while we slept; sings of USTs cracking; BREAK'in up the MOVE; summer's a gRIND; curve on recession watch
thebondbeat.substack.com
Good morning … Markets are quietly and aggressively UNCH. Mixed. From a friend, Asian equities were lower while European equities bounced higher. The Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Shanghai Composite were all about 1.5% lower overnight. European bourses were 1.5% to 2% higher across the board while U.S. equity futures are largely unchanged. Credit spreads seem mixed this morning with IG hinting tighter and European crossover leaning wider, a modest decoupling with European equity markets this morning. European sovereign markets are also mixed with gilts lagging to the downside, 2.7 bps cheaper and German bunds slightly weaker. Italy, Sweden, Swiss, and Greece have rallied a touch and Ausi govt. bonds rallied 14 basis points. Eurodollar futures are also mixed with the front end of the curve out to late 2023 a couple basis points cheaper but longer term dates richer. U.S. Treasury curve also bifurcated as both the front and long ends lag the belly. 5s/30s is 1.3 bps steeper but 2s/5s is 2.4 bps flatter and we've had the sense that the front end is running out of steam with 2s/3s and 3s vs. the curve with modest flattening biases since last week. Directionless across markets.
while we slept; sings of USTs cracking; BREAK'in up the MOVE; summer's a gRIND; curve on recession watch
while we slept; sings of USTs cracking…
while we slept; sings of USTs cracking; BREAK'in up the MOVE; summer's a gRIND; curve on recession watch
Good morning … Markets are quietly and aggressively UNCH. Mixed. From a friend, Asian equities were lower while European equities bounced higher. The Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Shanghai Composite were all about 1.5% lower overnight. European bourses were 1.5% to 2% higher across the board while U.S. equity futures are largely unchanged. Credit spreads seem mixed this morning with IG hinting tighter and European crossover leaning wider, a modest decoupling with European equity markets this morning. European sovereign markets are also mixed with gilts lagging to the downside, 2.7 bps cheaper and German bunds slightly weaker. Italy, Sweden, Swiss, and Greece have rallied a touch and Ausi govt. bonds rallied 14 basis points. Eurodollar futures are also mixed with the front end of the curve out to late 2023 a couple basis points cheaper but longer term dates richer. U.S. Treasury curve also bifurcated as both the front and long ends lag the belly. 5s/30s is 1.3 bps steeper but 2s/5s is 2.4 bps flatter and we've had the sense that the front end is running out of steam with 2s/3s and 3s vs. the curve with modest flattening biases since last week. Directionless across markets.