like MOAR … perhaps stocks can assist …
… Helpful, too, as many are leaning on 2021 HIGHS in stocks as providing some sort of sticksave (for moment) to see it’s NOT just always and forever all ‘bout the stock jockeys … 3s in mind, lets go …
April 7, 2025 at 11:26 PM EDT Bloomberg: China Vows ‘Fight to the End’ on Tariffs as It Props Up Markets
(Bloomberg) — China pledged to retaliate against Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat and stepped up efforts to support the market, raising the risk of a prolonged trade war between the world’s two largest economies…
… Chinese authorities have signaled their determination to support markets. The central bank has loosened its grip on the yuan to boost the appeal of its exports and a group of state-linked funds known as the national team scooped up assets. Officials also promised loans to help stabilize the market and were reported to have considered frontloading some stimulus…
… hmmm that makes ME think ‘bout our very own PPT. MIA?
The President's Working Group on Financial Markets, known colloquially as the Plunge Protection Team, or "(PPT)" was created by Executive Order 12631,[1] signed on March 18, 1988, by United StatesPresidentRonald Reagan…
… "Plunge Protection Team" was originally the headline for an article in The Washington Post on February 23, 1997,[2] and has since been used by some as an informal term to refer to the Working Group.[3][4] Initially, the term was used to express the opinion that the Working Group was being used to prop up the stock markets during downturns.[5][6] Financial writers for British newspapers The Observer and The Daily Telegraph, along with U.S. Congressman Ron Paul, writers Kevin Phillips (who claims "no personal firsthand knowledge" [7]) and John Crudele,[8] have charged the Working Group with going beyond their legal mandate.[failed verification]Charles Biderman, head of TrimTabs Investment Research, which tracks money flow in the equities market, suspected that following the 2008 financial crisis the Federal Reserve or U.S. government was supporting the stock market. He stated that "If the money to boost stock prices did not come from the traditional players, it had to have come from somewhere else" and "Why not support the stock market as well? Moreover, several officials have suggested the government should support stock prices."[9]
AND with THAT, am not sure WHO or what group to thank but … futures ‘round the world are bid HIGHER and hey, bonds too!
Thank you? I think? China?
As always, more questions than answers so … ALWAYS ask questions.
LOTS of them.
Small BUSINESS is askin’ questions these days …
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index March 2025: Small Business Optimism Slips
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined by 3.3 points in March to 97.4, falling just below the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index decreased eight points from February’s second highest reading to 96.
The implementation of new policy priorities has heightened the level of uncertainty among small business owners over the past few months. Small business owners have scaled back expectations on sales growth as they better understand how these rearrangements might impact them. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg
ChatGPT ain’t gonna be your resource BUT … in price action there’s truth andthis next visual is from Jim Bianco and is of the probability of a rate CUT 1m from yesterday — May 7th — the next FOMC meeting…
… JIM’S POST is worth a read through and it’s important. Yesterday was a BIG ONE and some of you might be able to say YOU were there.
I was ‘there’ the other couple times 10s were DOWN 12bps intraday THEN CLOSED HIGHER by ‘least 12bps SAME DAY (1/23/08, 11/9/2016 and today).
We’ve all been ‘there’ in some way shape or form but yesterday I did NOT have a front row seat — thankfully — tasked with trying to stay on the right side of those wild swings. I miss it and I don’t all at the same time.
I miss the PEOPLE more than the price action and volatility. It was ALWAYS about the interactions and growing / learning from other like-minded macro tourists WHO are also fiduciaries swingin’ around yards of bonds (not literally but a 25mil long bond trade on a day like yesterday COULD make or break a year).
I digress and I was NOT ‘there’ yesterday but appreciate and envy all those who were AND lived to tell the tales…
… in as far as some data — perhaps canary in the coal mine IS in fact, dead?
Monday, Apr 07, 2025 - 08:40 PM ZH: 6-Sigma Miss In Consumer Credit Confirms US Consumer Is Finally Down And Out
… Well, according to the CEOs that Larry Fink talks to, we were in fact correct, and as of today the US is "already in a recession." Another independent confirmation of just that came from today's latest consumer credit report which was shockingly bad: Wall Street was expected a $15BN print, it got a $1BN drop, a massive, 6-sigma miss (far below the lowest estimate)...
