And another thing … recession, how much EASING, ISM and GDP (prolly nuthin’…)
thebondbeat.substack.com
In addition to what the sellside is selling (earlier), a few words and a chart from a rather large German bank reiterating some of their ideas and conclusions… … It's all about recession now, argues George Saravelos. Last week marked a regime shift in the market: moving away from higher inflation to imminent recession risk. US GDP trackers for Q2 have now turned negative meaning the US economy may already be meeting the definition of a technical recession. Key for markets is that the central bank pivot won't come until the labour market slows, even if goods inflation decelerates first. It may only be a matter of time, but that is the key variable.
And another thing … recession, how much EASING, ISM and GDP (prolly nuthin’…)
And another thing … recession, how much…
And another thing … recession, how much EASING, ISM and GDP (prolly nuthin’…)
In addition to what the sellside is selling (earlier), a few words and a chart from a rather large German bank reiterating some of their ideas and conclusions… … It's all about recession now, argues George Saravelos. Last week marked a regime shift in the market: moving away from higher inflation to imminent recession risk. US GDP trackers for Q2 have now turned negative meaning the US economy may already be meeting the definition of a technical recession. Key for markets is that the central bank pivot won't come until the labour market slows, even if goods inflation decelerates first. It may only be a matter of time, but that is the key variable.