20yy -- levels to consider
Good morning. Putting aside news (Mtg Apps DOWN as 'refi demand continues its free fall as rates rise again' -CNBC; starts down, PERMITS UP) and other quasi-facts and VIEWS, I thought I'd take a moment to look at PRICE developments ahead of this afternoons LIQUIDITY EVENT...
From a more technical lense, 20yrs are cheapening but not YET to a level, in my view, that hands down requires a FADE (ie BUY) ... But certainly getting there.
OUTRIGHT: momentum REMAINS BEARISH input and we've hit (breaking) TLINE (2.07) next level to watch would be OCT 'cheaps' (2.13) which looks to be just beneath where higher VOLUME occurred:
20s vs 10s30s: momentum bearish, (daily)TLINE (46bps) support BROKEN, next level I'd watch is ~48.5bps ... CHEAPENING, less to be offered in near future (as far as we know and until / unless DC cobbles together some green new deal needs to ramp back UP?):
Some food for thought and a couple excerpts of early auction talk I’ve seen so far
SINadel: ... We would expect that the market requires a concession and tail to digest the supply ...
DB: ... The October auction tailed by a record 2.7bp and the bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.25 from 2.36 in the previous month ...