... and not only that, but last month's impressive $18.1 billion consumer credit increase was slashed in half to just $8.9 billion.
… while Consumer Credit was funTERtaining, the day defined by THE retaliation …
Monday, Apr 07, 2025 - 08:00 PM ZH: Stocks Gone Wild; Bonds & Gold Dumped As US Dollar Liquidity Fears Grow
… For some context, yields are basically unchanged now since trump unveiled the tariffs, while stocks remain down hard... and the divergence started when China retaliated...
Does make you wonder who's dumping their bonds (and does it rhyme with shiner).
Rate-cut expectations plunged from weekend highs (pricing in 5 cuts) to close the day pricing in just less than 4 cuts...
Although equity risk has surged higher in recent days (cam in a bit today), bond vol screamed higher today...
… here is a snapshot OF USTs as of 623a:
… for somewhat MORE of the news you might be able to use … a few more curated links for your dining and dancing pleasure …
NEWSQUAWK US Market Open: Risk sentiment improves with ES +1.3% whilst USD dips awaiting trade updates … Bonds were initially contained but has recently given way to pressure as the risk tone recovers … USTs are relatively contained after a blockbuster Monday. Thus far, USTs are in relatively narrow 111-21+ to 112-08 parameters and entirely within, but at the lower-end of, Monday’s standout 111-15+ to 114-10 band. As it stands, markets are essentially just waiting for the next major update with the risk tone taking a slight breather from Monday’s marked pressure. Focus primarily on how Trump responds to China. Docket ahead includes US NFIB small business optimism and Fed's Daly.
Finviz (for everything else I might have overlooked …)
Moving from some of the news to some of THE VIEWS you might be able to use… here’s some of what Global Wall St is sayin’ …
The hunt for liquidity continues as 2s10s profits BOOKED …
April 7, 2025 BMO Close: Macro Instability or Hunt for Liquidity?
… The only question of any relevance today was, “what is happening in the long end of the curve?” 10- and 30-year yields were sharply higher as the session came to a close despite a strong start to the day. For context, 10-year yields were as low as 3.869% and as high as 4.212% – a massive range for a no-data Monday with nothing outside of trade war headlines to inspire trading direction. In the long bond, 30-year rates were as low as 4.323% and as high as 4.631%. In such an environment, one can be excused for not having the most compelling explanation for the magnitude of the moves in either direction – at least beyond the obvious conclusion that uncertainty is running exceptionally high and, therefore, particularly choppy price action is ‘reasonable’. Or, at least as reasonable as might be expected for what’s arguably the deepest and most liquid global financial market …
… Raising cash could also be a function of needing liquidity for other strategies – either to offset losses in risk assets or take advantage of perceived dislocations. This interpretation is supported by the absence of any stress in the repo market – suggesting it’s a liquidity-raising event as opposed to a simple, macro-inspired directional move. The real litmus test of this read will be to see how the market trades during the overnight session. In the event that the Treasury market rally resumes, investors will be quick to write-off Monday’s price action as an anomaly as opposed to a breakdown of the ‘risk-on, risk-off’ dynamic …
… As for an update on our trading portfolio, we booked profits on the remaining portion of our 2s/10s steeper position (entered February 5th at 23.3 bp) on Monday at 42.9 bp. It was a milestone session for the benchmark yield spread, as it reached 45.0 bp for its steepest level since May 2022. Daily stochastics are biased for a steeper curve in the nearterm and beyond Monday’s high, we see an isolated steep at 49.3 bp as the only resistance level of note in the path toward 50.0 bp. Should we see a flattening reversal, support is sparse aside from the weekly close from April 4th at 33.6 bp, and below 30.0 bp we see the Liberation Day close of 26.2 bp …
We expect core goods to register their strongest m/m gain since early 2023 in the March CPI report as tariff impacts, primarily from the Trump administration’s 20pp hikes on Chinese imports in Q1, begin to materialize more significantly.
We anticipate core services inflation remaining largely unchanged from February and are monitoring any further weakness in discretionary categories such as airfares and hotels, given recent declines in consumer sentiment.
We project core CPI to increase 0.3% m/m, with likely declines in egg and gasoline prices capping the headline gain at 0.1%. We see April CPI as the first potential data to reveal impacts from the administration’s auto and broader reciprocal tariffs.
