Core PCE in some historical FED context. UoMICH FEATURED chart ...
Oh and a Fed Supervision and Regulation Report (C&I lending financing the biz cycle...?)
An interesting report released from the Fed a few moments ago as Core PCE …
AND UoMICH Sentiment Index (HERE) …
(UoMICH FEATURED CHART — worth letting sink in) …
… were crossing the wires.
Federal Reserve Supervision and Regulation Report producing h’lines like this on The Terminal:
*ARCHEGOS REVEALED WEAKNESS IN MARGIN PRACTICES, FED SAYS
*FED OUTLINES ARCHEGOS ASSESSMENT IN SUPERVISION REPORT
*GLOBAL COORDINATION NEEDED POST-ARCHEGOS, FED SAYS IN REPORT
As funtertaining as these h’lines are, it’s this one which remains cause for pause:
*BANK LOAN GROWTH REMAINS WEAK, FED SAYS IN REGULATION REPORT
There could be very GOOD excuses / explanations — who needs a loan when your bank account is topped off (stimmy) OR who wants to borrow with these now much HIGHER than historically LOW RATES of a few short weeks ago?
CNBC: Unusual holiday home-buying surge pushes mortgage demand higher
An unusual surge in home buying, just as the market enters the historically slow holiday season, is driving mortgage demand higher.
Mortgage demand from home buyers rose for the third straight week.
Mortgage applications to refinance a home loan were essentially flat, rising just 0.4% from the previous week.
Back TO The FED report and Archegos h’lines. HERE is LINK to the report where you’ll find this on p14 (of 42):
… C&I loans fell in the second quarter of this year, driven by PPP loan forgiveness (figure 7).
Falling in Q2 doesn’t seem overly worrisome. Drivers OF said drop and the overall TREND seem a bit MORE concerning, IMO.
I will never forget a banker who once reminded me … C&I lending is essentially the financing OF the business cycle…food for thought with NO leftovers to enjoy on Friday!