(light volume belly-led selloff overnight) while WE slept; EPBMacro update; GDP delusions -UBS; copper / gold; M2 growth slowing = PIVOT
thebondbeat.substack.com
Good morning … New Homes PLUNGE as rates RESURGED (ZH); Bank of Canada Under Delivers with 50 bp hike (via BMO on BoC), … Adding to the bullish tone in Treasuries that brought 10-year yields as low as 3.99% this morning was the Bank of Canada, which hiked rates 50 bp compared to the 75 bp consensus. This brought policy rates to 3.75% from 3.25%. The move was widely read as a dovish hike and the Bank noted "Future rate increases will be influenced by our assessments of how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflationary expectations are responding." We're not interpreting this as putting 50 bp on the table for the Fed next week, but decreasing the pace of hikes incrementally supports the case for the Fed to scale back to 50 bp in December.
(light volume belly-led selloff overnight) while WE slept; EPBMacro update; GDP delusions -UBS; copper / gold; M2 growth slowing = PIVOT
(light volume belly-led selloff overnight…
(light volume belly-led selloff overnight) while WE slept; EPBMacro update; GDP delusions -UBS; copper / gold; M2 growth slowing = PIVOT
Good morning … New Homes PLUNGE as rates RESURGED (ZH); Bank of Canada Under Delivers with 50 bp hike (via BMO on BoC), … Adding to the bullish tone in Treasuries that brought 10-year yields as low as 3.99% this morning was the Bank of Canada, which hiked rates 50 bp compared to the 75 bp consensus. This brought policy rates to 3.75% from 3.25%. The move was widely read as a dovish hike and the Bank noted "Future rate increases will be influenced by our assessments of how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflationary expectations are responding." We're not interpreting this as putting 50 bp on the table for the Fed next week, but decreasing the pace of hikes incrementally supports the case for the Fed to scale back to 50 bp in December.