Stocks go down, financial conditions tighten. Rates go down, FCI eases … thats how they work … for more …
In this note, we update our high-frequency version of the Fed's FCI-G to quantify the impact on expected growth from recent moves in asset prices. Financial conditions have tightened noticeably since the April 2nd tariff announcements, as the equity selloff and wider spreads have more than offset lower yields and a weaker dollar. The two-day tightening was the sharpest move since March 12, 2020, equivalent to exerting a 20bps drag on the year-ahead growth outlook.
Relative to the recent easiest on December 6, financial conditions have tightened meaningfully, with the baseline three-year lookback version tightening by about 50bps and the alternative one-year version by over a percentage point. These moves imply that financial conditions have gone from being a meaningful tailwind to growth to roughly neutral or even a headwind.
While the recent moves are certainly large, they would either need to be sustained for a meaningful length of time or show signs of impacting market functioning for the Fed to begin signalling their concern about financial conditions. Indeed, Chair Powell did not focus on developments in financial conditions in his speech last Friday.
…Zooming in to look at the market gyrations in the wake of the Trump administration’s tariff announcements, our daily version of the Fed’s FCI-G experienced the sharpest two-day tightening since March 12, 2020, increasing by over two tenths. In terms of the drivers, equities fell by almost 11% in the two days after tariffs were announced (tightening conditions), while the dollar depreciated by 0.8% (easing conditions). The 10y moved lower by about 20bps while mortgage and corporate spreads widened by 7 and 22bps respectively.
Taken together, lower equities and wider spreads generated the tightening in financial conditions with some offsetting easing in conditions from the dollar and a lower 10y yield. If sustained for a full quarter, the two-day moves in equities and spreads would be expected to tighten conditions by 30bps, with the lower 10y and dollar depreciation offsetting about a third of that.
While the daily moves are certainly large, they would either need to be sustained for a meaningful length of time or show signs of impacting market functioning for the Fed to begin signalling their concern about financial conditions. Indeed, Chair Powell did not focus on developments in financial conditions in his speech last Friday.
… so said another way, move in rates kinda underwhelming.
Overdue for recession …?
April 7, 2025 First Trust: Tariffs, the Economy, and Stocks
The Federal Reserve started raising short-term interest rates three years ago and the M2 measure of the money supply – what Milton Friedman said to focus on – soon started declining, hitting bottom in late 2023.
One of the great mysteries of the past two years is why, given tighter money, economic growth didn’t slow down, much less hit a recession. One reason was that the federal government was engaging in the most reckless deficit spending in our lifetimes. Don’t get us wrong, we don’t believe government spending is good for the economy in the long-run. But, in the short-run, it can make things feel better…
…In the meantime, the economy has suddenly shifted from being artificially held up by overly large budget deficits to being exposed to temporary pain. Right now, it looks like US Real GDP will be roughly flat to down in the first quarter (initial release on April 30). And now consumers have to pay more for foreign goods, at the same time that businesses that might think of avoiding tariffs by putting or expanding operations in the US have to worry about how long the new tariff policies will stay in place. Why build a new plant here if the tariffs might be gone by the time you finish? As a result, recession risk is rising and we already thought a recession was overdue earlier this year.
Obviously, the tariffs have been the catalyst behind the recent drop in stock prices. And stocks may go lower from here. But stocks were overvalued even before the tariffs and if tariffs weren’t the trigger for the drop in stocks, something else would have been. That’s why we were willing to stick our necks out late last year and forecast 5,200 on the S&P 500 for this year while the rest of the industry was telling their clients stocks were headed higher.
Depending on the outlook for earnings, the S&P 500 is now basically at fair value, a major change from where it’s been for the past few years.
April 7, 2025 MS: Global Macro Commentary: April 7
Market volatility amid trade developments; largest intraday swing in S&P 500 since March 2020; perplexing UST bear-steepening; soft Japan labor data; CNH weakens amid potential new tariffs; Fed's Kugler sees inflation as more pressing issue; DXY at 103.50 (+0.5%); US 10y at 4.184% (+18.9bp)
… As US equity losses stabilize to some extent, USTs sharply sell off in an aggressive bear-steepening that lacks clear catalysts (2y: +11bp; 30y: +21bp); 30y SOFR swap spreads tighten ~6bpbp to -89.5bp …
With the perplexing move in the curve comes also an updated forecast …
April 8, 2025 MS: U.S. Economics and Public Policy: US outlook: Living on the edge
We revise our outlook for the US economy in the direction of even slower growth and a sharp firming of inflation. Inflation rising above the 2% target by more than employment falls short of maximum employment means the Fed is on hold until 2026. A recession would bring cuts forward into 2025.
