The following Reuters story from earlier this morning was just pointed out to me and I thought worth leaving here as we collectively attempt to craft plausible EXCUSES of price action … One said excuse I’ve found instructive over the years is seasonality.
December 1, 2021
Analysis: History says expect strong December for U.S. stocks
… Since 1950, the index has gained an average of 1.7% in December when the S&P 500 has climbed at least 20% in the rest of the year, compared with an average of 1.5% for December overall …
Back on 20th Feb 2021 I offered some thoughts and links thru to David Ader — best in the biz — offered a few words on BOND MARKET seasonals via Bloomberg.com
Don't Count Out Seasonal Patterns to Predict Rates
Yields tend to rise into May and June, and drop toward the end of year; 2017 may be no exception.
By David Ader
January 3, 2017, 6:00 PM EST
… There is, however, one simple technique that has proved very reliable when trying to provide a year-ahead outlook: monitoring seasonal patterns in interest rates and the yield curve. Simply put, there is a strong tendency for yields to rise into the May-June period and drop heavily into the end of year …
Imagine a world in which both stocks AND bonds are ‘rallying’ into years end. Despite or because of their respective (and shared) facts.