Good morning / afternoon / evening - please choose whichever one which best describes when ever it may be that YOU are stumbling across this weekends note…
not crazy at all and the 'chess match' which is the daily bond mkt ALWAYS shape shifts. calculus at moment seems to ME to be higher tariffs lean more STAGflationary and a healthy dose of uncertainty and lower economic output + increased uncertainty weighs on growth and Fed can't cut, maybe hands are tied and without providing support, maybe economically things get worse? that is an easy expression long duration (so, flattening curve?) but if (big IF) a headline breaks right for '47, things work and Fed can get back involved, cutting (?) so magically ushering in bullish STEEPENING (long 2s -- which JPM suggesting they are tactically short?) ... truth is i do NOT know. and I believe they (Global Wall) doesn't either. YOUR guess better than mine (and theirs)!!
February was great month for the Bond Market...
How much do Bond buyers love
Tariffs ???
Extrapolation: can Trump increase tariffs enough to force the Feds hand
on rate cuts ???
I'm not advocating that, but....
The new "knee jerk" trade is higher tariffs breed higher Bond prices and lower yields...
Who needs Jerome Powell, when
you have Trump and Bessett.
They might be smarter than people
think....Crazy, like a Fox....
not crazy at all and the 'chess match' which is the daily bond mkt ALWAYS shape shifts. calculus at moment seems to ME to be higher tariffs lean more STAGflationary and a healthy dose of uncertainty and lower economic output + increased uncertainty weighs on growth and Fed can't cut, maybe hands are tied and without providing support, maybe economically things get worse? that is an easy expression long duration (so, flattening curve?) but if (big IF) a headline breaks right for '47, things work and Fed can get back involved, cutting (?) so magically ushering in bullish STEEPENING (long 2s -- which JPM suggesting they are tactically short?) ... truth is i do NOT know. and I believe they (Global Wall) doesn't either. YOUR guess better than mine (and theirs)!!
By Crazy, I was talking from the Corporate Media's perspective.
I support Trump and Bessett's strategy...of Tariffs and their focus on the 10yr yield.
I like the "new" direction of the Bond Market....
Appreciate your thoughts, very much....