Key takeaways
We expect reciprocal tariffs to go into effect, but we think there is scope for some rates to be negotiated lower into year end.
We now look for growth in real GDP of 0.8% (Q4/Q4) this year and 0.7% next, down from 1.5% and 1.2% previously.
Headline and core PCE inflation firms to 3.4% and 3.9% by year end, about a full percentage point higher than before. The peak impulse is in Q3 2025.
The unemployment rate rises to 4.9%, though most of that occurs in 2026. Immigration controls mean its harder to push the unemployment rate higher.
In a sluggish growth outlook with high inflation, we do not foresee Fed cuts until March 2026. A recession could mean earlier and larger up-front cuts.
REMEMBER — NARRATIVE ALWAYS FOLLOWS PRICE.
Same shop before the revision WAS thinking trickle down theory and wealth effect … from Friday (which I may have missed) a prelude to a revised / moved goalpost …
April 4, 2025 MS: U.S. Economics: Wealth effects and consumption dynamics
Investor sentiment shifted rapidly, bringing questions about transmission channels for downside risks. One potential channel is negative wealth effects. A significant correction in equities, though not our base case, could mean upper income consumers pull back spending, threatening the expansion.
Key takeaways
Household net wealth is up $52tn since the pandemic. Rising wealth underpinned the substantial rebound in consumption, fueling large scale re-employment.
Consumption finished 2024 in line with its wealth-influenced target. If equity prices tumbled, high-income consumers are likely to respond by increasing saving.
Substantial declines in asset prices change household behavior. We think "substantial" means something similar to the average US bear market (~30%).
A drop in net wealth of this magnitude could drag consumption growth lower by 1.3pp after two quarters and 0.8pp on average over four quarters.
This is the isolated wealth effect. Weak cyclical fundamentals would likely slow consumption growth further since half of bear markets coincide with recessions.
Financial markets swung wildly yesterday on apparently false reports of a 90-day halt to US trade taxes (except for China). The volatility highlights two problems. Erratic policymaking means stories of dramatic shifts in policy are credible. The move toward Schlesinger’s “imperial presidency” model means policy shifts depend on the whims of one person. These make fake news plausible, creating market volatility.
Such uncertainty is a real world concern. Financial investment decisions can normally be reversed quickly, usually reclaiming some of the original investment. Neither is true with real world business investment. If firms believe policy is both erratic and imperial, the risks around real economy investing increase and investment declines.
US President Trump threatened further tax increases on US consumers, with an additional 50% tax on imports from China. Rerouting supply chains becomes a viable avoidance mechanism (again) at such levels. Japan is the first major country to negotiate with the US. That prioritization feels like a throwback to the trading environment of the 1980s.
As with the pandemic, economic data is of limited use (referencing the before times, not the aftermath of the shock). However, the US March NFIB business sentiment poll might suggest whether concerns about the economy are penetrating the partisan media bubble.
Speaking of asking questions, here’s an excellent one to be thinkin’ bout and asking nowadays …
April 7, 2025 Wells Fargo: When Will Quantitative Tightening End?
Summary
At its meeting on March 18-19, the FOMC announced that it would be slowing the pace of its balance sheet runoff effective April 1. The monthly cap on Treasury security runoff was reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion, while the monthly cap on mortgage-backed security (MBS) runoff was left unchanged at $35 billion.
The decision to slow quantitative tightening (QT) reflects the Committee's efforts to balance two competing demands. On the one hand, money market conditions generally remain well-behaved, and bank reserves are unchanged over the past year. Taken in isolation, these factors argue for full steam ahead on QT.
However, the Federal Reserve already has shrunk its security holdings by more than $2 trillion since QT began in June 2022, and conditions in funding markets can change rapidly, as evidenced by the September 2019 repo market disruption. Furthermore, debt ceiling dynamics are leading to an artificial and temporary boost to bank reserves at present. These factors argue for a more cautious approach to additional balance sheet runoff.
