In between games awaiting our birds arrival from the oven, I thought I’d pass along some info/graphics from the inbox detailing the expense of the feast about to be had by much of the USA
… If the American Farm Bureau Federation is right, then your Thanksgiving meal this year will be the most expensive on record, up +13.7% since last year, the second highest increase in the 36 years they have run the survey, only behind the +16.8% increase in 1990.
Over the very long term agriculture prices tend to decline in real terms. A look at p.43 of our last annual long-term study (link here) shows that wheat for example has an annual real return of -1.1% p.a. over the last 150 years. However as the second line on the chart from the FAO (UN Food & Agriculture Organization) shows, real international food prices have climbed to their highest since 1975 after last year being lower than where they were when their data started in 1961.
So even food, which normally falls in price in real terms over the long run, is soaring in price in 2021. Inflation is becoming more and more broad based across the economy as we hit the home straight of this year.
The ability to enjoy a day and meal, the way in which we all are, friends family and in good health, is truly something to be thankful for…enjoy.