(Major)push back (10s to 1%); China back 2nite; Deal/NO deal? and more...
Good morning.
I continue to unpack all sorts of boxes and I while I am still be searching for the cord to my printer, I did find several things that may be of interest in my inBOX. I've got some links and things to consider ahead of tomorrows NFP (Likely not THE most important one ever, despite what they tell us). With rates aggressively UNCH on below avg volumes (China back this evening from holiday), TODAY you'll find
30yy oversold, another UST supply DOUBLE-HEADER, Steve Majors latest bond letter (#12. Push back ... we continue to believe longer-run fair value for 10-year US Treasury yields is nearer to 1.0% than 2.0% ...) and more than a few things on Mitch's deal, STAGflation (NOT Jefferies base case, read why) and as you'll ALSO note a GS commentary on OIL and BREAKEVEN PRICING. Oil and BE clearly matters as does CSFB breaking down the meaning of it all to household (wealth, savings and the push me / pull you cross currents of the moment).
And more...Have at IT and a great start to your Thursday. Let me know however I can help as you prepare (positions, duration, hedges etc) ahead of NFP.
China back TONIGHT: Traders Hold Breath as China Markets to Reopen After Holiday (BBG)
Deal / NO DEAL? Who knows: *DEMOCRATS NOT SEEKING DEBT LIMIT INCREASE TO FEBRUARY: AIDE
Lets be careful out there. (Sgt Phil Esterhaus, Hill St. Blues)