Continued QT and an eventual resolution to the debt ceiling should push bank reserves below the key $3 trillion threshold by year-end. Accordingly, we look for QT to run at its current pace through the end of the year and then cease. Starting in 2026, we expect the Federal Reserve to keep its balance sheet flat through roughly the middle of the year. At that point, we project bank reserves would be roughly $2.8 trillion, and we would expect balance sheet growth to resume to keep the reserves-to-GDP ratio steady around 9%.
Under this scenario, cumulative balance sheet runoff would be just shy of $2.5 trillion—a reduction in the central bank's security holdings that exerts 20-40 bps of upward pressure on long-term interest rates.
Note that even if aggregate balance sheet runoff ceases, that does not mean that balance sheet policy has shifted to neutral. If the Fed's balance sheet is held flat for an extended period of time, then it will still be shrinking as a share of GDP.
Furthermore, the composition of the balance sheet can continue to evolve such that policy accommodation is still being removed. We look for MBS runoff to continue indefinitely as the Federal Reserve strives to reduce its mortgage holdings and slowly return to holding primarily Treasury securities. In order to keep the total balance sheet unchanged amid ongoing MBS runoff, we look for the Federal Reserve to start buying Treasury securities such that they replace MBS paydowns one-for-one. Returning to a primarily Treasury security portfolio would reduce the support that the central bank lends to the mortgage market.
Another factor to consider is the weighted-average maturity of the central bank's Treasury security holdings. Slowly replacing MBS with shorter-dated Treasury securities, such as Treasury bills, would re-weight the Fed's balance sheet away from longer-dated securities and toward shorter-dated securities, putting some very modest upward pressure on longer-term yields, all else equal.
… note to self, an end to QT equivalent TO an … ease?
… And from the Global Wall Street inbox TO the intertubes, a few curated links …
Something very unusual happened in financial markets yesterday. Long-term interest rates went up 20 basis points despite stocks going down. One potential reason for the move higher in rates is an unwind of the basis trade.
The basis is the difference in price between a Treasury security and a Treasury futures contract with similar characteristics.
The source of this price difference is demand and supply imbalances in Treasury markets, or arbitrage limitations for regulatory reasons.
In the basis trade, hedge funds put on leveraged bets, sometimes up to 100 times, with the goal of profiting from the convergence between the futures price and the bond price, as the futures contract approaches expiry.
How big is the basis trade? It is currently around $800 billion and an important part of the $2 trillion outstanding in prime brokerage balances. It will continue to expand as US government debt levels continue to grow, see charts below.
Why is this a problem? Because the cash-futures basis trade is a potential source of instability. In case of an exogenous shock, the highly leveraged long positions in cash Treasury securities by hedge funds are at risk of being rapidly unwound. Such an unwind would have to be absorbed, in the short run, by a broker-dealer that itself is capital-constrained. This could lead to a significant disruption in market functions of broker-dealer firms, such as providing liquidity to the secondary market for Treasuries and intermediating the market for repo borrowing and lending. For example, during Covid, the Fed was at the peak buying $100 billion in Treasuries every day.
In addition, if the supply of Treasuries grows further, for example, because of a growing budget deficit or the Fed doing quantitative tightening, it will potentially depress Treasury prices, hurting the long leg of the trade, and stress repo funding, as dealers have limited balance sheet capacity.
The bottom line is that the large and growing cash-futures basis trade, driven by leveraged hedge fund positions in Treasuries, poses a risk due to potential market disruptions and liquidity issues, especially in the event of an exogenous shock or increasing Treasury supply.
Ah yes … the end of the beginning …
April 8, 2025 at 5:05 AM UTC Bloomberg: Manic Monday Looks Like the End of the Beginning There was a breather in the Lehman crisis, too, but the low was months away.
… AND a view from The Terminal dot com…
April 8, 2025 at 8:30 AM UTC| Mohamed A. El-Erian , Columnist Bloomberg: The Fed Must Resist Repeating Past Mistakes Markets have been trained to expect lower rates at the first sign of volatility. Powell mustn’t give in to temptation.
… Having failed to bring inflation back down to its often-repeated target three years after annual consumer price rises topped 9%, the Fed faces the risk of protracted inflation that would quickly undermine its efforts to counter the potential rise in unemployment. Moreover, lessons from central banking history suggest that when faced with both parts of the dual mandate going against it, the Fed should give priority to putting the inflation genie back in the bottle.
