OECD update; J&J boosters; travel restrictions easing; PRICE LEVELS, TECHS
Good morning. HERE are a few observations of price action and some levels I will be watching ahead of this afternoon's liquidity event (20yr auction), tomorrows FOMC meeting ({DOTS <go>} or HERE for Fed calendar, where they will offer updated links, all ahead of month, QUARTERS END.
Re FOMC and NovTAPER), Wrightson: The opportunity to taper on the same day that the Treasury launches a sustained cutback in coupon auction sizes may be too good to pass up...
20yy range 1.87 - 1.72, vs 10s30s still watching 48bps - 42bps
RBC: Bond Bears Bide Their Time … A corresponding break above a triple top at 1.38 in US 10-year year yields would also add more weight to our bottoming thesis…
CSFB: stay NEUTRAL 30s, short 5s and seller of 10s on break above 1.38
CitiFX also notes importance of 1.38 10s while BBG (Ira Jersey) notes, … A Break of 1.27% on 10-Year Yield Targets 1.22%
Kimble asks (Doc Copper Sending A Historic Bearish Message To Stocks?) and Cam Crise (BBG) notes Iron Ore and Copper (... you’ve gotta wonder if we aren’t looking at a potential Wile E. Coyote moment here)
All of this is on top of OECD update (inflation to rise and then moderate -- see it how you want), J&J booster efficacy, travel restrictions to be eased somewhat etc ... All of this is at least PART of overnight risk ON bid which is KEEPING RATES RANGEBOUND, providing some concession / relief ahead of 20yr auction.
Have a point and click and note next update likely THURSDAY after the FOMC meeting allowing time for markets reflex and the dust to settle. Keep in mind that Wednesday evening, cash UST trading CLOSED (Autumnal Equinox Day Japan) so liquidity will be impaired. Again. Here to help with any / all duration, hedges and all general needs along the way! … Best, Steve