This is a particularly relevant consideration in the current situation where the sensitivity of unemployment to interest rates pales in comparison to the uncertainties companies and households feel due to the manner tariff policy has been designed, communicated and implemented. Indeed, to quote the guidance provided on Bloomberg Television last week by Eric Rosengren, the former president of the Boston Fed, the issue of rate cuts should be approached “slowly, gradually and reluctantly.”..
Finally, from Terminal dot com a challenge (accepted at this weeks auctions?)
April 8, 2025 at 10:03 AM UTC Bloomberg Markets Daily: Earnings risk Analysts have already started cutting their 2025 estimates
… For the first quarter, analysts now see earnings growth of 6.7% for S&P 500 companies, down from about 11.1% in early November when Trump was elected, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. For all of 2025, they see profits rising 9.4%, compared with a projection of 12.5% at the beginning of the year …
Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury have tumbled about 40 basis points this year, briefly pushed below 4% Monday by Trump’s barrage of tariffs that economists say raise the risk of a recession.
In contrast, rates in both Europe and Japan have gone up. In Germany, the 10-year bund at 2.61% reflects the prospect of a flood of bond issuance as the government ramps up defense spending. Meanwhile, the rate on 10-year Japanese bonds has soared after spending years around zero and is now at 1.25% as investors brace for tighter monetary policy there.
While both are still well below Treasury yields, they’re at levels that makes them look more attractive than Treasuries to European and Japanese investors who hedge their dollar exposure when buying US securities. That might entice investors to shift allocations to their home markets, where the policy outlook appears more stable.
“The idea that various of the administration’s policies could undermine foreign demand for Treasuries has been gaining currency,” said Matthew Raskin, head of US rates research at Deutsche Bank.
It all adds up to a world where US exceptionalism no longer is the dominant theme, with potentially momentous long-term implications: Deutsche Bank warns of a “confidence crisis” in the dollar, while UBS sees a shot in the arm to the euro’s status as a global reserve currency…
Volume … and lots of it …
Apr 7, 2025 BESPOKE: Market Stats from Another Wild Day
… After falling more than 10% on Thursday and Friday last week, S&P futures were down significantly last night into this morning. After trading in a high/low range of 8.5% today, the S&P 500 closed the day down a whopping 0.23%!
As shown below, we opened basically right at the -20% threshold for bear market territory, quickly traded much lower, then rallied across most of the rest of the day to finish flat …
… The oldest, most widely followed ETF that tracks the S&P 500 -- SPY -- traded a record $127 billion in volume today!
A flat day today was better than nothing for the bulls, but we're still deeply oversold after last week's crash.
Finally, able to say you were THERE yesterday …
Apr 7, 2025 WolfST: 10-Year Treasury Yield Snaps Back Brutally, Stocks Go Crazy, S&P 500 Spikes 8.5% then Plunges Back in 1 Hour on Fake News
Treacherous markets. But they did seem to catch their breath finally. Stocks are due for a big bounce.
… The 10-year Treasury yield jumped by 22 basis points in regular hours on Monday, the biggest jump since June 13, 2022, to 4.22%, after having shot up by 13 basis points intraday on Friday, from 3.87% at the low point Friday morning to 4.0% at the close on Friday. From Friday morning through Monday afternoon, the 10-year yield has shot up by 35 basis points.
…Today’s move was the biggest since Monday June 13, 2022, which occurred after the CPI report on Friday June 10 had blown everyone’s doors off with a month-to-month spike of 1.0% (12.7% annualized) and a year-over-year spike of 8.7%. This was serious inflation. On June 15, 2022, the Fed showed that it finally took this inflation seriously as well by hiking 75 basis points.
And today’s move was the second biggest move since March 2020, when the Treasury market was in total turmoil:
Is BTC/Cryptos the Tulip Bubble of our times? As Tesla's and their dealerships are attacked find myself dwelling on "Extraordinary popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" evermore. Extra Uber looking forward to Lacy's quarterly thoughts!!!
Is BTC/Cryptos the Tulip Bubble of our times? As Tesla's and their dealerships are attacked find myself dwelling on "Extraordinary popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" evermore. Extra Uber looking forward to Lacy's quarterly thoughts!!!